Live Tv
Rtv Plus
China’s economic data again under the microscope
International desk
03 Dec 2023, 16:24
- National Bureau of Statistics said some regions in Guizhou province had falsified data, while county governments in Shaanxi province had intervened in data gathering
- The bureau inspected several provinces in summer amid an effort to improve data accuracy, while another round of visits started earlier last month
China’s statistics authority has issued a fresh warning to local authorities over fabricating statistics and intervening in data gathering to overinflate performance as part of a latest bid to improve data accuracy and help refine Beijing’s economic decision-making.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday indicated that some regions in the southwestern province of Guizhou were still falsifying data, while it said that some county governments in the northwestern Shaanxi province had intervened in data gathering.
But the bureau did not provide names and the data involved, or reveal any punishments, according to two statements published on its website.
Analysts have long been concerned over the accuracy and authenticity of China’s data, as well as a lack of transparency, while internally, Beijing needs reliable figures to guide its policy direction.
The bureau inspected several provinces in summer, including Hebei, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hunan, Guizhou and Shaanxi, to ensure raw economic data was being gleaned from genuine businesses and had not been inflated by officials.
A new round of visits started earlier last month, with another six provinces as well as the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Natural Resources inspected.
A twice-a-decade nationwide economic census of businesses and households has also started, which is hoped would provide information on the post-Covid landscape as well as highlight the losses businesses suffered due to China’s zero-Covid policy.
“Data reliability is fundamentally important for rational policymaking, as well as for business decision-making,” said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
“It’s definitely in the government’s interest to ensure maximum data reliability.”
In meetings with local officials, the statistics bureau said that some city and county level officials in Henan province lacked a full understanding of the “extreme criticality and exigencies” of data authenticity.
They had also delayed amending falsified data, according to media reports in China.
NBS director Kang Yi was also quoted as saying that some county governments padded gross domestic product and other economic statistics as part of “macroeconomic management”.
Local officials tend to inflate economic figures to boost their promotion prospects or because they are under pressure to meet economic growth targets.
The widening local government debt crisis has also led to increased efforts to falsify data.
Amid rising debt, property slump, data may be China’s next financial hurdle
In a rare move in October, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress warned some asset quality data at small and medium-sized financial institutions did not “truly reflect the actual situation”.
Beijing has previously punished officials and overhauled data collection and reporting systems, including centralised data preparation and announcements at state and provincial levels.
Chen at the University of Hong Kong said a structural way would be to make the statistics bureaus independent of political interference.
“This is doable if Beijing is really serious about rational policymaking,” he added.
The NBS has collected an increasing amount of its data, including industrial output, directly from large enterprises or through surveys.
Source: South China Morning Post
Comments
Online Income Tax Return Filing Number Exceeded 50,000
From this system, taxpayers can pay taxes through Internet banking, card payment (debit or credit card), and mobile banking and get the facility of downloading and printing copies of submitted returns, receipts, income tax certificates, and TIN certificates. You can also download and print the e-return filed for the previous year.
Spontaneous and motivated taxpayers have already used the e-return option on the National Board of Revenue (NBR) portal till October 2 due to its ease and convenience. As a result, the number of online income tax return filings has crossed 50,000.
NBR Director (Public Relations) Syed A Mu'men told the media that the e-return registration process has already been made more tax-payer-friendly. A biometric SIM registered with a taxpayer's national identity card is required for successful registration. To verify whether the number used by the taxpayer is biometrically registered or not, dial *16001#.
NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said that all transactions of NBR will be converted into digital form so that taxpayers can get fast and quality services. That is why our activities are ongoing.
He further said that NBR will work towards digital transformation in the coming months, e-return service center is a part of that.
NBR congratulates those taxpayers who have already successfully filed their income tax returns online. Besides, the organization has humbly requested other individual taxpayers to file income tax returns online using the portal on time.
Incidentally, the National Board of Revenue has set up a call center to assist taxpayers with any issues related to e-returns. Last September 12, taxpayers got immediate solutions to e-return-related queries by calling call center number 09643717171. Besides, taxpayers can report any problem related to e-return in writing and get solutions from the e-tax service option of www.etaxnbr.gov.bd.
All Jewellery Shops to be Closed on 11 October: BAJUS
On the occasion of Durga Puja, all jewellery shops in the country will be closed on Friday (October 11).
Bangladesh Jewelers Association (BAJUS) informed this in a circular on Tuesday (October 8).
It is said that as usual on the occasion of Autumn Durga Puja, BAJUS has decided to close all jewellery establishments across the country including the capital Dhaka, on Ashtami Puja on October 11.
