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COP29: Will India Finally Address Climate Migration?
Midhat Fatimah
09 Nov 2024, 09:13
Photo: Sri Loganathan/ZUMA Press Wire/picture alliance
India is witnessing a myriad of issues caused by extreme weather events such as sweltering heat, droughts and massive flooding. Among them, climate-induced migration holds particular significance for the South Asian nation, where a surprising number of people are already facing the threat of displacement with the figures expected to rise exponentially.
In 2020, an estimated 14 million people in India were forced to migrate as a consequence of extreme weather events, according to figures from the country's Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC). IDMC's 2022 report states that India is seeing the third highest number of internal displacements due to disasters, after China and the Philippines.
The number of climate-related migrants in India is projected to reach 45 million by 2050, according to Climate Action Network South Asia. Despite the severe risks of climate migration, India still lacks a policy framework.
"Many human mobilities are taking place that are, in part, due to climate change but are not identified as climate-linked," explained Mathew A. Varghese, professor at the Center for Urban Studies at Mahatma Gandhi University in the state of Kerala.
Climate migration policy in India
Despite being the seventh most climate-vulnerable country in the world, facing the mammoth challenge of climate migration, India does not have concrete policies in place to address the issue.
In 2008, India launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which laid down a broad framework to address what India could do to tackle climate change in different sectors.
However, "there's a significant policy vacuum in terms of how the framework aims to manage displacement," Saransh Bajpai, associate program director for climate, economics and finance at India's World Resources Institute, told DW.
"The National Disaster Management Authority, while it acknowledges displacement and mobility, fails to establish concrete financial mechanisms for addressing this [climate migration] challenge. So, there's definitely a policy vacuum."
In 2022, for the first time, Pradyut Bordoloi, a member of Parliament from the climate vulnerable eastern state of Assam, introduced the Climate Migrants (Protection and Rehabilitation) Bill as a private member's bill.
Bordoloi told DW the bill was motivated by the suffering of people in the Brahmaputra River islands who, after losing their homes and livelihoods each rainy season, are forced to relocate. He said that they become vulnerable to discrimination and persecution.
While introducing the bill, Bordoloi had said that the proposed legislation seeks to "establish an appropriate policy framework for the protection and rehabilitation of internally displaced climate migrants and for all matters connected therewith."
The bill also sought to establish a climate migration fund. However it was not passed. "Local governments or state governments could play a partisan role which is why there should be a federal authority looking after the needs of climate migrants," Bordoloi told DW, adding that, "this authority should have budgetary allocation from the government of India."
COP29: An opportunity for India?
India lacks a policy on climate migration despite being a signatory to the UN's Sendai Framework, which recognizes disaster displacement as a significant issue and major driver of disaster risk.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also recognizes the subject of migration, displacement, and planned relocation, as a crucial climate risk management issue.
COP28, last year's UN climate conference in Dubai, saw the first-ever global stocktake where human mobility was recognized as a major impact of climate change affecting people and communities. The Loss and Damage Fund, operationalized for the first time during the talks, also included displacement and displaced persons in its scope.
India aims to take the lead in building a case for better climate finance opportunities for developing countries at next week's UN climate summit, COP29, which will take place in Azerbaijan's capital city, Baku.
Despite its participation and active role in global forums discussing climate change, India fails to account for internal climate migration which has an enormous economic impact.
"India places itself very firmly in the global negotiation processes and has been very vocal as far as adaptation and loss and damage is concerned," said Bajpa, who noted that India could benefit from philanthropic financing for climate change.
"India should provide something innovative to ... engage with these philanthropies and pull in a no-strings-attached grant contribution," he said, adding that, "then the migration policy should enable creating a trusted financial mechanism in India."
(From Deutsche Welle)
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Held at Dragonpoint: Impeding Democracy in BRI Nations
The Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”) was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping of China and since then has become one of the largest infrastructure projects in the word. The BRI was first introduced in Kazakhstan with the land-oriented Silk Road Economic Belt and in Indonesia with the sea-oriented Maritime Silk Road. Over the years China has expanded its infrastructural development strategy and as of July 2023, official Chinese announcements state that 149 countries (including China) have joined the BRI. 44 countries from Sub-Saharan Africa are a part of BRI and form the highest number of participating members from a region.
While the initial purpose of BRI was to boost economic development and increase regional connectivity, many scholars believe BRI to be a key element China’s multi-faceted geostrategic policy. The BRI’s geographic scope includes nations already struggling to curtail public sector corruption and to develop resilient democratic institutions. An aggressive Chinese debt-funding patronage has resulted in impeding democracy in BRI countries and has reinforced autocracies.
The Democracy Index 2023, which measures the democracy level in a country based on the electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture and civil liberties, highlighted worsening democracies in several countries. While it does not analyse the impact of BRI on regressive democracies, it reports that more than 40% of the 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and significant portions of the Middle East and North Africa noted a decline in their democracy scores which coincide with ongoing BRI projects in these regions. Similarly, Pakistan, which has been actively developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with Beijing, has also experienced the biggest regression in Asia, downgrading itself from a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime”.
Investments via BRI
Through the BRI Projects, China aims to propel the ‘Chinese Dream’ of pushing “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, by increasing market access for Chinese companies, gaining control of strategically significant infrastructure and increasing its overall political influence around the world. Chinese state-owned enterprises have been reported to extend loans to fund BRI projects in participating nations rather than developmental grants, whereby failure to repay has entrapped the receiving country in costly debt-traps. Theorists believe that these grants and any Chinese BRI-related FDI volumes are positively related to a host country’s institutional fragility and low income as compared to general Chinese investments that are mostly prevalent in high-income countries.
BRI policies also tend to facilitate FDI in countries with weaker rule of law and less government accountability. In 2018, Djibouti, Montenegro, Pakistan and several other states were at risk of debt distress from BRI commitments. Other key examples like the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, apprehension over Iran and China’s strategic and economic partnership and a Chinese-built highway in Montenegro that significantly increased the country’s national debt highlight China’s intrusion into national affairs of countries.
