Dhaka 29 October, 2026

What Would a New Israeli Government Mean for Arab Neighbors?

Cathrin Schaer, Deutsche Welle

Publish : 29 Oct 2026, 09:41 AM
Arab commentators have celebrated the success of Israel's Arab parties as possible 'kingmakers' in the tight election, including the Joint List (pictured here) — even though most Israeli Jewish parties say they won't govern with them. Photo: picture alliance

As Israeli politicians begin to try to build a coalition government, after an election that saw no clear winner, response from politicians in surrounding Arab countries has been muted or non-existent.

This may be because, for the time being anyway, it remains unclear as to whether the new Israeli government will continue with "business as usual" under incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or whether a new government headed by Netanyahu's opponents will take what is expected to be a more moderate domestic course.

Whatever the eventual outcome, the consensus is that there is unlikely to be a huge change in Israel's foreign relations with neighboring countries like Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt, and, further afield, the Gulf states. Nor is it likely to produce very different policies toward Palestinians, which many Arab populations in the region feel strongly about.

Both Netanyahu and his main opponent Gadi Eisenkot "are two sides of the same coin," Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry wrote on X after exit polls seemed to indicate an Eisenkot victory (something that's increasingly contested) and Israeli-Arab parties had displaced Netanyahu's far-right allies. "Arab joy at Netanyahu's near-failure to form the government does not mean that what is to come … differs greatly from his predecessor."

"An Eisenkot government would likely be politically fragile, limiting its room for maneuver," Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a commentary last week. "The biggest differences from the current government would be at home: It would halt the judicial overhaul, open a state commission of inquiry into October 7th and pass a conscription law."

However, Oppenheim explained, "when it comes to foreign policy, there would not be a fundamental transformation. Netanyahu's post-October 7th security doctrine — pre-empting threats, operating far beyond Israel's borders and holding 'buffer zones' in neighboring territories — has been embraced by nearly all Jewish Israeli parties."

Palestinian Territories: No two-state solution
One of the election campaign posters for Netanyahu's Likud party bore a stark message — "The right or Palestine" — the message being that if voters did not choose Netanyahu and his right-wing allies, his opponents would be too accommodating toward Israel's Arab-led political parties and would be open to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

But observers believe that message is exaggerated, and that the two-state solution is already dead.

"Support for Palestinian statehood has collapsed across most of the Jewish political spectrum, and permanent Israeli control over Palestinians has become normalized," Oppenheim pointed out. With the exception of one party, "all mainstream Jewish parties support, or at least acquiesce in, the settlement enterprise in some form and publicly oppose a Palestinian state on the 1967 lines."

In August this year, Eisenkot himself said that, "there is no Palestinian state, and no Palestinian state will be established under the government we form."

An Eisenkot-led government would, however, cooperate with more left-wing Israeli parties, which have previously supported a two-state solution. Any new coalition may also need the backing of Israel's Arab-led parties, who are currently thought to have increased their seats in parliament to around 19.

But as Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the news agency Associated Press this week, "At best, [a new government] would be able to slow down the extremely crazy acceleration that we've seen in the last four years of every aspect of Israel's aggression in the occupied territories and inside Israel itself."

A less extreme government would tone down religious messaging, might be less demanding when it came to conditions on disarming Hamas in Gaza, and could potentially move forward with the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire, agreed to in late 2025, but barely implemented. It might also do more to contain settler violence in the West Bank.

Tents sheltering people displaced by war are pictured between the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Jabalia camp for Palestinian refugees in the northern Gaza Strip.

"That's because [settler extremism] is a phenomenon that doesn't enjoy the support of the majority of Israelis, damages Israel's international reputation, and suppressing it is feasible," Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank, the Middle East Policy Council, explained on social media.

"[A new Israeli government] would keep expanding the settlements and Palestinian statehood would remain taboo," Oppenheim wrote. "Without a diplomatic track with the Palestinians, further flare-ups of violence in the West Bank and Gaza are inevitable, destabilizing the region — and normalization with Saudi Arabia will remain off the table."

Saudi Arabia: Could anti-Netanyahu bloc bring normalization?
After the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas and Israel's ensuing military campaign, which has resulted in at least 70,000 Palestinians killed and Gaza devastated, Saudi Arabia's conditions for normalization with Israel have hardened.

The country, hugely influential in the Muslim world, has put out several statements saying there could be no path to normalizing relations with Israel without some progress on Palestinian statehood.

Last week, at a meeting of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, the Saudis co-signed a communique in which the four countries said Israel was "the fundamental source of instability in the region and beyond."

