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China’s property debt woes deepen with developer Vanke under closer scrutiny
International desk
08 Mar 2024, 12:34
China’s property debt crisis is showing new signs of trouble after entering its fourth year, with one of the country’s major state-backed developers placed under unprecedented scrutiny by investors.
Some of China’s largest insurers are sounding an alarm over the debt risks of China Vanke, according to people familiar with the matter, as shares and bonds of the major developer hit record lows on repayment concerns.
At least two Beijing-based insurers that farm out annuity investments told their external portfolio managers late last week to closely monitor Vanke’s credit risks, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. One life insurer also told its pension managers to curb exposure, the people added.
Meanwhile, Vanke, China’s second-biggest developer by sales, has begun a new round of negotiations with several state insurers in recent days to extend maturities of some private borrowings, the people said. No agreement has been reached so far.
The warnings about Vanke’s risks are particularly worrisome and threaten to elevate the sector’s debt woes to the next level because the company is seen as a bellwether for Beijing’s support for major developers with strong ties to the state.
The company is also one of China’s few remaining and surviving investment-grade builders, following a record wave of defaults that engulfed mostly private-sector builders, including former industry giants Country Garden Holdings and China Evergrande Group.
The growing concerns about Vanke also come at an inconvenient time for the authorities as the nation kicked off its seven-day-long annual parliamentary sessions on March 5, with key policy topics from the housing crisis to local government debt in focus.
President Xi Jinping’s government has maintained an economic growth target of around 5 per cent for 2024 and plans to issue one trillion yuan (S$190 billion) of ultra-long special central government bonds in a rare move to shore up growth.
Vanke did not respond to a request for comment.
“It is no surprise that Vanke is in trouble today,” said Beijing Shengao Fund Management chief investment officer Li Kai. “Domestic real estate sales have been so poor that it is difficult for companies to hang on, and the market has not seen strong visible support from local governments.”
The developer’s shares and bonds extended a sell-off on March 4. Its stock fell 7.1 per cent in Hong Kong at their lowest level ever, and dropped 4.7 per cent in Shenzhen, the biggest decline since December 2022. Some of Vanke’s yuan bonds also hit their lowest levels, according to Bloomberg-compiled prices, while its 3.975 per cent US dollar note due in 2027 fell by more than six US cents to 47.3 US cents.
It is not the first state-linked Chinese developer to be in trouble. China South City Holdings and Sino-Ocean Group Holding, two such firms, are also on the list of defaulters. But their sizes and impact are nowhere near Vanke’s.
“If Vanke does have a redemption risk, I think it will be comparable to the impact on the market of Country Garden’s default, and will directly hit other private real estate developers that are still struggling to support themselves,” said Beijing Shengao’s Mr Li.
Vanke’s Hong Kong-listed shares may remain weak until there is a sales recovery or stronger support from the Shenzhen government, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts, who forecast a 20 per cent to 30 per cent yearly drop in the developer’s full-year earnings.
Source: Straitstimes
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41.7 Million Bangladeshis Live in Extreme Poverty: UNDP
In Bangladesh, 41.7 million people are living in extreme poverty, with 6.5% of them in critical conditions, according to a report recently released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
On Thursday, October 17, the report titled "Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2024: Poverty Amid Conflict" was published jointly by the UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at Oxford University.
The study covered 6.3 billion people across 112 countries, analyzing data spanning over a decade until 2022–23. It assessed access to essential services, such as adequate housing, sanitation, electricity, cooking oil, and nutrition. School attendance rates for children were also included.
According to the report, 1.1 billion people worldwide live in extreme poverty, with nearly half residing in conflict-affected countries. Over 83% of those in extreme poverty live in Africa and South Asia. In South Asia alone, 272 million people live in families where at least one member is malnourished.
In Bangladesh, the primary contributors to poverty are the quality of living standards (45.1%), followed by education (37.6%), and health (17.3%).
The latest data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in 2022 shows that 18.7% of the population lives below the poverty line, with 5.6% classified as extremely poor. Based on the most recent census, Bangladesh has a population of 169.8 million, meaning 31.8 million people are poor.
Former Director-General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), K.A.S. Murshid, noted that comparing the UNDP's measurements with BBS or other local surveys may not be appropriate. He explained that the survey offers insights into Bangladesh’s poverty in a global context, highlighting the deterioration in poverty levels due to dollar shortages and economic challenges. He emphasized that the findings could guide future planning to address these issues.
The report identified India as having the highest number of people in extreme poverty, with 234 million of its 1.4 billion population affected. Pakistan follows with 93 million, Ethiopia with 86 million, Nigeria with 74 million, and the Democratic Republic of Congo with 66 million. Nearly half of the world's extreme poor live in these five countries.
Children are disproportionately affected by poverty. Of the 1.1 billion people in extreme poverty, 584 million are under 18 years old, accounting for 27.9% of the global child population. In comparison, only 13.5% of the world’s adults live in extreme poverty.
