48% of Awami League Supporters Prefer BNP, Says CRF

As Bangladesh prepares for the 13th National Parliamentary Election on February 12—set to take place without the ousted Awami League—a new study reveals a significant shift in the political landscape.

Approximately 48% of Awami League supporters now favor the BNP, while the remaining 52% may opt for other candidates.

The findings were released on Wednesday (February 4) morning in a report titled "Uncovering the Public Pulse" by the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies (BEPOS) during a press conference at the National Press Club.

Key Study Metrics
The research, presented by CRF Strategic Coordinator Zakaria Polash, analyzed voter participation, leadership perceptions, and the electoral environment.

• Sample Size: 11,038 voters from across the country.
• Methodology: Stratified random sampling conducted in two phases between November 20 and December 31, 2025.
• Turnout Intent: Over 90% of voters expressed interest in voting on February 12, with only 8% remaining undecided.

Shift in Political Allegiances
The report highlights a major realignment of supporters following the July uprising:

• The BNP Shift: Nearly half (48%) of those who formerly supported the Awami League now lean toward the BNP.
• The Rise of Jamaat: Among new voters (those eligible since 2008), 37.4% expressed a preference for Jamaat-e-Islami.
• Candidate vs. Party: 30.2% of voters prioritize the individual candidate, while 33.2% consider both the candidate and the political party.

Top Voter Concerns: Corruption over Religion
The study indicates a clear priority for governance over ideology:

• Corruption & Governance: Cited as the primary issue by 67.3% of voters.
• Religious Issues: Rated as a priority by only 35.9% of respondents.
• Leadership Traits: Voters are moving away from "personal charisma," favoring leaders perceived as empathetic, responsible, and capable of effective governance.

Security and Media Influence
Despite the high intent to vote, the report noted significant anxiety regarding the polling environment. Supporters across all political lines expressed fears regarding intimidation, fraud, and ballot-snatching, noting that they are more concerned about physical security at centers than the overall management of the election.

Additionally, the study found that television and social media remain the most influential sources of information for the electorate.

The press conference was presided over by Professor Dr. Mohammad Shahabul Haque, with Dr. M. Niaz Asadullah, a visiting professor of Economics at the University of Reading (UK), attending as a specialist discussant.