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Upcoming Budget Might Be Around Tk 8 Trillion
Rtv News
18 Jan 2025, 15:21
Photo: Collected
The upcoming budget might be around Tk 8 trillion. In the budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year, the revenue collection target could be set at Tk 5.42 trillion, with a maximum deficit of Tk 2.5 trillion.
This information was shared by Zahid Hussain, a member of the White Paper Drafting Committee and former Lead Economist of the World Bank's Dhaka office.
He stated that economic growth might reach 4% by the end of the current fiscal year. If the growth rate is to rise to 5%, it may take another two years.
Zahid Hussain made these remarks on Saturday (January 18) at a symposium titled "White Paper and Subsequent Economic Management, Reforms, and National Budget" held at the Bangabandhu International Conference Center in the capital.
Regarding the banking sector, economist Zahid Hussain said that as of the end of last September, the amount of distressed loans in the banking sector was about Tk 7.55 trillion. This amount was Tk 6.75 trillion at the end of last June.
He further claimed that instead of water, oil has been poured to extinguish the fire of inflation. Despite the government's claims of increasing growth since 2014, growth has consistently declined from this fiscal year. Since 2022, the reserve has been decreasing by $1 billion every month. From 2009 to 2019, the government claimed a 7% growth rate, but their analysis found it to be only 4.2%.
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Dr. Yunus to Deliver Speech at Al-Azhar University Today
Chief Advisor Dr. Muhammad Yunus is scheduled to deliver a speech at Egypt's Al-Azhar University in Cairo on Thursday, December 19. He is currently in Egypt on a two-day visit to attend the D-8 Summit.
Deputy Press Secretary to the Chief Advisor, Abul Kalam Azad Majumdar, confirmed that Dr. Yunus will deliver the speech at the invitation of Grand Imam Ahmed El-Tayeb of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif Mosque.
Earlier, Grand Imam Ahmed El-Tayeb extended the invitation during a meeting with Dr. Yunus at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 12. The meeting took place during an international gathering where the Grand Imam requested Dr. Yunus to address the prestigious Egyptian university.
During his visit, the Chief Advisor will also participate in the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation Summit, commonly known as the D-8 Summit, being held in Cairo on Thursday.
The Deputy Press Secretary added that, on the sidelines of the summit, Dr. Yunus will hold bilateral meetings with several heads of state from D-8 member countries, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
On Wednesday, December 18, at 11:00 AM local time, Dr. Yunus and his delegation arrived in Cairo. The Chief Advisor's flight departed from Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport at 1:20 AM on Tuesday night, heading for Egypt.
The D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, also known as Developing-8, is a collaborative forum for economic development among Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey.
Bangladesh Wins The Economist's "Country of the Year" Title
As in previous years, British magazine The Economist has chosen the best country of the year. This year, Bangladesh has won the title of The Economist's Country of the Year 2024 for the student-led uprising that ended 15 years of autocratic rule.
According to a report published by The Economist on Thursday (December 19), five countries were in the final shortlist for the title of the best country of 2024. Besides Bangladesh, the other contenders were Syria, Argentina, South Africa, and Poland. After intense debate among The Economist's correspondents, Bangladesh was ultimately selected.
Syria was the runner-up for ousting Bashar al-Assad from power. Additionally, Argentina was recognized for its economic reforms, while South Africa and Poland were shortlisted for forming new governments in opposition to poor governance.
In its announcement, the British magazine clarified that the choice of the best country is not based on wealth, happiness, or moral superiority. Instead, the title is awarded to the country that has shown the most progress in the past 12 months.
Why Bangladesh Stood Out
In its report, The Economist stated, “Our winner this year is Bangladesh.” The report noted that in August, a student-led movement ousted Sheikh Hasina’s government, which had been in power for 15 years. Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of a freedom fighter, had once led Bangladesh’s rapid economic growth. However, over time, her rule turned increasingly repressive, with election rigging, jailing of opponents, and ordering security forces to shoot protesters. Corruption and misappropriation of funds also surged during her tenure.
The report also pointed out the challenges associated with Bangladesh’s political transition, mentioning the history of retaliatory violence during such periods. It described the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), as corrupt and highlighted the threat posed by the rise of Islamist extremism. However, it praised the interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has received support from students, the military, businesses, and civil society. The interim administration has restored order and stabilized the economy.
The Economist's Perspective
The report emphasized that Bangladesh's progress is promising, but challenges remain. The country must restore its relationship with India in 2025 and decide when to hold elections. It must first ensure judicial impartiality and allow opposition parties to organize—none of which will be easy. Still, Bangladesh’s strides toward forming a more liberal government after toppling an autocrat make it deserving of the title this year.
Past Winners
In 2023, Greece won the Country of the Year title for overcoming a prolonged financial crisis and re-electing a moderate, centrist government. Previous winners have included Colombia for ending its civil war, Ukraine for resisting Russian aggression, and Malawi for its strides toward democratization.
Advisor Hasan Arif Passes Away
The Advisor for Civil Aviation and Tourism and Land in the caretaker government, A.F.M. Hasan Arif, has passed away (Inna Lillahi wa Inna Ilayhi Raji'un). He died of cardiac arrest on Friday (December 20) at LabAid Hospital in the capital.