The report also revealed that 455 million people in extreme poverty reside in conflict-affected areas, where the child mortality rate is 8%. In peaceful regions, the child mortality rate drops to just 1.1%. Populations in war-torn countries suffer severe deprivation of nutrition, electricity, water, and sanitation services.
Gold Prices Make New History in World Market
A new history has been created in the gold prices, breaking all previous records in the world market. For the first time in the world market, the price of one ounce of gold exceeded 2,724 dollars.
The price of gold in the spot market was at 2,724.7 dollars till 5 pm on Friday (October 18). The price of gold has increased by about 13 dollars per ounce in a span of one day.
The US election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and tensions in the Middle East are now driving gold prices higher in the global market, Reuters reported.
Bangladesh Jewelers Association (BAJUS) determines the price of gold in the country's market.
According to the latest price offered by the organization, the best quality or 22-carat gold per bhori is priced at Tk1,37,453. This is the highest price of gold in the market of the country so far. The price of 21-carat gold is fixed at Tk1,31,197, 18-carat is Tk1,12,453 and the traditional method is Tk92,286 per bhori.
North Korea Claims to Have Found Crashed South Korean Drone
North Korea on Saturday released photos of the remains of a South Korean military drone that it said was found in Pyongyang, which analysts confirmed resembled South Korean military drones.
According to state media KCNA, Seoul uses drones to drop propaganda over the capital Pyongyang.
"It is quite likely that the drone is the one which scattered leaflets over the center of Pyongyang Municipality," said KCNA. "But the conclusion has not yet been drawn."
A North Korean defense ministry spokesperson said authorities found the remains of the crashed drone during a search of the capital on October 13, KCNA reported.
The North's investigation "scientifically proved" that the drone came from the South, the official said.
In images released by the North, supposedly of the recovered drone, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) can be seen lodged in a tree and others featuring North Korean officials.
Drone detection 'declaration of war'
Pyongyang on Saturday reiterated its earlier warning that another drone incursion will be seen as "a declaration of war" and vowed immediate retaliation.
Initially, South Korea's military denied sending drones, but later released a statement saying there is "no value in verifying or responding to North Korea's unilateral claims."
Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said that based on the images released by the North, the drone was "clearly a long-range reconnaissance small drone used by ...the South Korean military".
"It is the same model that our military showcased during the Armed Forces Day event last year," he told AFP news agency.
Tensions on the rise
Tensions in the Korean Peninsula have been rising steadily as relations between the two countries increasingly deteriorate.
On Friday, Seoul accused North Korea of sending troops including special forces, to Russia to support its war in Ukraine.
This comes after South Korea's military said earlier this week that it fired warning shots near its heavily fortified border after North Korean forces reportedly destroyed roads along the border.
Pyongyang vowed to permanently seal off its southern border.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has frequently threatened to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and the United States, if attacked, while he pushed to accelerate North Korea's military growth, including its nuclear capabilities.
Amid stalled diplomatic communication, the North has been engaging in provocative missile tests, while the South intensified its military exercises with the US.
Fuel Oil Price Increases in World Market
After a decrease of 7 percent last week, the price of fuel oil has increased slightly in the world market.
Reuters reported this information on Monday (October 21).
According to the report this morning, the price of Brent crude oil in the world market rose by 0.11 percent or by 8 cents to 73.14 dollars per barrel.
At the same time, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, or WTI crude oil increased by 0.14 percent or by 10 cents to 69.32 dollars per barrel.
Global oil prices rose as China's growth slowed and the risk of war in the Middle East eased, Reuters reported.
Earlier, Brent crude fell 7 percent per barrel and WTI crude fell 8 percent per barrel last week.
Elon Musk Offers $1M Daily Prize to Voters Who Sign Petition
Elon Musk has started a petition and he's offering US voters who sign it a cash prize of $1 million (€920,000) every day until the November 5 election.
The billionaire supporter of Donald Trump urged registered voters in key swing states to sign the petition to promote "free speech and the right to bear arms."
Musk said he would select one random person each day from the list of signatures and award them the million-dollar prize.
He handed over the first check on Saturday to a man in Pennsylvania — a state considered a 'must-win' for both Republicans and Democrats.
Speaking at a rally in the state, Musk said he aimed to get between 1 million and 2 million voters in swing states to sign the petition "because I think this sends a crucial message to our elected politicians."
Musk backs Trump
Musk's campaign appears to encourage Republican supporters to register to vote.
Observers have suggested that such a stunt could potentially contravene laws that prohibit paying people to register to vote.
According to the Federal Election Commission, Musk has donated around $75 million over the past three months to a political action committee he set up to support the Trump campaign called America PAC.
The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX has repeatedly lauded Trump — who has indicated he would tap Musk to run a budget efficiency commission if he is elected again — while publicly criticizing Democratic hopeful Kamala Harris.
