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Can Putin rely on India to boost Russia's war economy?
Deutsche Welle
08 Jul 2024, 13:15
Photo: Alexandr Demyanchuk/SPUTNIK/AFP
India took a lot of flak in the West for increasing imports of Russian fossil fuels in the face of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The world's third-largest oil importer saw deliveries from Russia jump tenfold in 2022 and double again last year, thanks to heavy price discounts. India's coal imports from Russia rose threefold over the same two-year period.
Despite accusations of funding Putin's war machine, New Delhi has justified the increase by citing India's traditional "stable and friendly" ties with Moscow and its heavy reliance on imported oil.
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week, the Kremlin will be looking to further boost trade with the South Asian power to shore up Russia's commodity-dependent economy and lessen the impact of Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.
When announcing the talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that in addition to working together on global and regional security issues, there was "mutual political will" to boost trade and economic cooperation.
India, on the other hand, must tread a delicate path as it aims to maintain strong links with the West, seek new trade links with Moscow and retain a neutral position over the conflict.
DW looks at the current state of India-Russia trade ties and what the two leaders could agree on next.
How strong are India-Russia relations?
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and India built a strategic partnership for defense and trade that continued after the end of communism. In 2000, Putin, then Russia's prime minister, signed a new declaration of cooperation with New Delhi.
India is a major market for the Russian defense industry — until recently its largest. During the past two decades, Moscow supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases, totaling more than $60 billion (€55.8 billion), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
After Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Moscow sought to deepen its relations with India and China as a counterweight to the West. The Kremlin offered New Delhi huge discounts on oil, coal and fertilizer deliveries to boost the country's finances to fight the war.
As a result, India emerged as a major export market for Russian fossil fuels in search of new destinations in the wake of Western sanctions. In April, for example, Russian crude oil deliveries to India surged to a new record of 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the financial analytics firm S&P Global.
Bilateral trade between the two countries reached a record high of nearly $65.7 billion last year, figures from India's Department of Commerce showed. Trade is, however, massively stacked in Russia's favor, with India importing $61.4 billion worth of goods, including oil, fertilizers, precious stones and metals.
"For long, we have looked at Russia from a political or security perspective," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at an industry conference in May. "As that country turns eastwards, fresh economic opportunities are presenting themselves ... the spike in our trade and new areas of cooperation should not be regarded as a temporary phenomenon."
What are New Delhi's concerns about ties with Moscow?
While the West limited its criticism of India over the cheap oil deal with Russia, New Dehli's historic reliance on Moscow for weapons is a major concern for the US and Europe.
"New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West," Aleksei Zakharov, a researcher on Indian foreign policy at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), wrote in a paper last month.
Zakharov wrote of "structural challenges" that he said "appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties, adding that the defense cooperation between Russia and India is currently "in a state of limbo," partly as the Ukraine war and Western sanctions have hobbled Russia's arms sector.
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Flight from India to Germany Grounded over False Bomb Threat
A Vistara airlines flight from Mumbai to Frankfurt was forced to land in Turkey due to a bomb threat which turned out to be false. A paper with the words "bomb on board" was found in the lavatory.
A bomb threat forced a flight operated by Vistara Airlines to make an emergency landing in the city of Erzurum, Turkey on Friday, but the threat turned out to be false, according to the local governor.
The flight UK27 operated by India's Vistara Airlines was heading from the city of Mumbai to Frankfurt in Germany. It had 234 passengers and 13 crew on board.
Those on board were evacuated, said Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.
Alert over message in lavatory
A piece of paper with the words "bomb on board" was found in the lavatory of the plane, prompting the crew to make an emergency landing.
The flight landed at around 4:30 pm local time (1330 GMT).
"As of 23:30, we have completed all search and examination operations. As a result of the work we carried out, we found that the bomb threat was unfounded," Erzurum governor Mustafa Ciftci told reporters.
After receiving the alert, the authorities planed to land the plane at either Ordu or Trabzon cities in Turkey, but the flight was ultimately diverted to Erzurum due to air traffic, Turkey's TRT news reported.
