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Ifo lowers German growth forecast amid budget cutbacks
Deutsche Welle
24 Jan 2024, 17:41
Experts are predicting lower growth in the German economy as the government slashes spending.
Germany's gross domestic product is likely to grow by just 0.7% in 2024, down from a previous forecast of 0.9%, the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), a Munich-based economic think tank said on Wednesday.
Ifo revised its mid-December estimate in view of the drastic cuts in the German government's 2024 budget amid a funding shortfall.
Last year, Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3%.
What did Ifo say?
"According to our estimate, the federal budget now agreed by the Budget Committee made cutbacks to the tune of some €19 billion ($20.6 billion)," Ifo senior economist Timo Wollmershäuser said.
"Businesses and households will come under more strain or receive less relief, and public spending will be reduced," he said.
He said that when Ifo made its last prediction in December, it was not clear to what extent spending would be reduced or taxes raised.
The German government was forced to trim back its spending after the constitutional court ruled in November that €60 billion ($64 billion) in unused COVID-era loans could not be reallocated.
Ifo is more optimistic in its forecast than, for example, the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), which has predicted that the GDP will shrink by 0.3% in 2024.
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Israel to Launch Powerful Strike in the Middle East Tonight
Iran launched at least 200 missile attacks targeting Israel. In retaliation, Israel will carry out strikes in the Middle East tonight, Wednesday night. On Tuesday night (October 1), Israel's military spokesperson Daniel Hagari issued this threat, as reported by the BBC.
In a statement, Hagari said, "Israel and the U.S. air defense systems have effectively responded to the Iranian missile attacks."
He added, "Iran carried out serious actions on Wednesday night, pushing the Middle East toward heightened tensions. Iran will face the consequences of its actions tonight."
Daniel Hagari also mentioned, "This is not the first time Iran has attacked, but this missile attack was extensive, and we have prepared a necessary defensive response."
The Israeli military spokesperson further stated, "The impact of Iran's attack was minimal. Due to the responsible behavior of the public, the activation of our defense systems, and the steps taken by our partners to protect the state of Israel, there have been no significant casualties. We will continue to operate in this way, both offensively and defensively."
Meanwhile, in the face of Iran's missile attacks, Israel's security cabinet took shelter in an emergency bunker. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting there, after which he warned Iran, stating that they would pay a heavy price for the missile attack on Israel.
Notably, Iran launched an attack on Israeli territory on Tuesday night. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the targets of the attack were three military bases in Israel's capital, Tel Aviv.
Iran's Attack on Israel: What the Future Holds?
Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards Israel, with some hitting Israeli territory. This marks the second attack by Iran this year, following a similar incident in April when it fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. Israeli military officials said the immediate threat from Iran seems to have passed, but the extent of the damage remains unclear.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran will face "consequences" for this assault.
Scale of the Attack
The Israeli military reported that Iran fired approximately 180 missiles towards Israel, making this attack slightly larger than the one in April, which involved around 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israeli defense systems, but some reportedly hit military bases, schools, and restaurants. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that 90% of their projectiles reached their intended targets, stating that hypersonic missiles were used for the first time. According to IRGC sources, three Israeli military bases were hit.
A man in Jericho, in the West Bank, was killed by debris from the missiles. Israeli officials have not reported significant injuries, though two people were slightly wounded by shrapnel.
Reasons Behind the Attack
The IRGC stated that the missile strikes were a response to Israel's recent assassination of senior leaders in Iran-backed militias, including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoshan in Beirut on September 27. The IRGC also referred to the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, though Israel has not confirmed involvement in Haniyeh's death.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, personally authorized the missile attack. Iran does not recognize Israel’s right to exist and has long supported paramilitary groups that oppose Israel. In return, Israel views Iran as a direct existential threat and has conducted covert operations against Tehran for years.
Effectiveness of Israel’s Defense Systems
Israel's air defense network, including the well-known Iron Dome, was activated to intercept missiles. While the Iron Dome primarily defends against short-range rockets, such as those fired by Hamas or Hezbollah, Israel's multi-layered defense system also includes David's Sling, which handles medium- to long-range rockets and ballistic missiles. For long-range missiles flying outside Earth's atmosphere, Israel deploys the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors.