These intrusions essentially allow Beijing to leverage and force economic and political concessions to strengthen its geostrategic stand. Host governments often face pressure to reduce welfare spending, lower wages, and weaken labour standards as a consequence. As they compete for foreign investment, policies are shaped to attract Chinese investors and corporations, prioritizing their interests over accountability to the electorate.
As an example, in July 2016, Hungary and Greece blocked any direct reference to China in an EU statement about the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that struck down its legal claims in the South China Sea. Additionally, in March 2017, Hungary too refused to sign a joint letter denouncing the reported torture of detained lawyers in China, breaking the EU’s cohesive response. Some countries in Asia and Africa are also eager to adopt Chinese support to contribute to global power shifts by weakening the former colonial powers of the West.
China-linked Human Rights abuses in BRI countries
Several journalists and human rights investigators have reported declining human rights in BRI countries. A notable example is observed in Xinjiang, Kazakhstan which is considered as a historical gateway to Eurasia. Since the launch of BRI in 2013, Xinjiang authorities, with Chinese government support, have implemented “reeducation” and anti-Islamic programs targeting minority groups like the Uighur Muslims. Leaked Chinese government documents, satellite imagery, and testimonies from former detainees provide evidence of the existence of camps that violate human rights. Despite this, Chinese officials claim these camps are merely schools aimed at combating terrorism and religious extremism dismissing reports as “fake news”.
The Chinese government has also provided significant infrastructure funding through the BRI without enforcing adequate standards to protect vulnerable communities, often in concert with authoritarian governments. The construction of these large-scale infrastructure projects is regularly complemented with suppressing opposition, silencing critical civil society groups and controlling media criticism.
In Cambodia, the Chinese state-owned electricity company China Huaneng Group (“CHNG”) constructed the Lower Sesan 2 dam project as part of the BRI without community consultation and adequate relocation and compensation. Nearly 5000 indigenous people and ethnic minorities were displaced without proper resettlement. This incident sparked debates over the negligence of the Cambodian government at the behest of CHNG. Officials ignored communal concerns and objections on river ecology, impact on local fisheries and environmental concerns such as flooding. Moreover, it failed not only to provide adequate compensation but also adequate dispute resolution and grievance redressal mechanism. As such, no “free, prior and informed consent” of the affected indigenous people was obtained, as specified under the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
Similar concerns were raised in Guinea, where the construction of the Souapiti Dam devastated lives and food security in the region. There is no evidence that China required Chinese or Cambodian companies involved in dam construction to follow international corporate social responsibility standards, provide fair compensation for damages, or adhere to the standards applicable within China. Furthermore, the Chinese government has not ensured that companies involved in large-scale BRI projects conduct proper social and environmental impact assessments, nor does it consult with affected local communities meaningfully during the planning and construction phases. Another instance has been noted whereby Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) employees working in Imperial Pacific’s casino in Saipan reported human rights abuse, citing forced labour, human trafficking and failure to compensate for physical injury in addition to underpayment and violating federal immigration and employment laws.
Increased Instances of state surveillance in BRI countries
An alarming trend has also emerged whereby many participating countries are actively imitating the Chinese model of repression of free speech, less democratic accountability and Chinese-inspired cybersecurity laws. China has been selling surveillance technology to Belt and Road partners, many of whom misuse these systems. Beyond providing technology, China promotes digital authoritarianism by training governments on monitoring and controlling their populations. A 2018 study revealed that at least 18 countries, including Rwanda and Venezuela, use Chinese-made surveillance systems, and 38 have Chinese telecom infrastructure 36 countries have received training on Chinese-style media control, including censorship disguised as public opinion management.
For instance, following Chinese cybersecurity training in 2017, Vietnam enacted a law mirroring China’s, and similar restrictive laws have emerged in Uganda and Tanzania. Through these efforts, China is enabling governments to commit human rights abuses in the digital age.
The primary usage of these surveillance models has also been seen in Zimbabwe and Venezuela, which are noted to have received a commercialised version of China’s ‘Great Firewall’. France’s Le Monde newspaper reported large volumes of data being transferred from the Chinese-installed servers in the African Union’s headquarters in Addis Ababa to unknown servers hosted in Shanghai every night between January 2012 to January 2017. While China denied the data theft and surveillance allegations, it is believed that the African Union kept the Chinese surveillance secret for a year after discovering it.
Initiatives like the Digital Silk Road further enable digital authoritarianism by exporting Chinese hardware, software and services for a more controllable, government-led internet. Arabic countries such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and Morocco are actively adopting the Chinese tech-authoritarian model. Examples from Egypt show how Chinese surveillance equipment from Dahua and Hikvision were used to monitor and track Uyghurs in the region. In 2019, the Uzbekistan government procured 883 surveillance cameras for the “safe city” in Tashkent to “digitally manage political affairs”.
Conclusion
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has transformed from an economic and infrastructural project into a multifaceted geopolitical strategy, significantly expanding China’s influence globally. While the initiative has facilitated large-scale infrastructure projects in many developing countries, it has also been linked to the erosion of democratic institutions that includes widespread human rights abuses, debt traps and state surveillance. Countries participating in the BRI often face increased pressure to accommodate Chinese interests, leading to reduced government accountability, weakened labour laws, and the suppression of civil liberties. The use of Chinese surveillance technology and the export of digital authoritarianism have further entrenched autocratic regimes, allowing for tighter government control and diminished freedoms. The spread of Chinese surveillance models and cybersecurity laws in regions like Africa, Asia, and the Middle East reflects a broader pattern of authoritarian governance enabled by China’s technology exports and training programs. Many countries have adopted policies that closely mirror China’s, demonstrating the growing influence of Beijing’s political model. These developments challenge the global democratic order by promoting a government-led, highly controlled internet infrastructure.
