Global oil prices witnessed a significant decline on Thursday, January 15, 2026, with both major benchmarks dropping by more than 2% in a single session.

This reversal ended a multi-day rally that had been driven by fears of a military conflict in the Middle East.

Here are the primary factors contributing to the price drop:

Easing Tensions with Iran

The most immediate driver was a shift in rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Earlier in the week, prices surged as the US administration threatened military action and 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Tehran following the violent crackdown on protesters in Iran.

However, on Wednesday afternoon, President Trump stated he had received assurances that the killing of protesters had stopped and suggested he might hold off on military strikes for now. This eased "risk premiums" that traders had baked into the price, leading to a swift sell-off.

Surge in US Oil Inventories

Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed a much larger-than-expected build-up of US crude oil and gasoline stocks.

• Actual Build: Crude inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels.
• Analyst Expectation: Many had predicted a decrease of around 1.7 million barrels. When supply in the world's largest consumer increases unexpectedly, it signals weaker demand or oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices.

Resumption of Venezuelan Exports

Following the recent regime change in Caracas and the ouster of Nicolás Maduro, the new transitional government has begun releasing stranded oil.

• The Agreement: Two supertankers carrying roughly 1.8 million barrels each departed Venezuelan waters this week.
• Supply Impact: This marks the beginning of a 50-million-barrel supply deal with the US, reintroducing significant volume to a market that was previously worried about a supply crunch.

Broader 2026 Supply Surplus Forecasts

Long-term forecasts continue to weigh on the market. Both the EIA and Goldman Sachs have projected that global oil production will exceed demand throughout 2026.

Experts predict that Brent crude could average as low as $56 per barrel this year due to rising production in the US and the return of sanctioned oil to the global market.

Price Summary (as of Jan 15, 2026)

Benchmark	Price (per barrel)	Change
Brent Crude	$64.85	▼ 2.5% (-$1.67)
WTI Crude	$60.48	▼ 2.5% (-$1.54)