How US-Philippines Quiet Show of South China Sea Strength Sent 'A Clear Message'

Days before Donald Trump’s inauguration, Washington quietly deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the disputed South China Sea and staged secretive naval drills with the Philippines.

The timing was deliberate and the message unmistakable, analysts say – it signalled the US’ determination to continue challenging China’s increasingly provocative actions and regional dominance.

Over two days in waters near Palawan, US and Philippine forces held maritime defence exercises, part of a broader series of Maritime Cooperative Activities (MCA) that began in late 2023.

The drills on Friday and Saturday – kept under wraps until their conclusion – featured the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group alongside Philippine vessels BRP Antonio Luna and BRP Andres Bonifacio. The exercises included tactical manoeuvres and communication drills aimed at bolstering interoperability between the two allies.

“With each exercise, we become increasingly prepared and effective in addressing the challenges ahead,” said General Romeo Brawner Jnr, commander of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, on Sunday.

“This is a result of our shared commitment and mutual effort to safeguard our national interests, and secure a peaceful region.”

US Rear Admiral Michael Wosje echoed this sentiment, describing the US-Philippine alliance as “ironclad” while emphasising the drills’ role in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.

But the message wasn’t just for Manila. Analysts say the timing and secrecy of the drills were squarely aimed at Beijing, which has ramped up military activities in the South China Sea in recent months.

China’s deployment of its double carrier battle group and the “monster” – its 165-metre-long (180-yard-long) coastguard vessel – has stoked tensions in contested waters, particularly near Scarborough Shoal, a flashpoint claimed by both Manila and Beijing.

“These exercises send a clear message to China, serving as both a statement of resolve and a deterrent,” said Chris Gardiner, CEO of the Institute for Regional Security in Canberra.

“The US has a defence treaty with the Philippines. The US military should and will be undertaking exercises based on threat assessments, not on domestic politics, and will do so until such time as the new commander in chief adopts new China or Philippines policies,” he told This Week in Asia.

Gardiner dismissed talk of the US drills as “secret”, however, saying they were merely not revealed ahead of time. The exercises should instead be viewed as “an expression of US commitment to and capabilities with the Philippines” and a sign that Washington was ready to act if deterrence failed, he said, noting China’s recent displays of force in the region.

“It is crucial that such posturing does not go unanswered,” Gardiner said, “or else both China and allies may misread US levels of commitment”.

Other analysts argued that Beijing’s aggressive posturing often backfired. “Sending the monster ship is creating more resentment,” said Jose Antonio Custodio, a defence analyst and fellow at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers. “It’s China creating the conditions [for these responses].”

Custodio noted the irony: while Beijing is increasingly assertive, its military assets, including its conventionally powered carrier groups, still lag behind the US Navy’s ageing but formidable Nimitz-class carriers.

The timing of the drills also indicated that the new Trump administration was likely to continue its policy on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Custodio said.

“It won’t change. The actions may become more intense, but they will remain consistent,” he told This Week in Asia. “I would expect the Trump government to do the same policy in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The South China Sea is a critical global trade route, with about a third of the world’s maritime trade – valued at more than US$3 trillion – passing through its waters annually.

Beijing claims nearly the entire waterway, dismissing overlapping claims from neighbours such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. It also rejects a 2016 international arbitral ruling invalidating its claims, arguing the decision lacks legal merit.

Geopolitical expert Arnaud Leveau, an assistant professor at Paris Dauphine University and researcher at the Asia Centre think tank in France, noted that while Trump was likely to push for stronger financial commitments from partners such as the Philippines, strategic interests and regional security concerns would endure.

“The security partnership between the US and the Philippines is a key component of the US presence in the region,” he said, adding that strengthening alliances will only grow more critical as China’s military capabilities expand.

Yet, the risks of escalation are ever-present. In June 2023, a Chinese warship came within 150 yards (137 metres) of the USS Chung-Hoon in the Taiwan Strait, forcing the US destroyer to alter course to avoid a collision.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, president of the Philippine Association of Chinese Studies and a research fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, warned that while the latest drills improve US-Philippine readiness, they won’t necessarily de-escalate tensions.

“If something happens, the US and China can test their crisis management hotline,” he said, underscoring the razor’s edge diplomacy at play in the disputed waters.