The documentary 'Melania', centered on the life of the current U.S. First Lady Melania Trump, was met with skepticism, mockery, and predictions of failure before its release.

Many expected the film to tank at the box office. However, upon its debut, the documentary has begun writing a different story, establishing a much stronger position in the North American box office than anticipated.

Initial estimates suggest that following its release on Friday (January 30), the documentary could earn over $8 million in its opening weekend. If this momentum continues, 'Melania' has a real chance of climbing to the third spot on the box office charts—a feat few had imagined.

The film's premiere was held in Washington, D.C., on Friday night, attended by President Donald Trump himself. Exhibitors noted that ticket sales surged significantly following the premiere.

According to box office forecasts, the documentary is competing for the top spots alongside new releases like 'Send Help' and YouTuber Mark Fishbach’s 'Iron Lung', potentially even overtaking Jason Statham’s new action flick, 'Shelter'. Such a result would be a major shock to box office analysts.

Behind the Scenes: A High-Stakes Gamble
Understanding the success of 'Melania' requires looking at its production context. It is directed by the controversial filmmaker Brett Ratner, marking his attempt at a Hollywood comeback.

Amazon MGM Studios reportedly spent $40 million to acquire the rights, making it the most expensive documentary in history.

Amazon didn't stop at the acquisition; they poured an additional $35 million into global marketing and promotion, with $15 million spent in the U.S. alone.

Such a massive promotional budget is rare for documentaries, previously seen only in landmark films like Al Gore’s 'An Inconvenient Truth' and Michael Moore’s 'Fahrenheit 9/11'.

Political Momentum vs. Critical Backlash
Initially, forecasts suggested the film would earn a maximum of $5 million from 1,778 theaters.

Photos of empty theaters and slow ticket sales even trended on social media, leading some theater owners to lower their expectations to $2–$4 million.

However, the tide turned on Friday afternoon. Latest figures from major studios now project the film to hit the $8 to $9 million mark.

The role of political campaigning in this success is undeniable. Donald Trump has personally urged his supporters to watch the documentary.

Additionally, grassroots promotion by conservative groups, particularly in Republican-leaning states, has bolstered viewership.

Despite the commercial success, critics have been unforgiving. Reviews in mainstream media have been overwhelmingly negative.

However, analysts believe that Trump supporters view these reviews as "liberal media bias," which, ironically, seems to be fueling further interest in the film.
Source: The Hollywood Reporter