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Lithium's ongoing slump has traders searching for recovery signs

Rtv news

  24 Jun 2024, 21:02
Spot prices of lithium carbonate in China have slid to the lowest since August 2021. (Stock Image)

Lithium industry watchers hoping the battery metal was poised to rebound from an epic slump have been hit by the realization prices have fallen again this month, with inventories piling up as electric vehicle demand signals stay gloomy.

Spot prices of lithium carbonate in China have slid to the lowest since August 2021 and the most-active futures on the Guangzhou exchange have lost 12% so far this month. In top producer Albemarle Corp.'s latest auction on June 19, the winning bid was down 6.9% from the previous sale on June 5.

The declines follow a plunge of more than 80% in 2023 due to a glut and slowing demand growth. Although prices stabilized earlier this year, the supply-chain is still working to clear inventories, with customers holding off purchases. The bearish sentiment has also been wreaking havoc on the stock prices of producers, including Albemarle and Piedmont Lithium Inc.

Rising lithium production and expectations of a summer lull are weighing on prices, according to Susan Zou, an analyst at researcher Rystad Energy. Despite the brief rebound earlier this year underpinned by lower supply around China's Lunar New Year holiday period and traders’ speculative buying upward drivers have 'mostly disappeared,' she said.

According to traders familiar with the matter, manufacturers grappling with slowing EV demand growth have been cutting orders for lithium products, in anticipation that they may soon be able to restock inventories at even lower prices.

Still, some traders said they see limited downside in prices, which have already been squeezing the margins of some higher-cost producers. Contracts in Guangzhou for July are the cheapest on offer, suggesting a bottoming out during summer.

Total lithium carbonate inventories in China have been on the rise since April, according to Citigroup Inc. Stockpiles held by downstream players — mainly cathode makers — rose 8% in the third week of June compared with the second, while those for other users including battery makers and traders soared 32%, analysts including Jack Shang said in a note on June 20.


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