Germany is heading to the polls after a tense election campaign marked by concerns over the economy and rising security issues, particularly migration, following several deadly attacks.
At the forefront is Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old conservative leader, who is positioned to become Germany's next chancellor. The vote has drawn significant attention across Europe and the United States. Merz has promised to tackle the nation’s problems within four years, a bold claim for Europe's largest economy, which faces ageing infrastructure and economic challenges.
Should Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) win, he will need to build a coalition with at least one other party, likely with the Social Democrats (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, whose government collapsed late last year. However, Merz has ruled out a partnership with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is poised to become the second-largest party, surpassing Scholz's SPD.
Around 59.2 million Germans are eligible to vote, with millions already casting ballots by mail. Polls suggest that up to 20% of voters remain undecided as the election day approaches. The results are expected to be clear by the evening after polls close at 18:00 (17:00 GMT).
Voter engagement is high, with intense campaigning continuing through the weekend, including a final national TV debate on Saturday night, the ninth of its kind this month. This election is seen as a turning point for Germany, as the country faces crucial decisions both domestically and on the world stage. Merz has pledged strong leadership in Europe, but Germany is also under pressure to increase military spending, especially as a major provider of aid to Ukraine.
In the face of rising tensions, particularly over migration, Germany’s political landscape has been shaken by US Vice-President JD Vance's meeting with AfD's chancellor candidate Alice Weidel. Vance's call to break the long-standing taboo of engaging with the far-right is controversial, as it challenges Germany's political norms.
The AfD, known for its anti-immigration stance, has grown in popularity across the country, especially in eastern states but also in the western regions. The party has found new appeal among younger Germans, particularly through social media platforms like TikTok. One of Weidel's campaign videos has garnered over four million views, and her message is simple: "Vote AfD, break the firewall, and change German politics."
On migration and security, the AfD has been vocal following several attacks allegedly committed by migrants, including a stabbing at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial on Friday, which has kept the issue in the public eye. The party advocates for "remigration," a policy that includes deporting migrants who commit crimes and, controversially, may involve mass deportations.
The AfD has established itself in areas like the Ruhr Valley, Germany's former industrial heartland, which has seen economic decline. In the northern areas of Duisburg, the party has gained significant traction, with support reaching 20-30% in certain districts. Many voters, especially younger people, cite economic stagnation and lack of job opportunities as key reasons for supporting the AfD.
In both the eastern and western parts of the country, the AfD's influence is expanding, particularly in cities that have suffered from deindustrialization. Sociologist Prof. Conrad Ziller of the University of Duisburg-Essen points out that frustration over migration and the economy is fueling the party's rise, with many people perceiving the government as ineffective in addressing their concerns.
Despite the AfD's momentum, some parties may struggle to cross the 5% threshold required to secure seats in the Bundestag. This could result in a more streamlined parliamentary landscape, making it easier to form a majority coalition. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was part of the outgoing government, faces a real risk of failing to meet the threshold, as does the left-wing populist party BSW. Meanwhile, the Left party has seen a surge in support and is projected to become the fifth-largest party after the Greens.
This election marks a critical moment for Germany as the country grapples with its future direction in both domestic policy and global leadership.