Ultimately, while the BRI is achieving its goal of expanding China’s economic reach and market access, its broader impact raises significant concerns about the future of governance, democracy, and human rights in participating nations. As more countries adopt Chinese practices of surveillance, censorship, and authoritarian control, the global community must confront the long-term implications of the BRI on political freedoms and international human rights standards.
(From 'The PML Daily')
Pakistan’s CII: Championing Oppression at Home and Abroad
In an interesting move that has puzzled human rights advocates and religious freedom supporters worldwide, Pakistan’s Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) – a constitutional body tasked with advising the government on Islamic issues – has praised China’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang as a paragon of religious liberty. This endorsement comes from the very same institution that routinely advocates for intensified persecution of Pakistan’s own religious minorities, particularly the Ahmadi Muslim community.
The Council’s recent actions highlight a disturbing pattern of supporting authoritarian control over religious expression, both domestically and internationally. The Council recently dispatched an 11-member delegation to China, including a visit to the Xinjiang region, at the invitation of the Chinese government. Upon their return, the Council’s chairman, Dr. Muhammad Ragheb Hussain Naeemi, made a series of startling declarations. He asserted that Muslims in Xinjiang have achieved “economic and religious freedom” thanks to Chinese policies, and went on to commend China for purportedly eradicating extremism and terrorism in the region.
This rosy assessment stands in contrast to the findings of governments, human rights organizations, and international bodies worldwide. Extensive documentation has revealed China’s systematic campaign of mass detention, pervasive surveillance, forced labor, and cultural suppression targeting Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. Many experts and governments have characterized these actions as genocide or crimes against humanity. The willingness of Pakistan’s Council of Islamic Ideology to parrot Chinese propaganda raises serious questions about its integrity, independence, and true purpose.
The Council’s controversial stance on Xinjiang, while alarming, is hardly surprising given its history of advocating for regressive and discriminatory policies within Pakistan. Established as a constitutional body in 1962, the Council has increasingly become a platform for hardline clerics to push their agenda under the guise of official religious guidance. Its 20 members, predominantly religious scholars from conservative backgrounds, wield significant influence despite their recommendations not being legally binding.
In recent years, the Council has repeatedly called for harsher treatment of Ahmadi Muslims, a minority sect that Pakistan declared non-Muslim by constitutional amendment in 1974. The persecution of Ahmadis in Pakistan is already severe, with the community facing legal, social, and economic discrimination. Yet, the Council consistently pushes for even more draconian measures.
A recent example of the Council’s extremism came after Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that Ahmadis could at least practice their faith inside their homes and places of worship. The Council protested vehemently, issuing a statement that shocked many for its blatant disregard for basic human rights. It demanded that Ahmadis “must not be allowed to profess or preach in any manner even within their houses, community centers or in places of worship” and should be “unequivocally declared as apostates.” Such rhetoric from an official government body not only serves to further marginalize an already persecuted minority but also potentially incites violence against them.
The Council’s extremist positions extend far beyond targeting Ahmadis. It has consistently opposed legislation aimed at protecting women’s rights and combating domestic violence. In a particularly controversial move, the Council argued that girls as young as nine years old can be married, drawing widespread condemnation from child rights activists and progressive elements in Pakistani society. Perhaps most infamously, the Council suggested that husbands should be allowed to “lightly beat” disobedient wives, a recommendation that sparked outrage both domestically and internationally.
In the realm of economics, the Council has made equally outlandish proposals. It once called for abolishing Pakistan’s paper currency system in favor of gold and silver coins, a suggestion that economists dismissed as impractical and potentially disastrous for the country’s already fragile economy. These examples illustrate the Council’s tendency to prioritize a narrow, fundamentalist interpretation of Islamic law over practical considerations and modern human rights standards.
While the Council’s recommendations are not legally binding, its constitutional status lends significant weight to its pronouncements. This often leads to confusion among the public and provides ammunition to extremist elements within Pakistani society. Critics argue that the Council has become a tool for hardline clerics to legitimize their regressive agenda, using the veneer of official religious guidance to push Pakistan towards greater conservatism and intolerance.
The Council’s praise for China’s Uyghur policies reveals a deeply cynical worldview – one in which religious freedom is defined not by the ability of individuals to practice their faith freely, but by the power of the state to control and dictate religious expression. By endorsing China’s approach, the Council tacitly admits that its vision for Pakistan is one of authoritarian control over religious life rather than true pluralism and tolerance.
This stance is particularly troubling given Pakistan’s own struggles with extremism, sectarian violence, and the persecution of religious minorities. Instead of promoting interfaith harmony and protecting the rights of all citizens, the Council of Islamic Ideology appears more interested in exacerbating these problems. Its willingness to turn a blind eye to the well-documented oppression of Muslims in China, while simultaneously advocating for oppression at home, exposes the hollowness of its claims to defend Islam and Muslim interests. The Council’s actions also highlight the complex and often contradictory nature of Pakistan’s foreign policy, particularly its relationship with China.
As a self-proclaimed Islamic republic, Pakistan often positions itself as a defender of Muslim rights globally. However, its strategic and economic ties with China have led it to remain conspicuously silent on the plight of Uyghurs. The Council’s endorsement of Chinese policies in Xinjiang takes this silence a step further, actively legitimizing oppression in the name of combating extremism.
Calls for reform or abolition of the Council have grown louder in recent years, with some parliamentarians and civil society activists arguing that it has outlived its purpose. They point out that Pakistan already has a parliament and judiciary capable of ensuring that laws comply with Islamic principles, making the Council redundant at best and harmful at worst. However, dismantling or significantly reforming the Council faces significant obstacles.
Religious conservatives in Pakistan view the body as a crucial safeguard against secularization and Western influence. Any attempt to limit its powers or alter its composition is likely to be met with fierce resistance from Islamist parties and their supporters. As Pakistan grapples with the challenges of the 21st century – including economic development, social cohesion, and regional stability – the role of institutions like the Council of Islamic Ideology becomes increasingly questionable. Its recent endorsement of China’s policies in Xinjiang, coupled with its history of promoting discrimination and intolerance at home, suggests that it is more of an obstacle to progress than a force for positive change.