The matter was confirmed by Md. Nasir Uddin, who served as the personal secretary to Hasan Arif at the Ministry of Land. He stated, "Hasan Arif passed away at 3:10 PM at LabAid Hospital."
On August 8, Hasan Arif was appointed as the Advisor for Local Government, Rural Development, and Cooperatives as well as the Ministry of Land in the caretaker government. Later, he was entrusted with the responsibilities of the Land Ministry and the Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism.
Hasan Arif was a senior lawyer of the Supreme Court. He began his legal career in 1970. From October 2001 to April 2005, he served as the Attorney General of Bangladesh. Additionally, he acted as the Legal Advisor to the caretaker government from 2008 to January 2009.
Hasan Arif was born in Kolkata in 1941. He completed his secondary and higher secondary education at St. Xavier’s College in Kolkata. Later, he obtained his bachelor's and LLB degrees from the University of Calcutta. He began his legal career at the Calcutta High Court in 1967 and subsequently moved to Dhaka to practice law at the Bangladesh High Court.
Train Fare and Schedule on Dhaka-Khulna Route Via Padma Bridge
The schedule for train on the Khulna-Dhaka-Khulna and Benapole-Dhaka-Benapole routes via the Padma Bridge has been finalized. Starting December 24, two pairs of trains will operate through the Kashiani Junction in Gopalganj.
According to information provided by Bangladesh Railway on Saturday (December 21), a notice regarding this was issued on December 18.
The notice states that from December 24, a pair of new intercity trains will operate on the Khulna-Dhaka-Khulna route and another pair on the Benapole-Dhaka-Benapole route. According to the train schedule, the "Jahanabad Express" will depart Khulna at 6:00 am and reach Dhaka by 9:45 am. At 10:45 am, the "Ruposhi Bangla Express" will depart Dhaka for Benapole, reaching Benapole via Jessore Junction at 2:30 pm.
The "Ruposhi Bangla Express" will depart Benapole at 3:30 pm and arrive in Dhaka at 7:10 pm. The train will then depart Dhaka as the "Jahanabad Express" at 8:00 pm and reach Khulna by 11:40 pm.
The "Ruposhi Bangla Express" will stop at (up and down) Jessore Junction, Narail, Kashiani Junction, and Bhanga Junction, while the "Jahanabad Express" will stop at Noapara, Singia Junction, Narail, Lohagara, Kashiani Junction, and Bhanga Junction.
Train services will remain closed on Mondays, and there will be 768 seats available. According to the schedule, the travel time from Dhaka to Benapole is set at approximately 3 hours and 45 minutes.
Meanwhile, fares for the new Khulna-Dhaka route have also been determined by the railway department, though only the base fares have been published. Final fares, including VAT, are yet to be disclosed.
Fares (excluding VAT):
Dhaka-Khulna:
Shovon Chair: 445 BDT
Snigdha: 740 BDT
AC Seat: 885 BDT
AC Berth: 1,330 BDT
Khulna-Noapara & Singia:
Shovon Chair: 50 BDT
Snigdha: 100 BDT
AC Seat: 110 BDT
AC Berth: 130 BDT (Noapara), 150 BDT (Singia)
Khulna-Narail:
Shovon Chair: 75 BDT
Snigdha: 125 BDT
AC Seat: 150 BDT
AC Berth: 225 BDT
Khulna-Lohagara:
Shovon Chair: 95 BDT
Snigdha: 155 BDT
AC Seat: 185 BDT
AC Berth: 280 BDT
Khulna-Kashiani Junction:
Shovon Chair: 145 BDT
Snigdha: 235 BDT
AC Seat: 290 BDT
AC Berth: 425 BDT
Khulna-Bhanga:
Shovon Chair: 185 BDT
Snigdha: 305 BDT
AC Seat: 370 BDT
AC Berth: 555 BDT
Government-determined VAT will be added to all fares.
100 Garment Factories Shut in 6 Months, 50,000 Workers Jobless: BGMEA
The country’s readymade garment (RMG) industry, a major contributor to export earnings, continues to face a severe crisis. Issues such as worker unrest, energy shortages, and other challenges are plaguing the sector, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).
In the last six months, approximately 100 garment factories have closed, leaving 50,000–60,000 workers unemployed. At least 158 factories are struggling to pay workers on time.
Factory owners claim that while larger factories receive attention and support, smaller factories are being neglected due to unfair policies by the government.
Azhar Khan, Chairman of Mithila Apparels, stated, “If the government ensures uninterrupted gas and electricity supply, this crisis can be mitigated, and we can survive. Operating with LPG gas significantly increases costs, making production unsustainable.”
BGMEA Director Mohiuddin Rubel added, “Individual factories are in bad shape, and the overall situation is dire. Around 100 factories in Dhaka and Chattogram are shut, leaving 50,000–60,000 workers jobless. Furthermore, 158 factories cannot pay salaries properly.”
