Trump vs. Harris: What's at Stake for Bangladesh?

Many analysts believe that the outcome of the U.S. election, whether it’s Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, could significantly impact Bangladesh. This discussion has intensified, particularly after a tweet from Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In the past, U.S. politicians, especially Democrats, have shown strong ties with Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Advisor of the Bangladesh government. A Democratic administration typically emphasizes democratic processes and human rights worldwide. If Kamala Harris or the Democrats come to power, experts anticipate smoother business and cooperation opportunities for Bangladesh.

According to Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert and author at the Wilson Center, if Kamala Harris wins, the current U.S.-Bangladesh relationship may continue as it is. However, he cautions that a Trump presidency could change this dynamic. Kugelman notes that Bangladesh is one of the South Asian countries where the U.S. election outcome could have a significant impact on bilateral relations.

Former Bangladeshi Ambassador to the U.S., M. Humayun Kabir, expressed concern that a Trump victory could reduce U.S. humanitarian aid globally, which could have consequences for Bangladesh, particularly on issues like the Rohingya crisis, as a large portion of U.N. aid for the Rohingyas in Bangladesh comes from the U.S.

Historically, Donald Trump has not been seen as a conventional U.S. president. His approach to foreign policy often creates uncertainty. Usually, a change in U.S. presidency doesn’t bring drastic shifts in foreign policy, thanks to strong institutional structures, notes Dr. Mehnaz Momen, a professor at Texas A&M University. However, Trump has sometimes suggested altering institutional structures, which could lead to a significant shift, though Momen remains skeptical about how much this would impact foreign policy.

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Recently, a Trump tweet regarding minority oppression has sparked discussion in Bangladesh, but analysts view it more as a strategy to appeal to Hindu voters in the U.S. than a signal of future policy.

Chief Advisor’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam mentioned that certain lobby groups might have influenced this statement, hinting that this might refer to Awami League or India. In previous Bangladeshi elections, U.S. support initially leaned toward a firm stance on election credibility, but later, India’s backing of the Bangladeshi government became a critical factor.

Former ambassador Kabir notes that India might play a role in Bangladesh’s bilateral relations if Trump wins, particularly given Trump’s strong ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This could create concerns for Bangladesh if its relationship with India remains strained, as U.S. foreign policy often views Bangladesh through an Indian lens.

If Kamala Harris wins, due to her favorable ties with Dr. Yunus, there could be greater friction between U.S. and Indian perspectives on Bangladesh, Kugelman suggests.

Bangladesh’s potential role as a rising market has also attracted U.S. interest in areas like major power equipment, Boeing aircraft, and gas or LNG supply. Many Bangladeshis live, study, and work in the U.S., highlighting a valuable people-to-people relationship.

Analysts believe that Bangladesh’s future relations with the U.S. will be influenced by various factors, including the U.S.’s evolving geopolitical interests in South Asia and its connection with Dr. Yunus. Ultimately, a range of factors will shape the future of U.S.-Bangladesh relations.
(Source: BBC)