Reactions from Israel’s Allies
In response to the missile attack, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated U.S. support for Israel, labeling the Iranian strike as "defeated and ineffective." He also instructed U.S. forces in the region to assist Israel’s defense efforts. The U.S. Navy launched around a dozen interceptors at Iranian missiles, and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed the U.S. had successfully intercepted several Iranian missiles.
Footage verified by the BBC showed missile interceptions over Amman, Jordan, and it was confirmed that Jordan intercepted missiles in the April attack as well. The UK also played a role, with British fighter jets supporting Israel, as they did in April. UK Defense Secretary John Healey stated that British forces helped prevent further escalation, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer affirmed the UK's support for Israel's right to defend itself. France and Japan also condemned Iran’s actions, urging all parties to avoid further escalation.
What Could Happen Next?
Netanyahu warned that Iran had made a "big mistake" and would "pay for it." Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Haggari indicated that Israel would act when and where it chooses. Iran’s IRGC responded by warning that Tehran's next retaliation would be even more devastating if Israel strikes back.
Following the missile attack, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah positions. Residents in the southern suburbs of the city, where Hezbollah operates, were warned to evacuate as tensions remain high.
(Based on BBC)
Four Israeli Soldiers Killed in Hezbollah Ambush
It has been reported that four Israeli soldiers were killed and several others injured in an attack by Hezbollah. Citing Palestinian media sources, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported on Wednesday that the attack took place in the southern Lebanese area of Odaissa.
Israeli media reported that an Israeli military unit was attacked by Hezbollah in the border region between southern Lebanon and occupied northern Palestine.
It further stated that many Israeli soldiers were injured in the attack, and rescue teams evacuated them to hospitals using four helicopters.
Meanwhile, Middle East Eye, citing Hezbollah, reported that they killed several Israeli soldiers in ongoing clashes with Israeli forces in the Lebanese border town of Maroun al-Ras.
According to Hezbollah, this was the second direct confrontation between Lebanese fighters and Israeli soldiers on Wednesday.
They claim that several Israeli soldiers were killed and injured in both clashes. However, no comment has yet been made by the Israeli military on this matter.
Israel's Devastating Attack on Lebanon, 46 Killed
Israel launched an overnight assault on Lebanon, killing 46 people and injuring 85 in the past 24 hours.
On Wednesday, October 2, Israeli forces carried out airstrikes across various areas, including the capital Beirut, according to a report by Al Jazeera. Citing Lebanon's Ministry of Health, the report mentioned that the strikes hit the outskirts of Beirut, as well as the Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel regions, resulting in the casualties.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military stated that Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah fired around 240 rockets on Wednesday. The conflict between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops in southern Lebanon has intensified, with at least 8 Israeli soldiers killed so far.
According to Israel, Hezbollah fired the latest rockets in three waves within less than two hours. Most of the rockets landed in open areas in the western part of Israel's Upper Galilee region, with two rockets landing in the northern part.
Simultaneously, Israel has intensified its attacks on Gaza, with several dozen people killed in separate strikes on shelters, schools, and even an orphanage.
Earlier, on September 27, an Israeli airstrike killed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. Following this, Israel announced a ground offensive in Lebanon.
Japan Airport Restarts Flights after WWII Bomb Blast
Southern Japan's Miyazaki Airport reopened for flights on Thursday after an unexploded bomb from World War II exploded, causing dozens of flights to be canceled.
The blast blew a large crater in the taxiway, just under a minute after an aircraft had rolled past the spot toward the runway.
What we know about the explosion
About 80 flights were canceled on Wednesday, affecting more than 3,400 passengers, but there were no reports of injuries.
The hole in the taxiway was reportedly about 7 meters (roughly 7 yards) in diameter and 1 meter (3 feet) deep.
The airport damage was repaired overnight and flights resumed Thursday morning.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces bomb disposal team probed the site and concluded that the blast had been caused by a "US-made 250 kilogram (550-pound) bomb."
A nearby aviation school recorded a video that showed the explosion throwing pieces of asphalt into the air.
How often are unexploded bombs found?
