Warming Vietnam-China Ties: Hugging a Wolf in Panda’s Clothing

Vietnam’s national identity has long been shaped by its struggle against Chinese domination. For over a millennium, various Chinese dynasties ruled Vietnam, leaving an enduring sense of insecurity. This historical “millennium of grievance” has profoundly influenced Vietnam’s strategic thinking, reinforcing concerns about threats from the north. Even Vietnam’s term for “country” (đất nước) emphasizes land (“đất”) before water (“nước”), reflecting a traditional focus on land-based threats despite its maritime geography.

Though Vietnam and China share Communist ideologies, their relationship has evolved beyond ideology. Three decades after the Cold War, both countries maintain party-to-party ties, but these exchanges now focus more on strategic reassurance than ideological alignment. Tensions over issues such as the South China Sea persist beneath the surface of their diplomatic engagements.

Strategic Reassurance Amid Historical Tensions
The recent elevation of Tô Lâm as the Vietnamese Communist Party’s new General Secretary underscores a tightening alignment with China. Tô Lâm’s first state visit after his appointment was to Beijing on August 19, 2024, where Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the “strategic significance” of bilateral relations. His leadership mirrors Xi’s focus on national security and strengthens anti-corruption campaigns that consolidate political power.

This growing alignment requires setting aside contentious issues like the South China Sea disputes. Lâm’s cozying up to Beijing allows both countries to downplay differences for now, especially given China’s simultaneous pressure on the Philippines over maritime claims. However, the deep-rooted mistrust between the two nations has not disappeared—Vietnamese leaders remain cautious about Beijing’s intentions.

Economic Cooperation with Limits
Vietnam’s relationship with China is shaped by pragmatic interests, but tensions remain. China’s economic influence comes with political risks, as Beijing’s control over trade and infrastructure projects leaves Hanoi concerned about economic dependency. While Vietnam benefits from Chinese trade, investments, and infrastructure initiatives, it has also canceled oil and gas projects under Chinese pressure, incurring nearly $1 billion in compensation to foreign firms.

Read More

Emergence of a New Indo-Maldives Strategic Dynamic

China’s illegal, unregulated fishing (IUU) activities and maritime restrictions force Vietnamese fishermen to venture farther south, complicating Vietnam’s fishing industry. Additionally, Vietnam accuses China’s upstream damming of the Mekong River of exacerbating saline intrusion and drought in the Mekong Delta, adding to local farmers' frustrations.

Managing Maritime Conflicts
Despite the diplomatic warm-up, maritime disputes remain unresolved. Vietnam refuses to drop its sovereignty claims over the Paracel and Spratly Islands and has intensified land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea. While China tolerates these moves for now, tensions could easily resurface. Unlike the Philippines, which challenged China’s maritime claims through international arbitration, Vietnam pursues a quieter strategy, balancing cooperation with resistance.

The complexity of Vietnam-China relations lies in their evolution from hostility to cautious friendship. Though the two nations share Communist roots, Hanoi increasingly views Beijing’s policies as driven by national interests rather than ideology. While ideological conservatives in Hanoi advocate for socialist solidarity, nationalist elites recognize that China’s geopolitical ambitions pose a long-term threat.

Domestic Implications of Economic and Cyber Misconduct
Vietnam’s challenges with China extend beyond the maritime domain. Chinese criminal syndicates operating out of Sihanoukville, Cambodia, have entrapped Vietnamese nationals in forced labor schemes disguised as job opportunities. Disturbing videos of victims swimming across the border to escape these operations have gone viral, further straining public perceptions of China.

Strategic Balancing Act
Although the warming ties between Vietnam and China seem beneficial for both parties, Hanoi remains wary of falling too deeply into Beijing’s orbit. Vietnam’s leadership is acutely aware that allowing foreign military bases on its soil would provoke China, complicating regional security dynamics. For Vietnam, maintaining its sovereignty and autonomy remains a top priority.

Beijing’s growing economic influence over Hanoi, combined with historical grievances, fuels anxiety among Vietnamese leaders about vulnerabilities in defense and trade. China’s relentless push for dominance in the South China Sea makes clear that neither ideology nor economic interdependence can temper its geopolitical ambitions. Vietnam, historically invaded multiple times from the sea, views maritime security as central to its national strategy.

Conclusion
Though Beijing and Hanoi project an image of solidarity, the relationship remains fragile. Vietnam’s long-term goal is to reclaim lost maritime territories, and its leaders know that China will not relinquish its ambitions. As Tô Lâm navigates this delicate partnership, he may soon discover that China is more wolf than panda—disguising strategic ambitions beneath friendly overtures.