This screen grab taken from CCTV footage played on a screen during a press conference by the Saudi-led coalition in Riyadh

But there is some cooperation between the two countries behind the scenes. Analysts say that if a government less hardline than Netanyahu's gets into power in Israel, it will be easier for countries like Saudi Arabia — but also the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt, which all have varying levels of backchannel cooperation and formal or informal contact with Israel — to admit to this kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

Syria: Security agreement revived?
According to a study published last week by Syrian think tank, Etana, Israeli troops have come as far as 1,160 kilometers (721 miles) into Syria from the two countries' disputed border, occupied Syrian land as far as 400 kilometers from it and carried out 1,996 ground operations in southwest Syria between January and September this year.

Before elections this week there was no chance of any kind of withdrawal from Syria because it would have been seen as "defeat," Ksenia Svetlova, an associate fellow at Chatham House and a former member of the Israeli parliament, told online publication Syria in Transition this month. But if the anti-Netanyahu bloc gets into power, that could change, she suggested.

"A security agreement with Syria will become more probable, as many potential stakeholders [in a new, more centrist Israeli government] have spoken favorably about it in the past," noted Svetlova, who is also director of the Tel Aviv-based Regional Organization for Peace, Economics and Security, which works on Israeli-Palestinian-Arab partnerships. "However I do expect that it will take time as this government will be constantly attacked by the extreme right."

For months this year, Israel and Syrian diplomats negotiated a security agreement under the US' stewardship. But it came to nothing in late 2026 after Israel apparently refused to withdraw back to boundary lines established under a 1974 disengagement agreement.

Lebanon: More diplomacy wanted
Observers and media commentators in Lebanon say the Lebanese government would prefer to have Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu bloc in power.

Lebanon and Israel are continuing to negotiate an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, where the Israelis claim they have established a "buffer zone" to facilitate their fight against Lebanese militia group, Hezbollah. The Lebanese argue the Israelis have in fact invaded their country.

And when it comes to negotiations around disarming Hezbollah and withdrawing Israeli troops, there's a perception in Lebanese political circles that Eisenkot would be easier to deal with than Netanyahu and his extremist allies.

This is despite the fact that Eisenkot is widely seen as the inventor of the so-called "Dahiyeh Doctrine," a military strategy that calls for asymmetric warfare in areas like Beirut's southern suburbs, where Hezbollah is based, to pressure both militants and their civilian support base.

A similar strategy is thought to be being implemented in southern Lebanon now, where whole villages continue to be razed by the Israeli military, even as active fighting has subsided.

Lebanese commentators are also optimistic that Eisenkot, former commander of the Israeli army, would have something in common with their own president, Joseph Aoun, who used to head Lebanon's armed forces.

"When Netanyahu was ousted from power between 2021 and 2022 by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid [now members of the camp led by Eisenkot], we were able to negotiate and conclude the maritime agreement," a Lebanese official told Lebanese daily, L'Orient Today, referring to a 2022 deal to share offshore territory.