Other flights landing and taking off from Erzurum airport had been stopped as a precaution. The halt was lifted after the threat was cleared.
Vistara also confirmed authorities had checked for threats and said it had arranged for an alternate flight with a fresh crew for the passengers stranded in Turkey.
Manipur in Turmoil: / Drone and Rocket Attacks Ignite Fear Across Districts
Panic has gripped Jiribam and Bishnupur districts in Manipur following a series of drone and rocket attacks. The violent shelling has resulted in at least six deaths and numerous injuries. Terrified residents reported seeing drones flying continuously, creating a harrowing atmosphere in their homes.
Local officials informed the Press Trust of India (PTI) that many drones were spotted over Bishnupur and Imphal East on Friday night, spreading extreme fear among the population. In response, residents turned off their lights and remained indoors to avoid detection.
Insurgents have reportedly dropped bombs from drones at two locations near Imphal West, exacerbating the panic and increasing the number of drones observed over the affected areas.
A Manipur government spokesperson stated that security forces are on high alert, closely monitoring the situation and imposing restrictions on large gatherings to maintain control in the conflict zones.
Israeli atrocities continue in Gaza, 31 more Palestinians killed
On Saturday, 31 Palestinians were killed in a barbaric Israeli attack on the besieged Palestinian territory of Gaza. With this, the total number of victims in the valley has exceeded 40,939 and more than 94,000 Palestinians have been injured since October last year.
Meanwhile, health workers completed the second phase of the emergency polio vaccination program to prevent a large-scale outbreak amid brutal attacks by Israel.
According to Al Jazeera report, three women and two children were killed in central Gaza's Nuseirat refugee camp on Saturday by Israeli shelling. Separately, Gaza's Civil Defense Agency said at least eight people were killed in an Israeli attack on a school used as a shelter for displaced Palestinians. Twenty people were injured in the attack on the Amr Ibn Al-As school in the Abu Iskandar area of Sheikh Radwan neighborhood in northern Gaza City.
Gaza's Health Ministry said on Saturday, at least 61 more Palestinians were killed in Israel's ongoing attacks in the Gaza Strip. Due to this, the total number of dead has increased to 40,939 since October last year. The ministry said in a statement that at least 94,616 people were also injured in this relentless attack. Many people are still trapped under the rubble and on the streets as rescuers are unable to reach them.
Palestinian health authorities believe more than 10,000 people are still missing under the rubble of destroyed homes across the Gaza Strip. Despite a UN Security Council resolution essentially demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, Israel has continued its brutal assault on the besieged territory.
It should be noted that since the unprecedented cross-border attack by Hamas on October 7, Israel has been carrying out continuous air and ground attacks on the Gaza Strip. Thousands of buildings including hospitals, schools, refugee camps, mosques, churches have been damaged or destroyed in this Israeli attack.
According to the United Nations, about 85 percent of Gaza's Palestinians have been displaced by Israel's brutal offensive. And with acute shortages of food, clean water and medicine, all of Gaza is now food insecure. Moreover, 60 percent of the infrastructure in the besieged territory has been damaged or destroyed. Israel has already been accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
Hurricane Francine Disrupts Gulf Coast Oil, Gas Output
Tropical Storm Francine is set to become a hurricane Tuesday as it churns toward Louisiana, forcing some oil drillers to halt production and evacuate crews in the Gulf of Mexico.
Strong winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected along the region’s shoreline, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 4 a.m. in Houston. Francine is "anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday," the center said.
The system, located 415 miles (665 kilometers) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, saw winds accelerate to 65 miles per hour. They are forecast to reach 100 miles per hour eventually, which would make Francine a Category 2 hurricane.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City. Storm surge warnings are in place from High Island, Texas, near Houston, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, and Shell Plc are among the companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities, and shutting in some wells. The storm’s forecast path intersects with fields that account for roughly 125,000 barrels of crude and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, according to Bloomberg calculations using government data.
