The United Nations' weather and climate agency issued a stark warning on Friday, revealing that the recently initiated El Nino phenomenon will quickly escalate into a "strong" event between July and September, drastically increasing the likelihood of extreme weather across the globe.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that El Nino has already officially set in and is forecast to gain strength rapidly, urging countries worldwide to immediately brace for the impending impact.
Characterized as a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that takes place every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months, El Nino warms the surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide disruptions in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
Conditions historically oscillate between El Nino and its cooler opposite, La Nina, separated by neutral periods.
According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the current trajectory points toward a rapid development that will push the phenomenon into a "strong" classification—the third-highest level out of the UN agency's four-tier system, which ranks events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.
In an official statement, the WMO noted that El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world.
Forecasts produced by leading global climate centres using diverse models show remarkable agreement and provide high confidence in the outlook, consistently indicating a significant warming of ocean temperatures.
Season-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.
The Geneva-based agency further explained that El Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe while the equatorial Atlantic basin is simultaneously projected to remain generally warmer than average.
The previous El Nino cycle contributed significantly to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and pushing 2024 to an all-time temperature high at approximately 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Though El Nino traditionally peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in atmospheric temperatures typically manifests much later down the line.
WMO Chief Celeste Saulo emphasized the urgency of the current situation, stating, "El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions."
To counteract these impending threats, the WMO announced it is actively stepping up early warning support to help guide national preparedness, particularly within highly climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health.
Saulo reiterated the critical nature of these measures, adding, "Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities."
The climate update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across almost all populated areas outside the polar regions, specifically covering land masses between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north.
Furthermore, the July to September rainfall outlook aligns directly with a strengthening El Nino; above-normal rainfall is forecast for certain regions, including portions of the southwestern United States, whereas below-normal rainfall is expected across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
While the WMO maintains there is no definitive evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events themselves, the agency stressed that global warming can severely amplify the associated effects.
This amplification occurs because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the overall availability of energy and moisture, fueling more intense heatwaves and heavier rainfall.
Additionally, during the Northern Hemisphere summer, the warm waters associated with El Nino are known to fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, though they simultaneously act to hinder hurricane development across the Atlantic Ocean.
Source: AFP