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French Students Decry Failures of Education System
For weeks, schoolchildren in France have been protesting the failing education system. Compared to many other countries, France invests heavily in education but critics say that the funds are not distributed fairly. Rats in the toilets, leaking roofs, broken heating systems: Cellphone videos filmed by French schoolchildren and circulating on social media bear witness to the dilapidated infrastructure in many educational institutions across France. At the Lycee Paul Eluard in the Parisian suburb of Saint-Denis, a center of the current protests, young people have reported that there are vermin in the building, and say burst pipes are a regular occurrence. In nearby Pantin, pupils complained that windows couldn't be opened, even when temperatures soared to 40 degrees Celsius (over 104 degrees Fahrenheit) in summer. Pupils also complain of overcrowded classrooms and frequently cancelled lessons. 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French Education Minister Edouard Geffray  announced that software would be used to identify schools that are in a particularly difficult situation. These announcements are the government's first concrete response to the demands of the students, who have been demonstrating for almost two weeks now, calling for better facilities in secondary schools, more supply teachers and greater investment in the education system generally. Increasing deficiencies The latest scores for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) program for international student assessment (Pisa), which were published in September, illustrate the scale of the problems in the education system. According to the results, more than one in three 15-year-olds in France no longer achieve a basic level of competence in mathematics, for example. Macron's reform of the upper secondary education system has also been criticized. 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With the French presidential election just six months away, the protests over the crisis in education are evolving into a power struggle.
French Students Decry Failures of Education System
Is Bangladesh Backtracking on Post-Hasina Reforms?
Two years after a student-led uprising toppled PM Sheikh Hasina, critics say Bangladesh's reform momentum is fading as political divisions deepen and key changes stall. Just two years after a student-led uprising ended the nearly 16-year rule of Sheikh Hasina, many fear Bangladesh is slipping backward. With Hasina, now in exile in India, planning a return in December and critics accusing the current government of failing to deliver on its promises, the country's political future is once again in doubt. "At the end of the day, we did not see the elimination of discrimination, the creation of an inclusive society, or the new political order that was promised," Mohammad Tanzimuddin Khan, a professor of international relations at Dhaka University, told DW. "It seems we are forgetting the very reasons behind the uprising of last July, especially those who came to power." The protest movement began in 2018 over a controversial quota system for government jobs. 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Critics say the BNP has since failed to implement several pre-election reform commitments. Ali Riaz, who led the interim government's Constitution Reform Commission, said there had been "time-bound commitments," including the creation of a constitutional reform council and steps to implement reforms within 180 working days. "That was not done," he said, adding that it was "deeply regrettable." Is Bangladesh moving in the wrong direction?The interim government introduced 133 ordinances as part of its reform agenda, but after the BNP came to power, it refused to adopt 20 of them — including measures concerning the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), the Anti-Corruption Commission, enforced disappearances and referendums. The BNP argues that constitutional and institutional changes should be enacted through proper legislative procedures in Parliament. 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A commission set up by the interim administration reported that, of 1,913 complaints received, 1,569 were verified and classified as cases of enforced disappearance. Among those who later returned alive, about 75% were linked to the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami and 22% to the BNP, the main political rivals of Hasina's Awami League party. In an effort to prevent future abuses, Bangladesh signed the UN Convention against Enforced Disappearances in August 2024. The interim government later introduced an ordinance to criminalize the practice. "We wanted to ensure permanence by incorporating this into the constitution and making the necessary legal changes," Asif Mahmud said. However, rather than seeking parliamentary approval for the ordinance, the BNP-led government published a new draft bill in July 2026. Critics say the proposal weakened safeguards by assigning investigations into alleged enforced disappearances from the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to the police. Human Rights Watch (HRW)  warned that "allowing the police to investigate enforced disappearances will not ensure accountability and will not create the deterrence necessary to bring this practice to an end." HRW also cited the April 21 alleged abduction of Miraj Sheikh by men allegedly posing as Coast Guard personnel as the first reported enforced disappearance since the 2024 uprising. More than three months later, his whereabouts remain unknown. "We see signs of a return to those old times," Khan said. "Naturally, this is alarming." The 'Hasina Factor' persists in Bangladesh politicsThe Awami League and its affiliated organizations remain banned under an executive order and were excluded from February's elections. Hasina, meanwhile, has been sentenced to death by Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal over crimes against humanity committed during the 2024 uprising and remains self-exiled in India. 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Bangladesh's attorney general has declared that Hasina would be arrested immediately upon her return and stand trial. Ali Riaz, however, warned that Hasina's return could create new challenges. "During the trial proceedings, she and her followers might attempt to destabilize the law-and-order situation in Bangladesh for political gain," he said, calling on the government to guard against any resulting instability. Others, however, see a different possibility. Khan said the tensions surrounding Hasina's return could instead help "forge broader political unity in a deeply divided country."
Is Bangladesh Backtracking on Post-Hasina Reforms?
Reclaiming Our Legacy in a Fractured World
