Days before the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon on November 27, 2024, tensions are once again threatening to escalate.

This week, Israel launched numerous airstrikes on southern Lebanon, killing at least a dozen people, according to Lebanese health officials.

Israel's military said on X that it had targeted Hezbollah members and infrastructure, including weapons storage facilities, as well as a Hamas training compound, all linked to Iran-backed groups.

A local resident, speaking to DW on the condition of anonymity, denied the Israeli army's claim that the area housed weapons or explosives. "The area is populated by civilians," the resident said, and "the sports ground was reduced to rubble, and there [were] many victims."

Another local confirmed that the location was a popular sports venue. "We are always there," the resident said. "The claims that Hamas is present are completely false."

Hezbollah's military wing, which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US and Germany, has rejected Israel's allegations.

"One year on, the ceasefire is essentially in shambles," Sami Halabi, director of policy at the Beirut-based think tank The Alternative Policy Institute, told DW.

"It is held together as all parties to the conflict are using it for their own purposes," he said, adding that, in his view, the coming year will be decisive. "Either Lebanon addresses the core issues, or the ceasefire collapses and the country slides back into open conflict."

What led to the ceasefire?

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah began targeting northern Israel in support of Hamas, which had carried out a terror attack on Israel the day before, sparking two years of conflict in Gaza.

Over the next 12 months of skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, around 60,000 Israelis and some 100,000 Lebanese were forced to evacuate border areas. In Israel, most have yet to return due to ongoing security concerns, while in Lebanon, widespread destruction and continued airstrikes make returning nearly impossible for many.

On the night of September 30 2024, the conflict escalated into two months of war in Lebanon, including a ground invasion by Israel. By January 9, 2025, more than 4,200 people had been killed, including many Lebanese civilians, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs at approximately $11 billion (€9.5 billion).

Over the course of the war, Israel weakened Hezbollah significantly, killing numerous leaders and reducing much of the group's military capabilities.

However, Hezbollah remains a key member of Iran's "axis of resistance" — a coalition of groups and states that call for the destruction of the US and Israel — and continues to advocate for Israel's extinction. Israel accuses Hezbollah of regrouping and rebuilding its arms stockpile.

What did the ceasefire specify?

The peace deal, brokered by France and the US on November 27, 2024, mirrors key provisions of UN Resolution 1701 from 2006.

It calls for Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory, though Israeli troops remain stationed at five locations within Lebanon.

This week, Beirut filed an urgent complaint with the UN Security Council over the construction of a newly erected wall. According to the UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL), the wall overlaps with the Blue Line, which demarcates the border between Israel and Lebanon, and restricts Lebanese access to more than 4,000 square meters (43, 000 square feet) of land.

In response, Israel denied that the wall, whose construction began in 2022, encroaches on Lebanese territory.

The ceasefire also calls for the deployment of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, Lebanon's largest river. Hezbollah claims it has withdrawn its military presence beyond that line.

Additionally, the ceasefire also specified that Hezbollah must disarm. However, Hezbollah officials argue that this applies only to areas south of Litani River, not across Lebanon. The militia further rejects disarmament as long as Israeli troops remain in Lebanon.

In August, Hezbollah even threatened to start a civil war if the Lebanese government pushed for its disarmament.

The peace plan also called for Lebanon's military to deploy troops alongside the multinational UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.

On Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that plans to demilitarize the south by the end of the month are "on track."

"We need to recruit more people into the army, and we need to better equip the army, and we need to be able to raise the salaries of the army," Salam told the news broadcaster Bloomberg.

However, political analyst Sami Halabi argues that core problems remain unresolved. "The ceasefire agreement was drafted in the same way the [US] Trump administration approached its 'peace deals' across multiple conflicts: a list of bullet points posing as a framework," he said.

"While it can be good to have something to revolve around, the issue is that after a year of 'revolving,' the situation in Lebanon is nowhere closer to a resolution," Halabi told DW.

In his view, the ceasefire can only lead to stability, or durable peace, if it is part of a broader process where the Lebanese state gradually assumes control of national defense and is equipped to maintain deterrence.

"This could be through stronger military capabilities, such as in Egypt, or through a broader political deal," he said, adding that "one or both could work, but the status quo doesn't."

Could direct negotiations mark a turnaround?

The ceasefire also brought an end of Lebanon's years-long political vacuum with the election of President Joseph Aoun in January 2025.

Earlier this month, Aoun stated that Lebanon has "no choice" but to engage in negotiations. "The language of negotiation is more important than the language of war," he told reporters, adding "we have seen what [war] did to us."

Also, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam echoed Aoun's sentiment, expressing hope that Lebanon could secure US support for a diplomatic solution.

So far, direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have been out of the question — except for one brief instance in 1983 — due to the lack of diplomatic relations. In fact, the two countries have technically been in a state of war since 1948.

"Lebanon is under mounting pressure — by Israel militarily and the US diplomatically — to accept compromises it previously considered objectionable," Lina Khatib, associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House wrote earlier this month in an opinion piece.

This prospect threatens Hezbollah, she added, noting that it could "pave the way for a future peace deal with Israel, which would remove Hezbollah's self-proclaimed raison d'etre."