Azerbaijan Airlines Plane crash: Is Russia Responsible?

Deutsche Welle

Publish : 28 Dec 2024, 03:59 PM

Photo: The Administration of Mangystau Region/AP/dpa/picture alliance

Two days after an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan appears to be increasing pressure on Russia.

Although an investigation is still underway in Kazakhstan, preliminary results have been leaked to the press. With an accidental Russian air defense missile strike now the leading theory behind the crash, more and more Azerbaijani officials are calling on Russia to admit responsibility.

What happened on Christmas morning?
The Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a field near Aktau, in western Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers onboard, 38 died and 29 were hospitalized, some with severe injuries.

The plane wasn't supposed to land in Aktau. The aircraft had taken off from Baku, in Azerbaijan, on Wednesday morning and was due to land in Grozny, Russia, an area that has recently been heavily targeted by Ukrainian drones, when something happened to it that some survivors later described as a collision with a bird.

Videos of the emergency landing near Aktau show the plane gaining altitude, then sharply descending before crashing to the ground and catching fire. Other videos showed the wrecked aircraft lying in the field.

Apart from the damage caused by the crash, the videos show the fuselage riddled with small holes. Some experts, including those DW spoke to, said these holes may be attributed to a strike by Russia's anti-aircraft systems.

Investigation underway
Kazakhstan has launched an investigation into the causes of the incident. An investigative commission established by the country's prime minister will include the participation of, among others, a deputy prime minister and the leadership of several ministries. The commission is said to be collaborating with Azerbaijan.

As of Friday evening local time, no details of the investigation have been announced by any government official. Kazakhstan's parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, said Thursday that investigators didn't yet know what had caused the tragedy. He also called the theory of a Russian anti-aircraft system strike speculation. "Spreading such allegations is not right and unethical," he said.

This reaction corresponds with the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. He has so far refused to comment on the allegations about the Russian air defense system strike. Instead, he has called on the parties to wait until the investigation in Kazakhstan is completed.

Reactions in Baku
In Baku, the authorities seem less patient. Sources in the Azerbaijani government have leaked the preliminary results of the investigation to the press. According to sources cited by Euronews and the Reuters news agency, the plane might have mistakenly been struck by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile-gun system, and the aircraft's communication "was paralyzed" by electronic warfare systems as it approached Grozny.

"No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft," the source, who had knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation, told Reuters.

In another article published by the local news website Day. Az on Friday, sources in the Azerbaijani president's offices said they had abruptly refused to accept any help offered by the Chechen authorities in Grozny.

"We are providing and will continue to provide the necessary assistance to our citizens. Azerbaijan demands recognition of the fact, an apology, and the payment of appropriate compensations," a source said.

Azerbaijan Airlines suspends flights to some Russian regions
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended several flights from Baku to seven cities in Russia starting December 28. These are areas at risk of Ukrainian drone attacks and where Russian air defense systems are active.

In an official statement, the airline said the plane that crashed on Wednesday experienced "external physical and technical interference."

After growing signs of irritation on the Azerbaijani side went public, Russian aviation authorities released more details about the circumstances leading up to the plane crash.

The head of Russia's civil aviation authority, Dmitry Yadrov, said Friday that the so-called Carpet plan had been implemented before the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash due to a Ukrainian drone attack.

The plan means that the airport in Grozny was closed for departures and arrivals and all aircraft were required to leave the area.

According to Yadrov, the pilots unsuccessfully attempted to land in Grozny twice. He mentioned that the area was covered in dense fog. The crew then allegedly refused to consider alternative landing options in Russia and flew to Aktau, before the plane crashed in the coastal area.

Pro-Kremlin bloggers admit a Russian strike
While Russian state-run media appear keen to avoid mentioning the possibility of a Russian missile hitting the plane, pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Telegram seem to have no doubts about what happened.

The most popular military Telegram channels such as Rybar, Yuri Podolyaka and Alex Parker write that the Russian anti-aircraft system strike seems to be the most likely cause of the crash.

"But I am sure that the Chechens will manage to avoid responsibility, and no one will be punished," a post on the Alex Parker channel reads.

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