(From 'Greek City Times')
China’s Economic Slowdown Triggers Urgent Stimulus Calls
China’s industrial output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices weakened further, bolstering the case for aggressive stimulus to shore up the economy and help it hit its annual growth target.
The sluggish data released on Saturday echoed soft bank lending figures on Friday, underscoring weak growth momentum of the $18.6 trillion economy, the world’s second-largest, in the third quarter. Industrial output in August expanded 4.5% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.1% pace in July and marking the slowest growth since March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday.
That missed expectations for 4.8% growth in a Reuters poll of 37 analysts. Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose only 2.1% in August despite the summer travel peak, decelerating from a 2.7% increase in July. Analysts had expected retail sales, which have been anaemic this year, to grow 2.5%.
“The momentum is slowing down…The bottleneck remains domestic demand,” said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ’s senior China strategist. China’s oil refinery output fell for a fifth month while crude steel output in August fell 6.1% from July, suggesting disappointing demand. Faltering Chinese economic activity has already prompted global brokerages to scale back their 2024 China growth forecasts to below the government’s official target of around 5%. The economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter.
“The Q3 GDP is likely to be lower than Q2 based on current data flows. We expect large-scale stimulus to come soon,” said Xing. President Xi Jinping urged authorities on Thursday to strive to achieve the country’s annual economic and social development goals, state media reported, amid expectations that more steps are needed to bolster a flagging economic recovery.”As we are already toward the tail-end of the third quarter, time is running low for policymakers to introduce measures to buoy the economy amid numerous headwinds,” said Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING.
The protracted property slump has led to Chinese consumers cutting back on spending. Some experts have even proposed distributing shopping vouchers to counter the trend. Premier Li Qiang said last month the country will focus on stimulating consumption and look at measures to boost household income. A central bank official said last week China still has room to lower the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves while it faces some constraints in cutting interest rates.
No Property Sector Rebound
Fixed asset investment rose 3.4% in the first eight months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, compared with an expected 3.5% expansion. It grew 3.6% in the January to July period. Liu Aihua, spokesperson of NBS, said at a press conference on Saturday that China’s economic operations remained stable, but high temperatures and natural disasters affected growth last month. Cash-strapped local governments issued bonds at a quicker pace in August for construction of major projects, with Liu saying the quickening bond issuance and policy initiatives will support investment growth.
However, the troubled property sector remains a major drag on growth. China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than nine years in August. Only two of 70 surveyed cities reported home prices gains both in monthly and annual terms in August. Property sales and investment slumped in the first eight months of the year. To aid the housing market, China may cut interest rates on over $5 trillion in outstanding mortgages as early as this month, according to Bloomberg News.
While Beijing has ramped up efforts to rescue the housing market, many analysts say much more aggressive steps are needed to help debt-laden developers and encourage would-be home buyers back to the market. Some other economic indicators released on Saturday too were unflattering. China’s nationwide survey-based jobless rate climbed to 5.3% in August from 5.2% in the previous month, the NBS said, adding that more college graduates entered the job market to hunt offers. The one bright spot for China recently has been exports, but analysts are not sure for how long the trend of rising exports will continue, given the increasing trade tensions with some countries and regions.
Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said investors will shift focus and wonder what will happen to growth in 2025.”Will the tight fiscal policy stance continue into next year, when global growth will likely slow down and put pressure on China’s exports?,” Zhang said. China’s economy slowed in August, with factory output, consumption, and investment all underperforming expectations. The jobless rate hit a six-month high, raising concerns about meeting the annual growth target. The broad slowdown has darkened the economic outlook, prompting calls for stronger policy measures as the year-end approaches.
Raymond Yeung, ANZ’s chief economist for Greater China, stated that August’s data essentially eliminates the possibility of achieving the 5% growth target for 2024 without a significant stimulus package. Home prices dropped at the fastest rate since 2014, indicating weak confidence and the risk of deflation. Despite multiple rate cuts, borrowing remains sluggish, reflecting poor consumer and business sentiment. This bleak data suggests that authorities need to take decisive action to revive growth. Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, noted that with the third quarter nearly over, time is running out for policymakers to implement measures to support the economy amid various challenges.
Before Saturday’s release, global banks like JP Morgan Chase already predicted China’s GDP would hit the lower end of Beijing’s target. Economists urged more action to avoid stagnation similar to Japan’s “lost decades.” The latest data underscores their concerns, showing even resilient sectors are slowing. Industrial output grew slower than expected, marking a four-month weakening streak, the longest since September 2021. This suggests the main economic drivers, exports, and government support, are losing momentum amid rising trade tensions.
ING’s Ms. Song noted that while external demand might hold up for a bit longer, incoming tariffs and slowing global momentum warrant caution. She highlighted that the auto sector could shift from a positive to a negative force, as car output dropped 2.3% in August year-on-year. State-driven investment has been slowing, but the private sector’s decline is more pronounced, with private investment falling 0.2% year-on-year from January to August, marking its first decline this year.
During a press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the tough external environment and weak domestic demand. Spokesperson Liu Aihua pointed to new college graduates as a factor in the rise of urban unemployment in August. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China announced plans to intensify efforts against deflation and introduce new policies to boost the economy, a rare move alongside credit data release. A day earlier, President Xi Jinping urged officials to diligently implement current economic policies to meet annual development goals.
(From The Hong Kong Post)
Will India Extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh?
Months after deadly unrest in Bangladesh forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to leave office and flee to India, Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal has issued an arrest warrant for the veteran leader.
Prosecutors claim the 77-year-old Hasina is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of students and protesters this summer.
She has been ordered to appear in court on November 18. Citing alleged crimes against humanity, the tribunal directed the new Bangladeshi government to produce Hasina and 45 others charged along with her before this date.
