Leaders of the BRICS nations are gathering in New Delhi this weekend for a high-stakes summit, where mounting geopolitical friction stemming from ongoing hostilities in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside persistent strategic friction between Washington and Beijing, will rigorously test the coalition's collective decision-making capacity.

As the designated host nation, India faces the intricate diplomatic challenge of balancing its strategic partnerships with China and the Russian Federation against its steadily expanding alliances with the United States and other Western democracies.

Among the prominent heads of state scheduled to participate are Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Formed as an association of major emerging economies and developing nations, BRICS derives its name from an acronym representing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, having subsequently broadened its official roster to 11 member states that collectively account for roughly half of the global population alongside substantial portions of worldwide energy reserves, natural resources, and aggregate economic output.

Analysts observe that this rapid geographic and demographic expansion has simultaneously laid bare internal fractures, as member nations frequently pursue conflicting political, economic, and foreign policy objectives in their quest for greater global leverage.

The overlapping crises in Ukraine and Iran are poised to throw these underlying fissures into sharp relief, given that Iran operates as an expanded bloc member while Russia remains a core pillar, China maintains deep bilateral ties with both regimes, and India navigates a diplomatic tightrope by sustaining simultaneous relations with Moscow, Tehran, Washington, and European capitals.

This broad diversity makes it exceptionally difficult for the alliance to forge a unified stance on major international conflicts, particularly given the presence of rival regional ambitions among participants such as India and China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Egypt and Ethiopia, alongside various other actors from the Global South.

“The Global South is not a homogeneous entity,” remarked Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst associated with the International Crisis Group. “Hence, the grouping will find it hard to manage and mediate in these conflicts.”

The protracted conflict in Ukraine has already demonstrated the constraints governing New Delhi's foreign policy maneuvering, as the South Asian power maintains extensive energy and defense ties with Moscow while concurrently fortifying its security architecture with Washington, consistently advocating for diplomatic dialogue rather than choosing sides.

A parallel dilemma is presented by the friction involving Iran and the United States, as member states exhibit widely divergent relationships with Washington and competing stakes in the Middle Eastern theatre, complicating any prospects for a cohesive organizational response, even as Beijing and Moscow have offered diplomatic backing to Tehran in multilateral forums, India has pursued a cautious path, and Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE manage their own bilateral tensions with the Iranian government.

For New Delhi, the summit presents a strategic pathway to manage its complex relationship with Beijing, noting that bilateral ties have experienced a fragile stabilization following border standoffs in 2020, though China remains India's principal strategic competitor.

The arrival of Chinese President Xi Jinping in New Delhi marks his first official visit in seven years, presenting an opportunity to cement recent diplomatic thaws, despite prevailing stagnation in broader commercial and trade exchanges.

“The upcoming summit offers India an opportunity to engage with China, make progress on outstanding bilateral issues,” Donthi stated.

Simultaneously, India maintains a steadfast national interest in preventing the coalition from hardening into an explicitly anti-Western axis, leveraging its growing partnerships with Israel, Japan, Australia, the United States, and European nations while preserving its historical ties with Moscow.

“India will project its strategic autonomy by being part of a non-West grouping but also finds it useful to engage with China, its primary strategic rival,” Donthi noted.

A central economic priority for the bloc involves lessening international reliance on the U.S. dollar, with members actively exploring mechanisms to expand intra-group trade denominated in local currencies and developing alternative settlement infrastructures to bypass Western financial dominance.

This objective has gained considerable momentum as nations like Russia encounter sweeping Western economic penalties, though replacing the greenback remains a formidable obstacle given its deep entrenchment in global trade and finance, compounded by the disparate financial systems, economic priorities, and currencies of BRICS members.

Mahesh Sachdev, a retired Indian diplomat, emphasized that the ultimate objective should avoid direct confrontation with the dominant currency, noting instead that participating countries primarily seek to insulate themselves from financial architectures that can be weaponized for political coercion.

“It’s a challenge, but we’re not talking about frontal confrontations. It’s not a binary situation,” he explained.

The ultimate geopolitical weight and influence of the expanded coalition will rely heavily on whether member states can translate broad declarations into concrete, practical initiatives.

While the bloc has repeatedly issued joint calls for comprehensive restructuring of international financial governance, enhanced representation for developing economies, and viable alternatives to Western-led institutions, members frequently divide over the execution of these goals.

According to Sachdev, the alliance requires a “more cohesive attitude and better harmony” among its constituent governments.

“If it remains just a periodic talking shop and photo ops,” he warned, “then its relevance erodes.”

Donthi suggested that tangible success may instead be measured through incremental milestones, including the preservation of unity within the expanded membership, constructive management of competition with Beijing, and the deepening of financial and trade integration, thereby offering developing nations an alternative diplomatic platform without forcing them into rigid binary choices between Western and non-Western camps.

“BRICS allows for incremental geopolitical gains, if not outright wins,” Donthi concluded.

Source: AP