
According to a monthly report released Friday, the German central bank expects a modest economic turnaround in 2026, projecting a 0.6% rise in real GDP.
This figure represents a slight downward adjustment from the Bundesbank’s June estimate of 0.7%.
The revision comes as multiple economic institutions lower their expectations for Germany’s recovery after a prolonged period of sluggish growth.
Taking into account the additional working days in the coming year, the Bundesbank’s projection is somewhat more optimistic. The current year is likely to deliver mini-growth of 0.2%, the central bank said.
"The German economy will make headway again in 2026: While progress will be subdued initially, it will then slowly pick up," Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in presenting the Bundesbank’s new Forecast for Germany.
"Starting in the second quarter of 2026, economic growth will strengthen markedly, driven mainly by government spending and a resurgence in exports," he added.
For the first quarter of 2026, the Bundesbank anticipates a modest 0.1% increase over the previous quarter, mirroring the growth rate expected in the final quarter of 2025.
The central bank predicts that the economic upswing will gain significant momentum by 2027, with growth reaching 1.3%. This updated figure is 0.1 percentage points higher than the estimate provided in June.
Looking further ahead to 2028, Europe’s largest economy is forecast to expand by 1.1%. According to the Bundesbank, this momentum will increasingly be driven by multibillion-euro government expenditures on infrastructure—such as road and rail networks—as well as significant investments in national defense.
Exports, recently held back by higher US tariffs, are expected to return to an expansion path over the course of the coming year, the bank said. That should spur corporate investment.
The Bundesbank also sees upside potential in private consumption, an important pillar of domestic activity.
"Strongly rising wages and a gradual improvement in the labour market will underpin real income and thus consumption," the bank wrote in its report.
However, the inflation rate will decline more slowly than expected because of wage growth and a less pronounced fall in energy prices, the Bundesbank said.
After 2.3% inflation this year, it expects a rate of 2.2% for 2026 calculated by the European method (HICP), 2.1% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028, meaning the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target will be roughly reached. Higher inflation rates erode people’s purchasing power.
Source: German News Service




