Public health experts and economists are sounding the alarm over the newly proposed cigarette pricing structure for the fiscal year 2026–27, warning that it severely undermines national public health goals and fails to curb smoking rates.
While the draft budget—the first under the current government—introduces steeper price hikes for premium cigarettes, it leaves low-tier brands virtually untouched.
Because low-tier products command nearly 90 percent of the local market, analysts argue the lopsided framework will fail to encourage quitting, instead accelerating a troubling trend known as "downtrading."
Widening the Gap, Fueling 'Downtrading'
Under the proposed four-tier framework, the minimum price for low-tier cigarettes will rise by a negligible BDT 2 per pack of 10 sticks—breaking down to an increase of just 20 paisa per stick. In stark contrast, premium and high-tier brands face much heavier hikes.
Specifically, the Finance Minister has proposed the following adjustments per 10 sticks:
Low Tier: Increases to BDT 62 (Up from BDT 60)
Medium Tier: Increases to BDT 92 (Up from BDT 80)
High Tier: Increases to BDT 160 (Up from BDT 140)
Premium Tier: Increases to BDT 210 (Up from BDT 185)
Economists warn that this structure vastly widens the price gap between premium and budget options. Rather than motivating smokers to kick the habit, the disparity creates a financial safety net, allowing budget-conscious consumers to simply migrate to cheaper brands to fit their finances.
Broken Promises on Public Health
The proposed pricing directly contradicts repeated pledges made by the administration, according to policy analysts. Top policymakers have frequently reaffirmed commitments to introducing strict legal and fiscal measures to reduce tobacco-induced non-communicable diseases and achieve a "tobacco-free nation."
Experts caution that by keeping lower-tier cigarettes highly affordable and accessible, smoking prevalence may spike, with low-income populations bearing the brunt of the adverse health impacts.
Calls for Overhauling the Tax Structure
This latest critique echoes long-standing demands from anti-tobacco organizations urging the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to overhaul the country’s tobacco tax system. For years, advocates have pushed to scrap the current multi-tiered ad valorem system (where tax is levied as a percentage of the retail price) in favor of a uniform specific excise tax.
Independent sector assessments reveal that downtrading has been a visible, fifteen-year trend in Bangladesh because taxes on premium cigarettes have historically outpaced adjustments on cheaper brands.
Public health advocates emphasize that to meaningfully reduce tobacco consumption, the government cannot rely solely on penalizing premium consumers. Instead, Bangladesh requires a cohesive tax restructuring that minimizes the price gaps between tiers. Experts are urging policymakers to revisit and significantly raise the pricing of lower-tier cigarettes before the budget is ratified to safeguard both public health and sustainable government revenue.




