Who Wins if the Deal Succeeds? Iran Benefits as Rivals Look On with Dread

For the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a pact has been signed between a US and an Iranian president.

While supporters hail it as the "deal of the century," Tehran’s Middle Eastern rivals view it as the "curse of the century." The agreement stands to leave Iran more secure, legitimized, and influential than before.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the interim accord, bringing a three-month war to a halt.

Signed at the Palace of Versailles on the sidelines of the G7 summit, the 14-point agreement extends the ceasefire across all fronts—including Lebanon—for 60 days to allow for broader negotiations on permanent solutions, including Iran's nuclear program.

"This is a grand bargain from which there is no turning back," said Lebanese analyst Sarkis Naoum. "Sanctions-stricken Iran can no longer bear the economic strain, and Trump has no appetite for a new war."

A Major Blow to Israel
Describing the development as a strategic "catastrophe," Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz remarked, "We set out to overthrow the Iranian regime with US backing, and instead, Washington has handed them legitimacy and strength."

If the deal holds, Iran emerges as the primary beneficiary. Alongside an end to the fighting, a phased lifting of sanctions, and access to oil exports and reconstruction funds, Tehran secures recognition for its political system. Conversely, the core objectives of Washington and Israel have fallen short.

The sharpest anxieties are rippling through the Persian Gulf states, where past Iranian attacks had already shaken long-term confidence in their security framework.

The Gulf states have emerged as the chief casualties of this conflict—relegated to mere spectators of decisions that alter their strategic environment, and now forced to live with the fallout.

Gulf sources indicate that the agreement is already reshaping their strategic calculations. Reliance on the US security umbrella is waning, Iran’s status as a regional powerhouse is cementing, and the trajectory is tilting away from confrontation toward accommodation.

However, Iran expert Alex Vatanka downplays these fears. Rather than viewing the move as a capitulation, he argues it was the least damaging option available after years of failed coercion.

Israel Remains the Wild Card
Some analysts view Israel as the ultimate wild card in this shifting landscape. While they may not be able to entirely derail a process spearheaded by Trump, experts warn that significant risks remain—particularly on the Lebanese front.