Bangladesh has experienced five powerful cyclones in May alone over the past five years, out of a total of seven strong cyclones. Cyclone Remal ravaged coastal regions on May 27 last year.
Cyclones Amphan and Mocha also struck in May. This year appears to be no different, with concerns now arising about the potential formation of two cyclones within the same week.
In a Facebook post on Monday morning (May 19th), Mostafa Kamal Palash, a weather and climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, stated that there is a strong possibility of a cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal.
This cyclone could make landfall between May 27th and 30th, anywhere between the coast of Odisha in India and the Rakhine coast of Myanmar.
He further wrote that there is also a high probability of another cyclone forming in the Arabian Sea during the same week. The Arabian Sea cyclone is likely to develop first, followed by the one in the Bay of Bengal.
According to the naming list prepared by the regional office of the World Meteorological Organization, the next two names are 'Shakti' and 'Mantha'.
Consequently, the first cyclone of the 2025 cyclone season to form in either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal will be named Shakti, and the second will be named Mantha.
Mostafa Kamal Palash also noted that the intensity and landfall location of the potential Bay of Bengal cyclone will depend on the cyclone that is expected to form in the Arabian Sea.
If the Arabian Sea cyclone dissipates a day or two before the Bay of Bengal cyclone develops, there is a higher chance of the latter being more powerful.
According to the latest forecasts from weather prediction models, the Bay of Bengal cyclone is most likely to make landfall between May 29th and 30th. However, it is still too early to say anything definitively.
