Bangladesh is facing a significant risk of flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna River basins this July and August, driven by heavy precipitation in their upper catchment areas, according to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).

"Bangladesh remains vulnerable to flooding in July and August due to climatic reasons. During this period, heavy rainfall occurs in major river basins and upstream areas, triggering flood situations in the country," warned Sarder Udoy Raihan, FFWC Executive Engineer at the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB).

He explicitly noted that a flood situation is likely to occur in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins during these two mid-monsoon months.

Historical data underscores that this specific mid-monsoon window has historically yielded the country’s most catastrophic disasters.

During the historic 1988 deluge, extreme monsoon downpours peaking between August and September inundated roughly 82,000 square kilometers, which accounted for nearly 60 percent of Bangladesh's landmass.

Similarly, the historic 1998 flood stretched over two months across July and August, claiming over 1,000 lives and leaving 30 million people temporarily displaced or stranded.

Experts emphasize that the greatest danger arises when these two major basins synchronize.

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This was devastatingly demonstrated in 2004, when a severe flood escalated dramatically after the Brahmaputra and Meghna river peaks coincided in late July, submerging nearly 30,000 square kilometers in the northeastern region alone.

More recently, the 2022 Meghna basin floods and the devastating 2024 floods collectively affected over 13 million people, underscoring the compounding threat of upstream downpours.

Addressing the country's technological capacity to handle these threats, Raihan said, "Currently the FFWC can issue flood forecasts for inland river basins up to 10 to 15 days in advance, while coastal rivers for three days."

Detailing the current state of the country's water systems, Raihan explained that low-lying areas of the Brahmaputra basin are already experiencing flooding, though water levels are expected to stabilize after five to six days.

Meanwhile, the Meghna River basin is expected to remain stable for the next few days due to a lack of heavy precipitation in the basin and its upstream areas.

However, the FFWC executive engineer raised concerns about coastal vulnerabilities, stating that a low pressure may form over the Bay of Bengal this month, which may cause sudden flooding in the low-lying areas of the country's coastal region.

According to the official flood forecast issued by the FFWC on Thursday, the water levels of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system decreased over the preceding 24 hours.

However, they are projected to rise over the next four days before stabilizing on the fifth day. Between July 4 and July 7, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna rivers may flow at warning levels in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura districts, potentially inundating adjacent low-lying areas in some locations.

The forecast further detailed that while the water levels of the Ganges-Padma rivers will continue to increase over the next five days, they are expected to stay below the danger level.

In the northeast, the Surma-Kushiyara rivers in the Upper Meghna basin may continue to flow at warning levels in Sylhet and Sunamganj districts over the next 72 hours, leaving adjacent low-lying areas inundated in some places.

Currently, water levels are already maintaining warning levels at several key points across the country, including the Teesta River at Dalia (Nilphamari) and Tarapur (Lalmonirhat), the Kushiyara River at Fenchuganj (Sylhet) and Markuli (Sunamganj), and the Someshwari River at Kolmakanda (Netrokona).

With Inputs from UNB