A land etched by the rivers of time, Bangladesh stands today at a moral crossroads. Our history books, our folk songs, and our national identity are built upon a profound legacy of communal harmony, resilience, and collective compassion.  This is the soil that gave birth to the spirit of Ekattor, where religion, ethnicity, and creed blurred into a singular, unstoppable force for liberation.  This is the culture that venerates Lalon Shah, whose verses transcended the artificial walls of faith, asking the most human of questions: “What form does the soul take?” Yet, scrolling through today’s news feeds or hearing whispers in our neighborhoods, we are confronted with a jarring, painful contradiction.  A rising tide of barbaric incidents—communal violence, brutal attacks on minorities, venomous speech, and acts of shocking cruelty—threatens to tear the very fabric of our society. How did we, a nation born from a symphony of unity, find ourselves listening to this dissonant cacophony of hate? In the months following the political upheaval of August 2024, Bangladesh witnessed a disturbing surge in violence against religious minorities. According to the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC), more than 2,010 incidents of communal violence occurred between August 4 and 20, 2024, alone—including attacks on 69 temples, damage to over 1,000 homes and businesses, and the loss of innocent lives.  In the first half of 2025, the Council documented another 258 incidents, including 27 murders, 59 attacks on places of worship, and 20 cases of violence against women. Odhikar and Human Rights Watch have also recorded the continued targeting of Hindu, Buddhist, Christian and Ahmadiyya communities, as well as indigenous groups. These numbers are not abstract statistics. They represent shattered homes, desecrated temples, and families living in fear. One harrowing case that shocked the nation was the lynching of 25-year-old Hindu garment worker Dipu Chandra Das in December 2025—beaten, hanged, and set ablaze over an alleged blasphemy accusation.  Such acts of barbarity stand in stark, heartbreaking contrast to the compassionate Bangladesh we know ourselves to be. The gap between our historical self-image and our present reality is not just alarming; it is an existential warning. We must confront this contradiction not with denial, but with fierce, collective introspection. The barbarity we witness is not an alien invasion; it is a corrosion from within.  Read More The Turbulent History of US-Cuban Relations It is the fruit of cultivated prejudice, of political and social narratives that have, for years, quietly exchanged our rich, complex identity for a narrow, monolithic one. It is the result of an empathy deficit, where the “other”—be they of a different faith, ethnic community, or social standing—is slowly dehumanized, turned from a neighbor into a caricature, and then into a target. This dehumanization is the bedrock of all barbarism. When we strip a person of their individual story, their dreams, and their capacity for pain and joy—reducing them to a mere label of “they” or “them”—we grant ourselves unconscious permission for cruelty.  The assailant does not see a humble shopkeeper, a devout worshipper, or a diligent student; he sees only an abstract symbol he has been taught to fear or despise. This is where our collective failure lies. We have allowed the space for shared stories to shrink.  We have forgotten the profound Bengali tradition of ‘mohamaya’—the divine illusion that separates us—and instead of seeking the underlying unity, we have begun to believe the illusion is real. Therefore, the antidote to this barbarity is not merely stricter laws or louder condemnation, though both are necessary. The fundamental antidote is a conscious, deliberate, and massive reawakening of compassion—not as a soft, passive feeling, but as the most robust and revolutionary human quality.  Compassion is not mere pity; it is the courageous recognition of oneself in another. It is the active force that propelled hundreds of Muslim villagers to form protective rings around Hindu puja mandaps in times of tension and Hindu families to shelter their Muslim neighbors.  These are not fairy tales; they are living, breathing examples from our own recent past, proving that our better nature is not extinct, only dormant. Reclaiming this compassion requires a personal and public revolution. First, we must practice Radical Empathy in our daily orbits. This starts in our homes—in what we tolerate and what we challenge. It means correcting a prejudiced joke at the family meal, intervening when a colleague is unfairly maligned for their background, and choosing kindness in traffic and in queues.  It means visiting the neighborhoods and houses of worship of communities different from our own, not as tourists, but as learners and guests.  We must consciously consume media that humanizes rather than demonizes, sharing stories of inter-community friendship, collaborative business ventures, and the countless mixed neighborhoods where life continues in peaceful synergy. These narratives are our true national news. Second, we must demand and cultivate responsible speech from our leaders, influencers, and ourselves. Words are the architects of reality. The venom that flows from political platforms, social media pulpits, and even some pulpits of faith is not “just talk”; it is the kindling for the fire of violence.  Collected Photo We must collectively shift our moral compass to honor those who build bridges with their words and withdraw our attention—and our votes—from those who trade in division. Silence in the face of hateful rhetoric is complicity. Our public discourse must be re-sanctified by the values of liberty and equality that our forebears died for. Finally, we must actively rebuild our civic friendship. The strength of Bangladesh has always been in its samajik bonds—the community organizations, cultural groups, and relief committees that form spontaneously in crises.  We need to revive and reinvent these spaces as integrated, inclusive forums. Let our literary festivals, football tournaments, flood relief efforts, and cultural jatra be deliberately pluralistic. Let our children study together, play together, and work on community projects together, so their friendships become an unbreakable barrier against future bigotry. Our harmony was never the absence of diversity, but its celebration. Bangladesh is not, and must never become, a nation defined by the barbarism of a few. It is defined by the quiet compassion of millions—the farmer who shares his harvest, the rickshaw puller who returns a lost wallet, and the strangers who pull together during a cyclone. This is our true character. This is the soul of this land, waiting to be reaffirmed. The rivers of Bangladesh do not compete—they merge before flowing into the sea. Let our diverse streams of humanity do the same. Let compassion become the mighty current that sweeps away the debris of hatred. In a world full of conflict, only humanity can stop this.  Our history commands it. Our future depends on it. Every day, in every conversation and every act, let us choose to be healers, not hurters. Let us rebuild, together, the Bangladesh that was always meant to be—a sanctuary for the human heart.
Reclaiming Our Legacy in a Fractured World