Gas supply to Cameron LNG also fell about 41% from the previous day, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.
On its expected track, Francine may rake nine major platforms, including Enchilada, Cerveza, Perdido and Hoover. That said, the storm probably won't have a large impact on overall energy production, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research, said in a social media post.
Listen on Zero: Climate Change Is 'Loading the Weather Dice Against Us'.
Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition X-Ray at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas harbors, a warning that rough weather is expected within 48 hours. One upside to Francine, as it moves ashore, is that it will bring much-needed water to the parched Mississippi River, temporarily raising the fortune of shippers before dry conditions set in again.
This will be the third storm to hit the US mainland this year. As Francine nears the coastline, it could encounter cross winds, or wind shear, that would threaten to weaken it.
The hurricane center is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles or more from populated areas.
Source: EC
Harris, Trump Clash Over Key Issues in Fiery Debate
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump traded blows in the first presidential debate of the 2024 race — clashing over issues including abortion, economy and foreign wars.
Harris and Trump met each other for the first time as the debate kicked off. The first topic of the debate was the economy and cost of living. ABC News anchor David Muir asked Harris if Americans are better off than they were four years ago in regards to rising prices.
Harris didn't answer the question directly, but rather outlined her economic plans if she takes office. She also mentioned a Goldman Sachs report which said that a Harris term would strengthen the economy while Trump's policies would stifle growth.
Trump criticized rising costs of goods such as bacon during incumbent President Joe Biden's term. He also claimed that Harris "copied Biden's plan" for the economy.
Trump distances himself from controversial Project 2025
Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation project that was put together by hundreds of high-profile conservatives. “I haven’t read it. I don’t want to read it, purposefully. I’m not going to read it,” he says.
The project has controversial ideas like cutting abortion and a reduction of the federal government's role in education.
Harris labels Trump tariffs as 'sales tax'
Harris criticized Trump's plans to raise more tariffs on goods from China and other countries, calling it a "sales tax" on Americans.
Trump, meanwhile, said the tariffs would raise money for the United States and claimed that tariffs would not raise prices for consumers.
Harris, Trump get heated on issue of abortion
The Supreme Court's overturn of Roe v. Wade, which has led to abortion being restricted across the country, also was touched on during the debate. The conservative-majority court overturned the decadeslong ruling in 2022, thanks to three justices appointed by Trump.
"I pledge to you, when Congress passes a bill to put back in place the protection of Roe v. Wade as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law," Harris said.
Harris also said Trump supports a nationwide abortion ban, which the former president denied.
Trump, meanwhile, said he believes "in the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother."
Trump on US Capitol riot: 'I had nothing to do with that'
When asked about the January 6, 2021 US Capitol riot, Trump said: "I had nothing to do with that, other than they asked me to make a speech."
Trump gave a speech in Washington DC shortly before his supporters stormed the Capitol building, where he called them to "fight like hell." He also told his supporters to proceed peacefully to the Capitol at the time.
The Capitol riot came after months of Trump falsely claiming that Joe Biden "rigged" the 2020 election. Trump filed numerous lawsuits after the election to dispute the results, the vast majority of them being shot down.
During the debate, the president also said he was showing sarcasm recently when he said he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden by a whisker.
Harris, Trump on Israel-Hamas war in Gaza
Trump and Harris were asked about how they would end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
Harris repeated some of her previous remarks, saying that Israel has a right to defend itself following Hamas terror attacks on October 7 that killed some 1,200 people in Israel last year.
But she added it matters how Israel did so. "This war must end," she says, adding: "It must end immediately."
She called for a cease-fire in Gaza and hostages held by militants to be freed.
She then said "we must chart a course for a two-state solution" which must ensure security for Israelis and "in equal measure" for Palestinians.
Trump was then asked about the topic. He began by claiming that the conflict would have "never started" if he were still president.
