After an intense 11-day conflict with Iran, which concluded on its 12th day with a ceasefire, occupying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that they had achieved all their war objectives in Iran.
At the onset of this short-term conflict, Netanyahu set two primary goals: the destruction of Iran's nuclear program and the downfall of its government. However, the outcome appears to be the opposite of what he intended.
Nuclear Ambitions Undeterred
Was Iran's nuclear infrastructure destroyed? The answer is very likely "no." Even a US attack on Iran's highly fortified Fordow nuclear facility failed to destroy it. Furthermore, Tehran had preemptively relocated its stockpiles of enriched uranium—a crucial component for nuclear activities—meaning these remain intact. This signifies a clear failure of Israel's objective. Iran is unlikely to ever disclose the extent of damage to its nuclear facilities from the US attack.
Government Unshaken
Did Israel succeed in overthrowing the Iranian government? The simple answer is an emphatic "no." At the beginning of the war, Israeli forces targeted and killed high-ranking officials within Iran's armed forces. Their aim was to sow chaos within the military and incite a popular uprising against the government.
Israel operates on the premise that assassinating high-ranking leaders is the most effective way to weaken adversaries. While Israel found success with this tactic in eliminating Hezbollah's top leader Hassan Nasrallah, it has failed elsewhere. In Iran, this strategy completely backfired.
When Israel assassinated military officials, the Iranian populace, instead of revolting, rallied in support of their armed forces. Even after Israel killed the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, a figure many Iranians disliked, those who previously opposed him began to support the Revolutionary Guard. This shift occurred because Iranians perceived Israel's attacks as targeting not just government infrastructure, but the entirety of Iran.
Strategic Failures and Unintended Consequences
Israel also bombed Evin Prison in Iran, aiming to free political prisoners and instigate a coup. This, too, had the opposite effect; several prisoners have since been moved to undisclosed locations by Iranian forces.
An "odd" move by Israel was attacking Iran's state television, claiming it was disseminating false information. This attack, however, prompted Iranians to begin threatening Israeli TV stations in retaliation.
Did Israel garner global support? The answer is "no." While Israel managed to persuade the US to attack nuclear facilities, and the German Chancellor was quick to legitimize it, other global powers did not offer such widespread approval. Furthermore, the international community largely ignored Israel's demand that Iran not be allowed to possess any uranium stockpiles.
World leaders have asserted that while Iran can stockpile uranium for civilian purposes, it cannot develop nuclear weapons. Iran, for its part, has stated its readiness to cooperate on this front.
Moreover, following the attacks, Middle Eastern countries now view trade with Iran as legitimate, marking a defeat for Israel and a victory for Iran.
Iran's Resilience and Counter-Strikes
At the war's outset, Israel quickly established air superiority over Iran, allowing them to strike targets at will. However, Iran also launched missiles targeting Israel. Despite Israel's "popular" air defense systems, these missiles directly hit central Israeli cities, causing significant damage and casualties.
As the war progressed, Israel's defensive missile stocks dwindled, meaning their ability to intercept Iranian missiles would have been exhausted within a short time. These missiles were depleting so rapidly that replenishment in a timely manner was impossible for Israel, indicating that they would eventually lose their capacity to defend against Iranian attacks.
Additionally, the war brought the Israeli economy to a near standstill, another victory for Iran.
While Iran suffered significant damage, with many infrastructures destroyed and countless lives lost, it did not crumble despite facing such a formidable military like Israel's.
The impact of Iranian missiles on Israeli buildings boosted Iran's image, contrary to fears that its existence would be jeopardized. Furthermore, by informing the US in advance, Iran launched missiles at US bases in Qatar, effectively preventing wider conflict escalation.
Even when occupying Israel attempted further attacks on Iran after a ceasefire violation, Iran possessed sufficient power to tell President Trump to ensure Israel launched no new attacks.
(Source: Ori Goldberg, Al Jazeera)