He criticized the disparity in government policies, saying, “Large companies like Beximco are receiving assistance by following regulations, but small and medium factories are overlooked. This unequal policy is unacceptable. Additionally, labor unrest persists despite a 9% wage increase.”
Rubel warned that buyers are shifting to other countries, with export volumes rising in Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan. “We must act urgently to safeguard our industry,” he urged.
Interpol Red Notice Against Sheikh Hasina Unconfirmed: Tajul Islam
Chief Prosecutor Tajul Islam has stated that the International Crimes Tribunal has no information regarding the issuance of an Interpol Red Notice against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
He made this remark in response to a journalist's query during a press briefing at his office on Sunday (December 22).
The Chief Prosecutor said that the tribunal has not informed whether a Red Notice has been issued against Sheikh Hasina. If a notice is issued, the NCB branch of police would know about it. The Inspector General's office would confirm if a Red Notice has indeed been issued.
Later, inquiries at the Police Headquarters also revealed that they have no information regarding the issuance of a Red Notice against Sheikh Hasina.
On August 5, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted amidst a student-led mass uprising and subsequently sought refuge in India, where she has been residing ever since. Since then, numerous cases have been filed against her and her government officials for alleged genocide, enforced disappearances, killings, and corruption spanning the past 15 years of her administration.
The interim government led by Nobel laureate economist Dr Muhammad Yunus, upon assuming office, pledged to bring Sheikh Hasina back to face justice. Following this, on November 13, the prosecution of the International Crimes Tribunal requested the Inspector General of Police to take steps to issue an Interpol Red Notice for Sheikh Hasina’s arrest. Consequently, the IGP's office initiated communication with Interpol.
Previously, on November 10, Dr Asif Nazrul, Adviser to the Ministry of Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs, stated in a media briefing that the government was planning to issue Red Notices through Interpol to bring back Sheikh Hasina and other fugitives accused of the July-August genocide. He asserted that no matter where such fugitives were hiding, they would be brought to justice through Interpol's assistance.
On November 12, during a press briefing, Chief Prosecutor Mohammad Tajul Islam declared that Sheikh Hasina was accused of genocide, enforced disappearances, and other crimes against humanity. He mentioned that as she is currently outside the country's borders, Interpol has been contacted to facilitate her arrest or issue a Red Notice against her.
It has also been reported that not only Sheikh Hasina but several other individuals, including Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal and Hasan Mahmud, who have fled the country and taken refuge abroad, are also under prosecution's consideration for Red Notices through Interpol.
On October 17, the International Crimes Tribunal issued arrest warrants against 46 individuals, including Sheikh Hasina and Obaidul Quader, in separate cases related to the alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in the July-August Movement.
Dollar Market Faces Instability Again
The upcoming Ramadan has driven up the demand for imported goods, while pending LC (Letter of Credit) payments have also increased. At the same time, outbound travel has risen, leading to a sharp surge in dollar demand, which has not been met with an adequate supply.
To address this demand, banks are purchasing remittances at prices at least 8 BDT higher than the declared rate of 120 BDT per dollar, creating ripple effects in the open market.
Bank officials report that the pressure to settle import liabilities has intensified suddenly, causing the dollar's price to rise. Economists are concerned that this situation might further fuel price inflation.
Investigations reveal that banks are purchasing remittances at up to 128 BDT per dollar, while the official rate set by the central bank is 120 BDT. In the curb market, the dollar price has surged to 129 BDT, compared to 123-124 BDT just a week ago.
On Sunday, December 22, this information was confirmed by visiting various banks and money changer houses in Motijheel and Dilkusha in Dhaka.
The sudden spike in demand has allowed unscrupulous groups to exploit the situation, further destabilizing the dollar market. In response, the central bank has sought dollar transaction records from at least 13 suspicious banks and intensified monitoring efforts to stabilize the foreign currency market.
Unnamed banking officials stated that Bangladesh Bank has instructed banks to settle old import liabilities within this month, prompting banks to buy dollars at higher rates. This has resulted in increased remittance inflows, with over $2 billion received in the first 21 days of the current month.
Consequently, the total reserve now stands at $24.95 billion. Based on BPM (Balance of Payments Manual) calculations advised by the IMF, this equates to $19.95 billion, while the usable reserve is approximately $15.14 billion.
Data from Bangladesh Bank indicates that the maximum dollar rate for banks is currently capped at 120 BDT, up from 118 BDT in June and 110 BDT in December 2023—a rise of 10 BDT within a year. Comparing this to market realities, the increase amounts to 18 BDT.
According to Ansari, a sales representative at a currency exchange house in Motijheel, dollars are being bought at 127.50 BDT and sold at 128.30 BDT, with evening rates reaching 129 BDT. Just 10 days ago, dollars were traded in the open market for 123-124 BDT. The December holiday season has contributed to this surge in demand, as many people are traveling abroad.
Bangladesh Bank's spokesperson and Executive Director, Husne Ara Shikha, stated that a special team has been formed to investigate the instability in the dollar market. Monitoring has been intensified, and suspicious banks have been asked to submit transaction details. Some banks have already submitted their reports, and further actions will be determined based on the findings.