Trump, Harris have heated exchange on Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The two candidates also traded blows over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"I want the war to stop. I want to save lives," Trump said, while claiming Joe Biden's administration allowed the invasion to happen. At the same time, Trump dodged a question on whether he wants Ukraine "to win" the war. Harris, meanwhile, said Trump would give in and let Russian President Vladimir Putin take over Ukraine.
Harris, Trump give closing statements
At the end of the debate, Harris and Trump both gave closing statements.
During her closing remarks, Harris repeated her oft-used phrase during the campaign: "We are not going back."
Harris said said her approach is "focused on the future" and said "we can chart a new way forward."
During Trump's remarks, he said that Harris, as part of the Biden administration, failed to "fix the border" and "create jobs."
"She should leave right now, go down to that beautfiul White House, go to the Capitol, get everyone together, and do the things you want to do but you haven't done it — you won't do it," Trump said.
Ballistic Missiles to Russia: / US, Europe Sanction Iran
The US, UK, France and Germany have announced new sanctions on Iran, formally accusing it of sending ballistic missiles to Russia for the first time after weeks of warnings. They plan to sanction the aviation sector.
The United States, Britain, France and Germany said on Tuesday that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine and that fresh sanctions would swiftly follow as a result.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the announcement during a visit to London at a press conference with his British counterpart, David Lammy.
"Russia has now received shipments of these ballistic missiles and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine, against Ukrainians," Blinken said. "The supply of Iranian missiles enables Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets that are further from the front line."
Blinken and Lammy are set to travel on to Kyiv on Wednesday.
The governments of France, Britain and Germany issued a joint statement condemning the alleged transfer of missiles, calling it "an escalation by both Iran and Russia," and "a direct threat to European security."
Aviation sector targeted in new sanctions
They said they had made it clear during repeated warnings in recent weeks that "new and significant measures against Iran" would follow if the deliveries took place.
"We will be taking immediate steps to cancel bilateral air services with Iran. In addition, we will pursue the designations of significant entities and individuals involved with Iran's ballistic missile program and the transfer of ballistic missiles and other weapons to Russia. We will also work towards imposing sanctions on Iran Air," the governments said.
Blinken had also outlined similar plans on the part of the US, again with a focus on Iran Air and aviation.
An updated sanctions list on the US Treasury Department website details new sanctions imposed on 10 Iranian nationals and five Iranian companies in the transportation and propulsion industries with alleged links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and to Russia.
Several Russian organizations were also sanctioned for "their intent to use [Iranian] weapons systems" against Ukraine, as well as five Russian vessels involved in transporting military supplies from Iran to Russia.
Washington also sanctioned Iranian airline Iran Air "for operating or having operated in the transportation sector of the Russian Federation economy," the Treasury Department said in a statement.
The UK said it is terminating "all direct air services between the UK and Iran."
The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, also pledged a "strong response" and said a proposed set of measures had been forwarded to member states. Sanctions at the EU level require the green light from all 27 members and can take longer to approve.
But EU members are also at liberty to pursue most foreign policy matters independently, including bilateral sanctions, hence France and Germany's announcement on Tuesday along with the UK.
Iran denies arming Russia, also with 'Shahed' drones
Iran has in the past denied sending weapons to either Ukraine or Russia, saying it considers this "inhumane" and liable to increase civilian casualties and reduce the chances of a truce.
However, Ukraine has frequently reported the use of Iranian-made "Shahed" drones in attacks on its territory since late in 2022, not long after Russia's full-scale invasion that February.
Responding on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani issued a lengthy statement online. For the most part, it focused on the conflict in Gaza and the wider Middle East and US or Western military support for Israel.
The last paragraph addressed the allegations at hand, calling them "false and misleading news," "ugly propaganda" and a "lie with the aim of concealing the dimensions of the massive illegal arms support of the United States and some Western countries for the genocide in the Gaza Strip."
It went into no detail and made no attempt to demonstrate the allegations being "false."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, declined to comment on the reports on Tuesday but told reporters in Moscow that Russia and Iran were cooperating on various issues, including "the most sensitive" areas.
