The Rohingya crisis is escalating significantly due to fresh influxes across the Myanmar border into Cox's Bazar and a high birth rate within the refugee camps.

According to a report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 150,000 new refugees have entered the country, though authorities fear the actual number could be higher.

Meanwhile, an average of over 100 children are born in the Rohingya camps every day.

In its monthly report released on May 13, the UN refugee agency stated that amid ongoing conflict and violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State, nearly 150,000 Rohingyas crossed the border into Bangladesh over the past 16 months.

The agency noted that 149,769 Rohingyas who entered Bangladesh between December 2024 and March 31, 2026, have been registered. Out of these, 2,780 new arrivals were registered just last month.

Relevant sources indicate that Cox's Bazar district, which has a local population of around 2.8 million, is currently bearing the immense pressure of approximately 1.5 million Rohingyas.

With such a massive population confined to an area of just 24 square kilometers, the Ukhiya-Teknaf region has become one of the most densely populated refugee settlements in the world.

While the local population in Ukhiya and Teknaf is around 500,000, the number of residing Rohingyas is nearly double that figure.

This staggering population pressure is taking a heavy toll on the local economy, social balance, law and order, and overall security.

Furthermore, since the majority of the new arrivals are women and children, dependence on humanitarian aid is steadily rising.

Demographics and Population Surges
According to data available up to February 2026, the number of registered refugees across 34 Rohingya camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf stands at 1,194,864—marking an increase of about 179,000 compared to the previous year.

Official data shows that as of April 30, the UNHCR has registered a total of 1,044,354 displaced Rohingyas since 1990. However, multiple sources claim that approximately 1.5 million Rohingyas are currently staying in Cox's Bazar, both inside and outside the camps.

Among them, nearly 1.3 million reside within the camps, comprising 204,274 families.

A demographic analysis reveals that: Children: 52%, Adults: 44%, Elderly: 4%, Gender Ratio: 49% male and 51% female.

Sources state that an average of 100 children are born in the camps daily, totaling around 30,000 births per year, which complicates the crisis further.

Experts attribute this unusually high birth rate to a lack of education, poor awareness regarding family planning, conservative social structures, and a reluctance to use contraceptives.

Consequently, the government's population control policy—"Not more than two children, one is better"—cannot be effectively implemented there.

The government and humanitarian aid agencies are facing severe strain trying to ensure food, healthcare, security, and sustenance for this rapidly growing population.

Funding Crises and National Security Concerns
The Government of Bangladesh and international humanitarian organizations have jointly sought $934.5 million in aid to implement the 2025-26 Joint Response Plan (JRP).

While the plan aims to meet the needs of nearly 1.5 million people, only 21.7% of the funding had been secured by mid-2025.

Stakeholders warn that if the necessary funding is not secured, healthcare services will be severely disrupted, fuel supplies could dry up, and the education of approximately 230,000 children—including 63,000 newly arrived children—will be put at risk.

At a press conference held at the Cox’s Bazar Press Club on May 11, Rezaul Karim Chowdhury, Co-Chairperson of the Cox's Bazar CSO-NGO Forum (CCNF), emphasized the urgency of the situation.

"To tackle the Rohingya crisis and expedite repatriation, it is imperative to immediately establish a strong and accountable Rohingya Repatriation Commission," he said.

He further noted that weak security arrangements along the Ukhiya-Teknaf border are allowing new Rohingya influxes to happen continuously.

He also warned that constructing permanent infrastructure inside the camps could pose a threat to Bangladesh's national security and sovereignty, potentially delaying the repatriation process in the long run.

Environmental Fallout
According to the Forest Department, the Rohingya crisis has already resulted in the destruction of approximately 8,000 acres of forest land in Cox's Bazar.

Besides disrupting the ecological balance, this deforestation has caused the groundwater level to drop at an alarming rate.

The depletion of forests and hills has also severely restricted the movement of wildlife, including wild elephants.