It was reported that more than 60 complaints have been filed against Hasina and other leaders of her Awami League party for alleged enforced disappearances, murder and mass killings.
Bangladesh to activate extradition treaty
Hasina fled to India in a military helicopter on August 5 amid escalating violence that ended with more than 1,000 dead. The transitional government in Dhaka revoked her diplomatic passport soon after her escape.
Still, Indian officials continue to shelter Hasina under tight security in a safe house in the outskirts of New Delhi. Even her daughter Saima Wazed, who works in Delhi as the regional director for Southeast Asia in the World Health Organization, has not been able to see her.
India has shown no inclination to extradite Hasina to its neighbor to the east.
In Bangladesh, the interim government's legal adviser Asif Nazrul said Dhaka would strongly protest if India tried to refuse the extradition, saying New Delhi is obligated to do so under a criminal extradition treaty signed in 2013.
"India is certainly bound to return Hasina [to Bangladesh] if India honestly interprets this," Nazrul told the media last week.
However, the treaty does allow for extraditions to be refused if the offense is of "political nature."
India pursuing 'diplomatic strategy'
Officials in India's Foreign Ministry have been sidestepping questions on extradition, pointing out that the former Bangladeshi premier traveled to India for "safety reasons."
"On the stay of the former prime minister, I had earlier mentioned that she had come here at short notice for safety reasons and she continues to be here," Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesperson for the External Affairs Ministry, told reporters.
The issue has forced New Delhi into a balancing act. The Indian government realizes Hasina's presence could hamper its efforts to build strong diplomatic ties and trade relations with the new interim administration in Dhaka, but Hasina had also built up excellent ties with India during her time in office.
"India's decision regarding Sheikh Hasina must balance legal obligations, humanitarian principles and strategic interests. The key considerations include legal assessment, human rights obligations and diplomatic strategy," Karan Thukral, an Indian Supreme Court lawyer specializing in extradition matters, told DW.
Fight between law and diplomacy
According to Thukral, India has the option to refuse the extradition request, especially if there are credible concerns about charges being politically motivated and potential judicial proceedings in Bangladesh being unfair.
"In matters of extradition, especially involving political figures, it's imperative that we uphold the sanctity of legal principles over expedient diplomacy," said Thukral.
"India's response to Sheikh Hasina's situation will not only affect bilateral relations but will also reflect the country's commitment to the rule of law and the protection of fundamental human rights," said Thukral.
Hasina could challenge extradition request in court
Sreeradha Datta, a professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs, believes India will not react immediately if Bangladesh presents it with an extradition request.
"These issues take time, as technical and judicial processes are involved. But more importantly, India will have to weigh in on the political considerations surrounding such a request," Datta told DW.
India's former ambassador to Bangladesh, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, pointed out that Hasina has legal tools of her own to fight the extradition process.
"Hasina will have the option of challenging it in court, which will take its own time," Chakravarty told DW. "Moreover, there are clauses in the treaty related to political offenses which are not extraditable. I am unsure what will finally happen but my guess is that government can refuse to extradite," he said.
Can Bangladesh afford to alienate India?
Bangladesh is India's biggest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at $15.9 billion (€14.55 billion) in the fiscal year 2022-23. Under Hasina, India emerged as the foremost development partner and before her ouster, both sides were due to start negotiating a free trade deal.
In return for economic support, India was able to rely on Hasina's administration to control security risks like human trafficking, infiltration and terrorist activities along the shared border.
Since the regime change in Dhaka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken with interim leader Muhammad Yunus and pledged that New Delhi will continue implementing its development projects across the border.
Yunus is now facing a balancing act of his own — pursuing what Hasina's critics see as justice for hundreds of victims, while at the same trying to preserve India's support as well as economic and political stability while moving toward new elections, which Bangladesh hopes to hold next year.
Is There a Future for Central Asia’s Indian Ocean Transport Projects?
Central Asian countries are actively exploring new trade routes that could connect them to the Indian Ocean, focusing on partnerships with Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. These routes offer the potential for expanded economic ties with India, the Gulf states, and even East Africa, promising new opportunities for regional trade. However, the realization of such ambitious projects is fraught with political challenges. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, internal instability, and security concerns in key transit countries pose significant hurdles.
Difficult Choices
Central Asian countries face two main options for accessing the Indian Ocean: through Iran or through Afghanistan in order to gain access to Pakistani ports. The key challenge is the presence of political conflicts along both routes, especially against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East. On the surface, the deterioration of relations between Iran and Israel casts doubt on the further implementation of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Similarly, the situation regarding Pakistani ports is equally uncertain. Central Asian nations, particularly Uzbekistan, are promoting the Trans-Afghan railway to gain access to Pakistani ports, as it would enable connection to the Persian Gulf countries, which are actively advancing their own cooperation frameworks with Central Asian countries and are ready to expand investment and economic partnerships.
Additionally, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will provide Uzbekistan with the opportunity to become a Eurasian logistics hub.
However, the current situation in Pakistan presents difficulties to realizing the full potential of these projects. The trade route through Pakistan, particularly via the Gwadar and Karachi ports, faces its own set of challenges. The domestic political situation in Pakistan remains unstable, with occasional instances of anti-Chinese terrorism, exemplified by the October 2024 attack near Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport. Such security threats undermine investor confidence and complicate the development of Pakistani ports, making them less attractive to Central Asian countries seeking reliable access to the Indian Ocean.
Moreover, Pakistan’s difficulties regarding trade with Central Asian states have been exacerbated by confrontations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Taliban Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai urged Pakistan not to block Afghan agricultural exports during the harvest season, threatening that the Taliban could shut down the transit of Pakistani goods to Central Asia.