A former Imperial Japanese Navy flight training field, Miyazaki Airport was built in 1943 as Japan found itself increasingly on the defensive in World War II.
Other unexploded US devices were reportedly found in 2021 and 2011 in the airport, as well as at a nearby building site in 2009.
Some of the pilots who took off from the airfield, on the island of Kyushu, were embarked on kamikaze suicide attack missions.
Defense Ministry officials say numerous unexploded bombs dropped by the US military during wartime have been unearthed in the area.
Hundreds of tons of unexploded ordnance remain buried around Japan, often being dug up at construction sites.
Even before the nuclear bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945, the US Air Force heavily bombed many Japanese cities.
Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, including some 100,000 on one night alone in Tokyo in March 1945.
Singapore: Former Minister Sentenced in Rare Graft Case
Former Singaporean minister S. Iswaran was sentenced to 12 months in prison for obstructing justice and receiving more than $300,000 (€272,000) worth of gifts.
Iswaran served as a cabinet minister for 13 years and has held portfolios such as trade, communications, and transport.
He was charged with four counts of receiving gifts improperly and one count of obstructing justice.
This case has caused shock and become an outlier in Singapore which is known for clean and efficient governance. As per Transparency International's corruption perception index, the city-state was among the five least corrupt countries in the world
A shocking case
The court issued a stringent sentence that was about double the six to seven months requested by the prosecution.
"Trust and confidence in public institutions were the bedrock of effective governance, which could all too easily be undermined by the appearance that an individual public servant had fallen below the standards of integrity and accountability," presiding Judge Vincent Hoong said.
Under the law, it is considered an offense for public servants to accept gifts of value from people they officially work with.
Iswaran allegedly accepted gifts from businessmen while serving as transport minister. These gifts included tickets to English Premier League football matches, the Singapore Formula 1 Grand Prix, London musicals, and a ride on a private jet.
The 62-year-old was released on bail and ordered to surrender to authorities on Monday to begin serving his sentence,
Iswaran had initially claimed innocence but pleaded guilty to the five charges last week. He faced a total of 35 charges.
Iswaran resigned from his post in January after being notified of the charges. He was arrested in July last year for taking illicit payments from property tycoon Ong Beng Seng.
Ong has not been charged with any offense. The Attorney General's Office said they would soon decide whether to take action against him.
The attorney general said Iswaran has paid back around $295,000 in financial gain to the government. Some gifts, including a Brompton bicycle, were seized.
Observers say this trial is of huge political significance in Singaporean history. It has also tainted the ruling People's Action Party's reputation, before the country heads to elections next year.
DR Congo: Dozens Dead after Lake Kivu Boat Capsizes
A vessel carrying hundreds of passengers sank in Lake Kivu with reports that at least 78 people have died.
A boat capsized in Lake Kivu, in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on Thursday, with well over 200 people on board.
The governor of South Kivu, Jean-Jacques Purusi, was quoted by both the Reuters news agency and the Associated Press (AP) as saying that 78 people were dead, after a vessel carrying 278 passengers capsized and sank.
"We do not yet have [the full picture of] the whole situation but we will have it by tomorrow," Purusi told AP.
Vessel overloaded according to reports
The heavily loaded vessel had been traveling from Minova in South Kivu province to Goma in North Kivu, a relatively short journey on the lake. AP reported that the vessel sank while trying to dock near the port of Kituku in the west of Goma and cited witnesses as saying that the boat was visibly overcrowded.
"I was at the port of Kituku when I saw the boat arriving from Minova, full of passengers," Francine Munyi told the AP. "It started to lose its balance and sank into the lake. Some people threw themselves into the water."
"Many died, and few were saved," she added. "I couldn't help them because I don't know how to swim."
Local officials earlier reported that as many as 50 were rescued as search and rescue efforts continued.
Fatal ferry incidents in DRC
Road infrastructure is relatively underdeveloped in the DRC and travelers in remote areas have few options available, meaning boats and ferries are the only choice for some.
Overloaded boats sinking are not uncommon, despite warnings from local officials that those violating safety measures will be punished.
In June, 80 people lost their lives when a boat sank near the capital Kinshasa while in January, 22 people died when their boat capsized in Lake Mai-Ndombe.