According to the announcement of BAJUS, all jewellery associations in the country will be closed on October 11.
Incidentally, the country's market is currently selling 22-carat gold at Tk1,37,449. Tk1,31,197 per 21 carat, Tk1,12,453 per 18 carat, and Tk92,286 per traditional method gold.
Apart from this, the selling price of gold has to be compulsorily added with a government-mandated 5 percent VAT and BAJUS-mandated minimum wage of 6 percent. However, the wages may vary depending on the design and quality of the jewellery.
The price of gold has been adjusted 42 times in the country's market so far this year. Where the price has been increased 25 times, and reduced 17 times. In 2023, the price was adjusted 29 times.
Trade Deficit Shrinks by 10% in July-August
Major Highlights:
Trade Deficit Decreases by 10%: The trade deficit in July-August of the 2024-25 fiscal year fell to 2.75 billion USD, down from 3.04 billion USD last year.
Export Growth and Reduced Imports: Export earnings rose by 2.5%, while import costs decreased by 1.2%, contributing to the reduced deficit.
Positive Current Account Balance: A rise in remittances helped turn the current account balance positive, with a surplus of 111 million USD, compared to a 610 million USD deficit last year.
In the first two months of the current fiscal year, the country's trade deficit has decreased by nearly 10% compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.
According to the latest data from the central bank, the trade deficit in July-August of the ongoing 2024-25 fiscal year stood at 2.75 billion USD. In the same period of the previous fiscal year, the deficit was 3.04 billion USD. In other words, the trade deficit decreased by 290 million USD this year.
The Bangladesh Bank reported that this was made possible due to reduced import costs along with an increase in exports.
According to the Bangladesh Bank's data, compared to the same period of the previous year, import costs have decreased by 1.2% to 9.91 billion USD. Meanwhile, export earnings have increased by 2.5% to 7.16 billion USD in the first two months of the current fiscal year, compared to the same period last year.
Another significant factor balancing import costs is the increase in remittances over the past two months, which has led to a positive current account balance for the country.
Moreover, from July to August, the current account surplus reached 111 million USD. In the same period of the previous fiscal year, there was a deficit of 610 million USD.
However, the financial account remains negative. The deficit decreased to 145 million USD in July-August, compared to 1.33 billion USD during the same period last year.
Global Oil Prices Plunge Sharply
Global oil prices have fallen by more than 4%.
On Tuesday (October 15), the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $3.33, or 4.5%, settling at $70.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell by $3.28, or 4.2%, to $74.18 per barrel.
Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels earlier in the day, with prices dropping by at least $4.
The decline in oil prices is attributed to Israel’s announcement not to strike Iran’s oil facilities, along with forecasts of weak demand.
Mass Business Shutdowns Spark Nationwide Alarm
The news is alarming. Over the past two months (August and September), around 150 companies from both domestic and international groups, including City Group, BSRM, and US-Bangla, have decided to shut down their operations. This will put the jobs of hundreds of thousands of people at risk, while also damaging the national economy.
According to information from the companies, they are closing permanently based on decisions by their boards of directors. Around 160 companies are already in the process of shutting down. The list of closures includes both small enterprises and large corporations. These companies, registered with the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC), come from both product and service sectors. Additionally, some companies that registered with plans for new investments are now on the closure list.
Data from the RJSC shows that 128 companies closed down in the last five months (May to September). Of these, a record 46 companies shut their doors in August alone, followed by 26 in September. Between July and September, a total of 83 companies ceased operations.
It has been reported that the number of closures began to rise in July, the first month of the current fiscal year. Government data indicates that 16 private companies closed in June, followed by 21 in July.
Recently, political instability and the impact of floods have caused severe damage across various sectors, particularly in industry, tourism, agriculture, and services. In addition, labor unrest in the ready-made garment (RMG) sector—one of the country's top exports—is causing further instability. If the situation does not improve, business owners may face even more difficulties.
Companies Closing Permanently
According to the information provided by the companies, based on board decisions, many businesses are shutting down permanently. Around 160 companies are already in the process of closure. These include both small businesses and large corporate entities, spanning both product and service sectors. Some companies that had recently registered for new investments are also shutting down.
The Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC) reports that 128 companies closed in the last five months (May to September), with August alone witnessing a record 46 closures, followed by 26 in September. During July-September, 83 companies ceased operations.
The trend began in July when 21 companies closed, compared to 16 in June.