The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, signed in 2010, allows for the transit of Afghan goods through Pakistani ports. Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has declined over the years due to border tensions and restrictions, dropping from $2.5 billion in 2010 to $1.8 billion in 2022-23. Afghanistan’s reliance on Pakistani ports for its international trade has been affected by these disputes. The closure of key border crossings like Torkham has resulted in significant financial losses for traders on both sides. Consequently, Afghanistan has sought alternative trade routes, such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, to reduce its dependence on Pakistani ports. This move is seen as a strategic shift to bypass Pakistan and access global markets.
How Central Asian States Address These Challenges
One example of how a Central Asian state is managing the emerging conflicts in Iran and Pakistan is offered by Kazakhstan’s policy. At this stage, Kazakhstan supports the implementation of two transport routes through Afghanistan: the Trans-Afghan railway “Termiz-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar” and “Herat-Kandahar-Spin Boladak.” Kazakhstan intends to execute the first project alongside Uzbekistan and the second with Turkmenistan. The second project provides Kazakhstan with a strategic opportunity to redirect part of its traffic to Iranian ports in the event of a conflict on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
During the implementation of this project, there is the possibility of directing cargo from Kandahar to Afghanistan’s Farah, then to Zaranj on the border with Iran, and subsequently to Iranian ports. Afghanistan is actively utilizing these routes due to conflicts along its border with Pakistan. Since the beginning of 2023, when Pakistan introduced stricter conditions for Afghan transit trade, including increased import tariffs and the requirement of 100 percent bank guarantees, Afghan traders have been actively seeking alternative routes through Iran. In October 2023, Pakistan imposed new taxes and restricted the transit of certain goods, leading to significant financial losses for Afghan traders. These measures resulted in an increase in the number of containers delayed at Karachi port, affecting the freshness of perishable goods and other products. Afghanistan has invested $35 million in developing the Chabahar Port in Iran to reduce its dependence on Pakistan.
Overall, it is crucial for Central Asian countries to have as many options as possible to expand their economic ties. Therefore, routes through Iran within the framework of the INSTC are also of great interest.
The Promise of the INSTC
Initiated in 2000 by India, Iran, and Russia, the INSTC has evolved into a genuine multilateral integration initiative. Over the years, its membership has expanded to include the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan expressing interest in joining. The corridor’s strategic significance lies in its potential to offer a 30 percent cheaper and 40 percent shorter alternative to the Suez Canal route, reducing transit times from 45-60 days to 25-30 days.
For the energy-rich Central Asia states, the INSTC offers a lifeline that can help diversify their export markets. It provides access to the Indian Ocean, enabling these landlocked nations to reach Southeast Asian markets. Despite its promise, the INSTC faces significant political headwinds. The escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel poses a direct threat to the corridor’s stability. Recent events, such as Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes, have intensified security dilemmas in the Middle East. These tensions risk embroiling Iran in a broader conflict, potentially leading to disruptions along the INSTC routes passing through Iranian territory.
Western sanctions against Iran and Russia further complicate matters. These sanctions limit both countries’ access to global financial markets, hindering infrastructure development and deterring potential investors. The sanctions regime not only affects Iran’s ability to participate fully in the INSTC but also impacts the willingness of other countries to engage with Iran, amid fears of secondary sanctions.
However, it is important to consider the active development of relations between the Gulf countries and Iran. Following a meeting with a Qatari delegation at the Iran Expo 2024 international exhibition, Iran’s Minister of Industry Abbas Aliabadi expressed both sides’ interest in implementing joint investment projects. It is anticipated that the countries will finance mutually beneficial initiatives and enterprises in the fields of industry, agriculture, logistics, and infrastructure in Africa and Asia, as well as in Iraq and Afghanistan. Against this backdrop, Central Asian countries could also be sufficiently involved in implementing Iran-Qatar joint investment projects.
In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume diplomatic ties under a China-brokered deal, ending a seven-year rupture. This agreement aimed to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf and facilitate high-level diplomatic exchanges. Despite the normalization agreement, tensions remain due to ongoing regional conflicts, particularly in Yemen and Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is concerned about Iranian influence in these regions. Recent diplomatic efforts include a visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Saudi Arabia in October 2024 to discuss attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, indicating a cautious approach to improving relations. Additionally, Kazakhstan and Iran are discussing joint ventures in logistics and transportation. For example, a joint venture with Abu Dhabi Ports is planned to facilitate the delivery of agricultural goods through Iranian ports. This initiative demonstrates some Gulf states’ desire to contribute to connectivity with Central Asia through Iranian ports. Against this backdrop, another major player interested in developing ties with Central Asian countries – India – also emerges.
India’s Strategic Imperatives
For India, the INSTC is more than just a trade corridor; it’s a strategic asset. By providing a route to Central Asia, via Iran, that bypasses Pakistan, the INSTC aligns with India’s broader goals of enhancing connectivity and counterbalancing China’s growing influence through the Belt and Road Initiative. The corridor also offers India direct access to energy resources in Central Asia, crucial for meeting its burgeoning energy needs.
India has been proactive in promoting the INSTC, organizing meetings with member countries and investing in infrastructure projects such as Iran’s Chabahar Port. The port serves as a pivotal node in the INSTC, offering India a foothold in the region and a gateway to Afghanistan and beyond.
Despite the challenges, there are signs of progress. In July 2022, the INSTC commenced operations through its eastern route, linking Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran to India. The inaugural shipment demonstrated the corridor’s viability, reinforcing its potential to handle between 14.6 and 24.7 million tonnes of freight annually by 2030. This capacity would account for over 70 percent of all container traffic between Eurasia, Central Asia, the Gulf region, and South Asia.
The recent diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia also offers advantages. Improved relations could lead to increased investments and cooperation, bolstering the INSTC’s development. The INSTC holds significant promise for energy trade between India and Central Asia. By providing direct access to energy-rich nations like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the corridor could help India bridge its energy demand-supply gap. The Ashgabat Agreement further enhances this potential by facilitating connectivity and promoting the use of existing land routes, such as the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway.
