The global fertilizer supply chain has ground to a halt following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Israeli-US aggression against Iran.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, fertilizer shipments have effectively ceased, sparking fears of a catastrophic decline in global crop yields.

According to a report by Al Jazeera on Saturday (May 2), analysts warn that the closure of this critical waterway could trigger a 30% drop in yields due to skyrocketing fertilizer costs.

This supply shock is expected to have a direct and immediate impact on global food prices.

Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), shared these grim projections with Al Jazeera, noting that the situation is deteriorating rapidly.

"We are racing against the planting and harvesting calendars," Torero stated, highlighting that the sowing season has already passed in several Asian nations.

Shift in Global Agriculture
The FAO chief indicated that major exporters, such as the United States and Brazil, may pivot toward crops that naturally retain nitrogen in the soil—shifting away from wheat and corn in favor of soybeans.

Furthermore, rising crude oil prices are incentivizing some farmers to prioritize biofuel production. Torero observed that prices for wheat and soybeans are already climbing.

"The situation will continue to evolve throughout the second half of the year, and we anticipate a massive surge in commodity prices by next year," he added.

A Compounding Crisis
The crisis is not limited to raw materials; the economist emphasized that food inflation is being driven by both supply shortages and soaring energy costs.

"We have been consistently warning that this crisis intensifies with every passing hour," the FAO head cautioned. "As the clock ticks and the days go by, the situation only worsens."