China’s Stimulus Plan Disappoints
China’s recent stimulus plan has left many analysts and investors underwhelmed, as it falls short of addressing the deep-rooted economic challenges facing the country. Despite hopes for a robust package to revive growth, the measures announced have been seen as insufficient to tackle issues such as sluggish consumer spending, mounting debt, and a faltering property market.
The plan includes modest tax cuts, increased infrastructure spending, and support for small businesses, but critics argue that these steps lack the boldness needed to spur significant economic recovery. Additionally, the plan’s limited scope has raised concerns about the government’s commitment to structural reforms and long-term economic stability. As a result, market reactions have been tepid, with stock indices and investor confidence showing little improvement. The disappointment surrounding the stimulus plan underscores the complexities of navigating China’s economic landscape and the challenges of implementing effective policy measures in a rapidly changing global environment.
China’s economic planning agency unveiled new measures to boost the economy yesterday, but avoided major spending initiatives. The incremental approach seemed to disappoint investors, who had hoped for more ambitious actions. As markets reopened after a weeklong holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index initially surged by 10 percent but settled 4.59 percent higher. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plummeted by 9.41 percent.
Chinese National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Zheng Shanjie announced that the government would advance 100 billion yuan (US$14.2 billion) from next year’s budget, along with an additional 100 billion yuan for construction projects. This spending level fell short of the multitrillion yuan expectations analysts had predicted. Zheng affirmed that China remains on track to achieve its annual economic growth target of around 5 percent, despite facing significant challenges and a more complex global environment. UBS chief China economist Wang Tao noted that the market had anticipated a substantial fiscal stimulus. She suggested that a modest package of 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion yuan is more realistic in the near term, with an additional 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan expected next year.
Late last month, China introduced a monetary stimulus package that included reductions in mortgage rates and the reserve requirements for banks. These measures represent the most aggressive efforts to date to revive the struggling property sector and accelerate economic growth. The commission emphasized that the new policies aim to boost investment and spending, and provide support to small and medium-sized enterprises that face challenges compared to large state-owned corporations. However, much of the announcement centered on technical details such as, payment regulations, project management, and the issuance of bonds for financing.
Chinese consumers may soon face higher prices for Remy Martin and other European brandies after the government announced provisional tariffs ranging from 30.6 to 39 percent on these liquors. This decision comes just four days after most EU countries imposed duties on China-made electric vehicles (EVs). The retaliatory move could provide Chinese negotiators with leverage in discussions with the EU to reduce or eliminate the tariffs of up to 35.3 percent on Chinese EVs, set to take effect at the end of this month. The brandy tariffs are provisional, requiring importers to deposit the tariff amount with Chinese customs starting Friday. This announcement follows a preliminary finding by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in late August, which concluded that European brandy was being dumped in China, causing “substantial damage” to domestic producers.
The brandy investigation primarily targeted French producers of Cognac and similar spirits like Armagnac. France has backed the probe into Chinese-made EVs, while Germany, concerned about potential retaliation in the Chinese market, has opposed it. The provisional tariffs vary by brand, akin to the EU duties on Chinese EVs. For instance, Martell faces a 30.6 percent tariff, Remy Martin 38.1 percent, and Hennessey 39 percent. These tariffs affect dozens of companies, including some Spanish producers. China’s economic future appears uncertain and challenging in light of its recent stimulus plan. The measures introduced, which include modest tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending, have been criticized for their lack of boldness and inability to address the deeper issues plaguing the economy. With consumer spending remaining sluggish, mounting debt levels, and a struggling property market, the stimulus plan falls short of providing the necessary boost for a robust recovery.
Additionally, the limited scope of the plan raises doubts about the government’s commitment to implementing structural reforms that are crucial for long-term economic stability. As a result, investor confidence has waned, and market reactions have been tepid, reflecting the broader skepticism about the effectiveness of the stimulus measures. Without more comprehensive and aggressive policy interventions, China faces a bleak economic outlook, with the risk of prolonged stagnation and increased financial instability looming on the horizon.
Israel's Attack: All Flights from Iranian Airports Suspended
In the wake of airstrikes by Israel, all flights from Iranian airports have been canceled, according to a report by Reuters citing Iran’s state news agency IRNA.
A spokesperson for Iran's Civil Aviation Authority stated that flights on all routes have been suspended until further notice. It remains unclear when flights will resume.
Israeli media reported that Israel has also announced the closure of its airspace until 8:30 AM local time on Saturday, October 26.
Following Israel's attack on Iran, Iraq temporarily closed its airspace as well. According to Al Jazeera’s live report, Iraq’s Ministry of Transport has suspended all air travel at the country’s airports until further instructions are given.
On Friday night, the Israeli military issued a statement saying, “In response to attacks by Iran over the past few months, the Israel Defense Forces are currently carrying out targeted strikes on Iranian military installations.”
The United States has confirmed the Israeli strikes. National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement, “Israel is conducting precise strikes on various Iranian military sites for self-defense. This is in response to Iran’s attack on October 1.”