Mitigating Risks and Charting the Path Forward
The future of Central Asia’s Indian Ocean transport projects depends on the region’s ability to navigate geopolitical tensions, security challenges, and economic uncertainties. To address these risks, Central Asian countries must embrace regional cooperation, diversify their trade routes, and build strategic partnerships. Developing multiple transport corridors, such as enhancing both Iran-based routes within the INSTC framework and the Trans-Afghan railway, will ensure greater resilience against disruptions. Strengthening collaboration among Central Asian states through joint infrastructure investments and harmonized trade regulations can create a more stable and unified trading environment.
Building robust partnerships with key regional and global players like India, the Gulf states, and China is essential for supporting Central Asia’s connectivity ambitions. India’s investment in the INSTC and projects like the Chabahar Port highlights the importance of such alliances. Additionally, investing in modern transportation infrastructure and improving security measures will enhance the efficiency and reliability of new trade routes, attracting more investment and fostering economic growth.
(Source: The Diplomat)
India’s Diaspora in the Gulf: A Catalyst for Global Influence
India’s global diaspora has long been a cornerstone of its international influence, with over 18 million Indians living and working in countries around the world. While this community thrives across continents, the Gulf countries have become particularly important, serving as a vibrant hub for millions of Indian expatriates. In nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, Indians are not just contributing to the economies of their host countries but are also playing a pivotal role in enhancing India’s global standing. As India’s journey toward becoming a new superpower unfolds, its diaspora in the Gulf countries is increasingly recognized as a crucial component in this ascent.
The Indian expatriate community in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is estimated to number over eight million, representing one of the largest and most significant diaspora groups in the region. This community has grown dramatically over the past few decades, driven by economic opportunities in sectors such as construction, healthcare, hospitality, and finance. The contribution of Indian professionals, laborers, and entrepreneurs to the region’s infrastructure development, business ecosystem, and service industries has been profound.
In the UAE alone, Indians make up approximately 30% of the total population, and in countries like Oman and Qatar, they constitute a significant part of the workforce. What sets the Indian diaspora in the Gulf apart is its diversity: while a large proportion works in blue-collar jobs, an increasing number of Indian professionals are rising to prominent positions in business, finance, technology, and healthcare. From managing multi-billion-dollar companies to leading critical infrastructure projects, the Indian presence is felt at all levels of the Gulf economy.
The financial remittances sent back to India by Gulf-based Indians have been instrumental in supporting India’s economy. In 2022, India received an estimated $100 billion in remittances, with a large share coming from the Gulf region. These remittances have played a vital role in bolstering India’s foreign exchange reserves, stabilizing its currency, and supporting the livelihoods of millions of families back home.
However, beyond the sheer economic contribution, the Indian diaspora in the Gulf has also facilitated stronger trade and investment ties between India and the GCC. Indian entrepreneurs and business leaders in the Gulf have been key to attracting investments into India’s infrastructure, technology, and real estate sectors. These investments not only strengthen bilateral relations but also contribute to India’s broader economic growth and ambition to become a global manufacturing and innovation hub.
As India’s stature rises on the global stage, its diaspora in the Gulf plays a critical role in projecting its soft power. Indian cultural and social organizations in the Gulf promote India’s rich heritage, from Bollywood cinema to classical arts, further enhancing India’s global image. Indian festivals such as Diwali and Holi are celebrated with great enthusiasm in cities like Dubai and Muscat, underscoring the deep cultural ties between India and the Gulf nations
Moreover, the presence of influential Indian leaders in the Gulf’s corporate and political spheres has helped amplify India’s voice in international forums. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made strengthening ties with the Gulf a priority, resulting in increased collaboration on issues like energy security, counter-terrorism, and technology. Indian expatriates often serve as informal ambassadors, fostering goodwill and contributing to the robust diplomatic relationships that India enjoys with Gulf states.
India’s growing influence in the Gulf is not just about economics and culture—it has significant strategic implications for India’s rise as a global power. The Gulf is one of the world’s most important geopolitical regions, home to vast energy reserves and critical maritime routes. India’s close ties with Gulf countries ensure access to crucial energy supplies, which are vital for its growing economy.
Furthermore, India’s strategic partnerships with Gulf nations, fostered in part by its diaspora, have enhanced its standing in international platforms such as the G20 and the United Nations. India’s leadership in these forums, as seen during its G20 presidency, is amplified by the strong relationships it maintains in the Gulf, making the diaspora a key asset in India’s diplomatic toolkit.
The Indian diaspora in the Gulf is a dynamic and integral part of India’s global identity. Their contributions to both their host countries and to India itself are significant, extending beyond remittances and economic ties to include cultural influence and diplomatic engagement. As India continues its ascent on the global stage, its Gulf diaspora will remain a critical force in shaping the country’s path toward becoming a true global superpower.
India’s diaspora is not merely an extension of its population; it is an active participant in its global aspirations, reflecting and amplifying the country’s ambitions in new and unprecedented ways. Through its people, India is cementing its position as a rising power, with the Gulf serving as a critical partner and platform for its growing global influence.
(Source: Khaleej Times)
UN Rights Body Concerned at Internet/Social Media Blackouts in Pakistan
The UN Human Rights Committee also called the Committee on Civil and Political Rights (CCPR) on rights violations and raised concerns at the social media surveillance, internet and social media apps blockage to maneuver general elections, religious intolerance, ban on student unions as well as curbs on the media and freedoms of expression and movement.
This happened on the second day of the review of human rights conditions in Pakistan in a meeting in Geneva on Friday.
Questions were raised by the UN committee chair on curbs on freedom of association, saying “according to information received the legislative framework at the federal and provincial levels imposes unnecessary barriers to exercise this right. We have seen in many areas the NGOs have their finances and plans inspected and all this is being used to interfere in the work of some NGOs. There are many reports that national as well international NGOs are subjected to constant investigation and harassment on the part of security operators and govt officers.”
She asked about the measures being taken for a conducive environment for the NGOs to work independently as well as laws to remove the rules that hinder their freedom of association.
The committee chair said student unions had been prohibited for more than 40 years.
