Global crude oil prices extended their gains for a fourth straight day on Thursday, July 16, as renewed military friction between the United States and Iran, coupled with potential disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, stoked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Market Performance
According to Reuters, crude benchmarks saw further upward pressure today:

• Brent crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $85.28 per barrel.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 42 cents, or 0.5%, hitting $80.02 per barrel.

These increases build upon a 0.3% rise from the previous day, bringing prices near the one-month highs established earlier this week.

Drivers of the Surge
The current market rally is largely attributed to the following factors:

Military Escalation: Following U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases and coastal defense systems, Washington has re-imposed naval blockades on key Iranian ports. Iran has responded with threats to further limit regional energy exports, describing the situation as an "existential war."

Strait of Hormuz Risks: The potential for disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary concern for investors. Prior to the height of current hostilities, the strait was a vital conduit for approximately 20% of the world's total oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.

Broader Regional Instability: There are growing concerns that Iran may exert further pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait through its allies in Yemen, which would threaten another critical global energy chokepoint.

Analyst Perspectives
Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, noted, "The renewed tensions in the Middle East have spurred a buying trend. While international mediation efforts are ongoing and the market currently assesses the probability of a full-scale war as low, a further deterioration in the situation could push WTI crude prices toward $85–$87 per barrel."

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs has warned that if oil exports from the Gulf region face prolonged disruptions, Brent crude prices could exceed $110 per barrel by the end of the year.

However, if tensions subside and production levels stabilize quickly, prices could retreat to the $60 range.

Inventory Data
Adding to the bullish sentiment, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending July 10. While this drawdown was less than the 2.6 million-barrel decline analysts had anticipated, it nonetheless reflects ongoing tightness in supply, reinforcing the current price momentum.