Beirut Explosions Stoke Fear of Retaliation

After Wednesday's simultaneous explosions of walkie-talkies, which killed three people and injured more than 300 in Lebanon's capital Beirut, and Tuesday's mass explosions of hundreds of pagers, which had left at least nine people dead and around 2,800 injured across Lebanon, there are now fears of a wider escalation in the region.

The attacks on both days targeted members of Hezbollah, a political party and militant group in Lebanon, while Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Modjtaba Amani, was also injured.

Iran-backed Hezbollah holds Israel responsible for the strikes. Iran, too, has accused Israel of "mass murder." On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani called the attack an "act of terrorism."

Several countries, including the United States in 1997 and Germany in 2020, have designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The European Union designated only its armed wing as a terrorist group in 2013.

Hezbollah has long been using radio receivers, so-called pagers, as they cannot be located like mobile phones.

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According to media reports, Israel may have intercepted a shipment of Gold Apollo pagers to plant explosives in them. The prepared devices were then supplied to Hezbollah where they exploded on Tuesday.

An Israeli strike?
While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, it is widely seen as part of the violence between Israel and Hezbollah that has intensified since October 7, 2023.

That day, the militant Islamist group Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Germany, the European Union, the US and several other countries, launched an attack against Israel. Hamas fighters killed more than 1,150 people and took around 250 people hostage.

In solidarity with Hamas, Hezbollah then began shelling the border area in northern Israel. Over 60,000 Israelis left their homes as a result. Also, around 110,000 people on the Lebanese side fled to other parts of the country.

Not only Iran and Hezbollah but also Israeli media largely assume that Israel is responsible for the attacks of the past days.

According to the leading Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the decision to detonate the pagers was made on short notice. Initially, the operation was supposed to start at the beginning of an expected major escalation.

However, two Hezbollah members apparently noticed that the pagers had been prepared, Haaretz reported on Wednesday. In turn, the decision was made to detonate the pagers earlier than planned.

"Hezbollah's operational units have been revealed to be completely penetrated and have been severely damaged, which is likely to increase the sense of insecurity inside the organization while eroding its command-and-control system for the near future," Haaretz wrote.

Strikes reflect diplomatic failure
According to Israeli political analyst Gil Murciano, executive director of the think tank Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, the operation was carried out in light of the fact that a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah is not in sight.

"It is true that the pagers apparently had to be detonated earlier than originally planned," he told DW.

"In view of the unresolved and presumably escalating conflict, the action indicates to Hezbollah that Israel already views the current situation as open war," he said.

He further sees a willingness to escalate the tense situation as part of this war. "It is not just a matter of seizing an operational opportunity. Israel is much rather showing that it will take every conceivable measure to limit Hezbollah's fighting power," he told DW.

Beirut-based journalist Ronnie Chatah, editor of the website The Beirut Banyan, said on Wednesday that it remains to be seen how Hezbollah will react. However, he assumes that the militia will refrain from retaliating on a massive scale.

"The war is likely to continue to be limited to military targets," he said. Hezbollah will not do anything that could extend the war beyond that, Chatah assumes.

The role of the US
The attack occurred just as Amos Hochstein, political advisor to US President Joe Biden, was traveling to the region.

Earlier this week, Hochstein had held talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The talks aimed to convince the Israeli leadership not to launch a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon and, therefore, avert the threat of war between Israel and Hezbollah.

According to the schedule, Hochstein is supposed to travel to Lebanon, where he will meet with representatives of the Lebanese government. The plan is that Lebanese government officials will then coordinate with Hezbollah.

Hochstein was apparently unaware of the upcoming operation.

However, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant informed US counterpart Lloyd Austin that time was running out for an agreement with Hezbollah, saying, "The trajectory is clear."

According to Gil Murciano, the strikes will unlikely strain relations between Israel and the US. "The Americans say they were not informed about the attack. What matters to them is to mediate in the region," he told DW.

However, Chatah, the Beirut-based journalist, points out that the US administration doesn't have a point of contact in Lebanon. "There are no representatives, no politicians who are capable of ending the conflict in a way that would actually benefit the country," he said, adding that "none of these politicians are in a position to persuade Hezbollah to give in."

"On the other hand, it seems to me that the Israelis don't always take American concerns into account either," he added.

Israel's Haaretz newspaper doesn't seem to be very optimistic about how the situation will develop. "The attack attributed to Israel exposed Hezbollah's weakness and humiliated its leaders," the editors wrote, adding that "this is not the kind of incident that ends quietly in the Middle East."