“University students have to sign a sworn declaration where they reject any political activity as a basis for prerequisite for admission to a university. Similarly, Pashtun and Baloch students are subjected to arbitrary disciplinary hearings and suspensions given their political activity.” She asked about the measures to remove the prohibition on student unions and creating a conducive environment for student unions.
Child rights and anti-rape laws
The committee noted the low level of birth registration in Pakistan, saying only 42 pc of children under 5 had registered birth.
A committee member raised the matter of the recent alleged rape incident of a private college girl, saying that despite claims of anti-rape laws for protection of women, there was a recent incident of rape of a girl at the ‘Punjab Girls College’ and that the procedures were ignored there.
“What measures will the state party take to ensure that that law is properly implemented to avoid political interference?” she asked.
“The committees on juvenile justice are not operational which means there are limited operation on juvenile justice or those in police custody who have no capacity to pay for their bail. There is an absence of rehabilitation centres and programmes that violate the juvenile justice.”
A committee asked about the progress made to modify the legislation to stop the child marriages 1929 law to change the minimum age for marriage to 18 years, raising questions about the non-implementation of an order passed by the Lahore Court, ruling that the minimum age should be increased to 18 years.
Hindu and Christian girls’ conversion
The UN committee raised the issue of forced conversions, expressing shock at the magnitude of cases of Hindu and Christian girls abducted or obliged to convert to Islam, marry their abductors or relatives.
The committee rejected the number of cases to be 74 as reported by the state party, saying the actual number was much more. “Sometimes these cases don’t even reach courts and when they do, the girls are not sent back to their families but to their abductors or sent to shelter most of them don’t have necessary conditions to protect these victims. Some of these girls are exposed to sexual exploitation.”
Religious intolerance and blasphemy
A committee member pointed out that religious minorities such as Shia Muslims, Christians, Ahmadis, Hindus and Sikhs were subject to frequent attacks and threats, including accusations of blasphemy, targeted killings, lynchings, mob violence, forced conversions and desecration of places of worship.
“The society has become increasingly intolerant of religious diversity. The minorities are facing a constant threat of persecution and discrimination amid the rise of religious radicalism.”
She said the criminal law amendment act of 2023, instead of curbing sectarianism, had increased persecution of minorities and minority sects by increasing punishment for using derogatory remarks against holy persons from three years jail to life imprisonment.
“We received information two days back that Rabwa secretary of general affairs and Chiniot district administration had been informed that if Islamic signs are not removed from religious places of Ahmadis by Oct 28, the TLP would take action on its own.” The committee sought information on amendment of blasphemy law to prevent misuse of blasphemy laws.
Freedom of movement and expression
The UN rights body raised the matter of freedoms of movement and expression and the authorities’ use the exit control list to restrict freedom of movement to suppress dissent.
A member said that critics of government and human rights defenders, including Mama Qadeer, Mahrang Baloch, had faced unjustified travel restrictions. The application of restrictions must be based on clear legal grounds. The committee raised concerns at the passport applicants to obtain declaring their religion especially Ahmadi applicants required to identify as non-Muslims to obtain passports.
The committee stressed that defamation laws should be carefully implemented so that they don’t stifle freedom of expression and that imprisonment was never an appropriate penalty for defamation.
“Defamation remains a criminal offence in the PPC and the Prevention of Electronic Crime Act with penalty of imprisonment and fines.
Punjab Defamation Bill 2024 passed without stakeholders consultations raises concerns as it emphasizes prosecuting public officials and allows fine without proof of actual damage which can lead to repression or intimidation.“
It sought review of defamation provisions to align with international laws.
Curbs on the media and self-censorship
A committee member referred to the reports of Pemra exceeding its mandate and using directives as tools for censorship of journalists and media outlets and suspension of licences of news channels.
This concern has been exacerbated by the amendment to Pemra Amendment Bill which introduces definition of misinformation that may enable censorship under the guise of giving authentic news.
“Despite the enactment of protection of journalists and media professionals act three years ago implementation remains weak and commission required under the act is yet to be established. Threats, harassment, abduction violence enforced disappearances and killing of journalists are rampant, leading to self censorship.” He asked about safety measures in place for journalists and human rights defenders.
Internet outages and online surveillance
A UN committee member referred to the censorship including the frequent outages and blockage of social media apps or slower connectivity raises serious concerns about information control and violation of freedom of expression.
“In May 2023 protests, there were four days of internet blackout and social media shutdown followed by frequent outages and restrictions continuing until general elections which prevented voters from accessing polling information and limiting communication.”
She said the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (Peca) grants authorities power to charge individuals, particularly young people, with blasphemy based on digital media.
“It makes online defamation of authorities a crime, it allows authorities to block content and law enforcement to collect without a warrant and allows data sharing with foreign governments without legality.
We know that the intelligence service was granted power this year to conduct surveillance for national security. We have multiple examples of Peca being used for unlawful surveillance.“ She raised concerns about involvement of the cyber crime wing of the FIA in charging hundreds of young people with blasphemy based on social media content. It sought information, if any, to review the discretionary powers of surveillance to the state agencies
Bonded labour issue
The UN rights committee said that more than three million Pakistanis were trapped in forced labour, servitude and bonded labour, particularly in the farming sector, brick kilns and domestic work.
“After the floods of 2022, more people, particularly children, have been forced to work despite the national and provincial laws. How the state intends to control the menace and the steps taken to combat the forced labour and conditions of servitude including among children particularly in context of the climate change.” She also asked about the measures taken to curb the advance payment that often leads to servitude and sexual exploitation of children. She asked whether labour inspectors have got resources to carry out investigations effectively.
The Pakistani delegation, headed by Malik Muhammad Ahmad Khan, presented a report on the state of human rights in the country and replied to some of the questions raised by the committee during the review under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).
Pakistan ratified the ICCPR in 2010 and the first review took place in 2017. It was the second one of the review on Friday.
(From Dawn)