Blinken had alleged that Iran's provision of missiles to Russia was "a two-way street, including on nuclear issues as well as some space information."
What is Iran accused of sending to Russia?
According to media reports in recent days, typically citing US or European officials speaking on condition of anonymity, Iran has transferred short-range Fath-360 (sometimes also called BN-120) ballistic missiles to Russia. These have a range of around 120 kilometers or 75 miles.
Blinken said in London that dozens of Russian military personnel had trained in Iran, learning how to operate the system.
"Iran's new president and foreign minister have repeatedly said that they want to restore engagement with Europe," Blinken said on Tuesday, referring to the country's longstanding international isolation over its nuclear ambitions and other issues. "They want to receive sanctions relief. Destabilizing actions like these will achieve exactly the opposite."
Ukraine calls sanctions a 'positive step' but not enough
Ukraine's Andriy Yermak, the head of the office of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, described the planned sanctions on Iran as a "positive step" but said they did not go far enough.
"We also need authorization to use Western weapons against military targets on Russia territory, the provision of longer-range weapons, and the enhancement of our air defense systems," Yermak said on social media
Ukraine has been pushing in recent weeks for more explicit authorization to strike targets deeper inside Russia using weaponry supplied by Western allies, but many major NATO members including the US, UK, France and Germany are yet to issue it.
It is already using some of its weapons for strikes deep inside Russia, as Tuesday's reports of overnight disruptions at three Moscow-area airports following alleged drone attacks demonstrated.
Europe: Extreme weather warnings in Germany, Poland, Austria
Heavy rainfall particularly in the Czech Republic is expected to have knock-on effects in neighboring Poland, Germany, Austria, and Slovakia. Meanwhile, the first heavy snow of the year is expected in the Bavarian Alps.
Large parts of central Europe are bracing for potential flooding this weekend with heavy rainfall expected across parts of Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria.
Up to 400 mm of rain is expected to fall on the highlands on the Polish-Czech border within just 72 hours, according to local meteorological stations, with consequences for surrounding regions and nearby towns and cities.
In Poland, authorities have issued their highest weather warning in the southern voivodeships — or regions — of Lower Silesia, Opole, and Silesia, while the mayor of the city of Wroclaw has convened a crisis committee. In 1997, a third of Wroclaw was flooded when the River Oder burst its banks.
"There is a realistic risk of local inundations from Friday to Sunday," said the Polish weather service.
Czech Republic expecting heaviest rain in over 20 years
In the neighboring Czech Republic, forecasters have warned of heavy rain and winds reaching up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) per hour in the eastern region of Moravia, where towns and cities have been installing anti-flood barriers and preparing sandbags to battle the elements.
Czech Environment Minister Petr Hladik compared the situation to "the ones we experienced in 1997 and 2002," when flooding caused the loss of dozens of lives and billions of euros' worth of damage.
Like in 2002, the weather in the Czech Republic could have an effect over the border in Germany and particularly in the eastern city of Dresden, where authorities are still dealing with a collapsed bridge over the River Elbe.
Czech authorities have already warned that they won't be able to restrict or reduce water levels in the Elbe, which flows from the Czech Republic into Saxony.
Germany, Austria, and Slovakia braced for flooding
Across the Czech Republic's southern and eastern borders, authorities in Austria and Slovakia have canceled events and are also preparing to deploy military personnel to support emergency services.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said on Wednesday that up to 1,000 soldiers were on standby as state broadcaster ORF predicted the rainfall could cause the level of the River Danube to rise to five-year or even ten-year-highs.
Slovak fire brigade chief Adrian Mifkovic said mobile dams measuring five to six kilometers were ready for deployment, while the Slovak army and voluntary firefighters were also on alert.
Meanwhile in southern Germany, between 60 and 100 mm of rain are expected in some Bavarian Alpine regions, where the German Meteorological Service (DWD) is also forecasting the first heavy snowfalls of the year, with up to 50 centimeters or nearly 20 inches of fresh snow set to fall in regions above 1,500 meters.