Causes of Business Shutdowns
Political instability and floods have severely affected various sectors, particularly industry, tourism, agriculture, and services. Additionally, labor unrest in the ready-made garment (RMG) sector—one of the country’s top exports—has created further uncertainty. If the situation does not improve, businesses will face even greater challenges.
Domestic Companies Shutting Down
City Group: Shutting down 30 companies, including City Hair Oil, City Seed Crushing Industries, City Condensed Milk, Shampa Sugar Industries, City Biscuit, and several oil mills. The group has appointed a liquidator, G.K. Rajbongshi, who called for an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) in September for closure proceedings.
US-Bangla Group: Closing five companies, including US-BD Security Services, US-Bangla Furniture, and US-Bangla Pharmaceuticals. Liquidators have been appointed following their EGM in September.
BSRM Group: Appointed a liquidator for its Recycling Industries division.
Other Companies: Hospitals like Asmat Ali Khan Central Hospital, healthcare companies such as Lab Quest, and paper manufacturers like Hosendi Paper Mills are also shutting down. Additionally, firms from diverse sectors—including Esquire Holdings, Intek Greenpack, and Urban Fit Properties—are winding up operations.
Foreign Companies Closing Operations
Taiwan-based Maryland Engineering and Singapore-based Weeding Private Company are among those shutting down operations.
South Korea’s Bride Medical & Education Services and India’s Shipcard Marine Bangladesh Ltd. have decided to close voluntarily.
Kite Tech International has also approved its closure during a recent EGM.
Economic and Business Outlook
Mir Nasir Hossain, former FBCCI president, noted that many companies are struggling to recover from pre-existing economic crises. While some businesses have managed to survive, others couldn’t overcome the current challenges. He expressed hope that the business environment will improve soon.
Abul Kasem Khan, vice-chairman of A.K. Khan Group, explained that registering new companies or closing existing ones is a regular part of business. Some companies are shut down to avoid taxes or losses, while others close to reinvest elsewhere. He emphasized that the current economic challenges began three years ago but expressed optimism about future domestic and foreign investments.
Analysts' Perspective
Analysts attribute the closures to inflation, rising production costs, reduced sales, high-interest rates, labor unrest, technical and logistical issues, raw material shortages due to dollar crises, and global conflicts. Political shifts have also limited business opportunities for some companies. However, they believe that the situation will not persist for long and expect improvements in the near future.
This report reflects the growing trend of business closures, driven by both internal and external challenges. October is expected to continue this pattern, with more companies planning EGMs to formalize their shutdowns.
Gold Prices Soar in Bangladesh As Well As World Market
A new history has been created in the price of gold, breaking all previous records in the world market. For the first time in the world market, the price of one ounce of gold exceeded 2,711.19 dollars. As such, the price of this precious metal can rise and create new records in the country's market at any time.
On Friday (October 18) at 12:00 pm, the price of gold in the spot market was at $2,711.19. The price rose $18.10, or 0.67 percent per ounce in one day.
The US election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and tensions in the Middle East are now driving gold prices higher in the global market, Reuters reported.
Bangladesh Jewelers Association (BAJUS) determines the price of gold in the country's market. According to the latest prices offered by the organization, the best quality or 22-carat gold per bhori is priced at Tk1,37,453. This is the highest price of gold in the market of the country so far. The price of 21-carat solid gold is Tk1,31,197, 18-carat is Tk1,12,453, and the traditional method is fixed at Tk92,286.
BAJUS Standing Committee on Pricing and Price Monitoring Committee decides to increase or decrease the price of gold on behalf of the organization. A member of this committee said, "The rate at which gold prices are increasing in the world market, the price of gold will have to be increased in the country's market as well. There is no alternative."
He said, "I decided to increase or decrease the price of gold based on the international market as well as the local market."
Gold Prices Make New History in World Market
A new history has been created in the gold prices, breaking all previous records in the world market. For the first time in the world market, the price of one ounce of gold exceeded 2,724 dollars.
The price of gold in the spot market was at 2,724.7 dollars till 5 pm on Friday (October 18). The price of gold has increased by about 13 dollars per ounce in a span of one day.
The US election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and tensions in the Middle East are now driving gold prices higher in the global market, Reuters reported.
Bangladesh Jewelers Association (BAJUS) determines the price of gold in the country's market.
According to the latest price offered by the organization, the best quality or 22-carat gold per bhori is priced at Tk1,37,453. This is the highest price of gold in the market of the country so far. The price of 21-carat gold is fixed at Tk1,31,197, 18-carat is Tk1,12,453 and the traditional method is Tk92,286 per bhori.
