The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has launched a "massive testing and research effort" that will determine "what has caused the autism epidemic" by September, its Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Thursday.
"By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic, and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures," Kennedy said in a cabinet meeting.
The number of autism diagnoses in the US has been rising for decades. About 1 in 36 children were identified with autism spectrum disorder in 2020. That's up from 1 in 150 children in 2000, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
"The NIH (National Institutes of Health) is fully committed to leaving no stone unturned in confronting this catastrophic epidemic — employing only gold-standard, evidence-based science." HHS Director of Communications Andrew Nixon said in a statement Thursday.
But experts are highly skeptical of Kennedy's claims that he will be able to determine the causes of autism in just a few months.
After spending decades researching the genetic and neuroscientific causes of autism, "the idea that we can suddenly find the causes by September is unrealistic," said Geoff Bird, a cognitive neuroscientist and autism expert at University of Oxford and University College London, UK.
What causes autism?
There are many different signs of autism, and people don't necessarily experience them in the same way . For some, social communication can be challenging or even overwhelming. Others might have difficulties with learning or hypersensitivity to sensory stimuli like touch or light.
As described in medical texts, autism spectrum disorder arises from alterations in the brain's development during early life. Research has shown that in people with autism, there can be a wide range of changes in how the brain functions.
Scientists are "very sure there is a genetic basis," said Bird. Around 80% of autism cases can be linked to inherited gene mutations.
Changes in certain genes like MECP2 have been found to alter brain development, but the evidence that specific changes are directly linked to autism isn't clear.
"Diagnosis of autism has always been the biggest challenge in autism research, because we don't have a biological marker of autism," Bird told DW. He added that this has created challenges for researchers trying to understand the biological causes of autism.
Autism awareness and broader diagnostics behind its rise
Experts say the biggest reason why diagnoses of autism have increased is that clinical and social definitions have changed frequently since autism was first described 80 years ago.
"Now it's common to diagnose people with much more subtle difficulties, so that explains some of the increased prevalence," said Bird.
Changes in screening methods have also helped experts catch signs of autism in girls more often.
"Autism was mostly defined by how it presents in boys, and girls' diagnoses were fit to that. Now we are expanding what counts to meet diagnostic criteria for autism to account for female representations," said Bird. "The natural consequence is that autism prevalence increases."
The neurodiversity movement has also contributed to broader diagnostic criteria. Autism awareness movements have helped people understand how their own experiences might not be neurotypical.
"Awareness has likely increased folk seeking an assessment and diagnosis, and so (they) can feel relief when they find answers and potential next steps," said Suzy Yardley, CEO of Child Autism UK, a non-profit organization.
Scientists are also investigating whether factors like pollutants, changes in the gut-brain axis, or the immune system might have a direct effect on neurodevelopment and autism.
However, Bird said the evidence around these theories is "not convincing".
"No doubt pollutants do bad things, but I would be surprised if they were increasing rates of autism," he said.
Vaccines do not cause autism
The claim that vaccines are behind rising rates of autism has been repeatedly and vigorously disproven.
Over the past two decades, scientists have carried out many large-scale and rigorous studies to determine whether any aspect of vaccination could cause autism. None showed any links whatsoever between autism and vaccines given either during pregnancy or after birth.
"No link has been found between autism and vaccines, including those containing thimerosal, a mercury-based compound," according to the US-based National Institutes of Health (NIH).
The false claim that vaccines cause autism originally came from a paper published in 1998 suggesting a link between the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and problems with brain development.
Later, the study was found to have serious errors and was retracted. Yet the damage done by the paper lives on.
Kennedy's history of anti-vaccine advocacy is well-documented. And last month he told the CDC to study the links between vaccines and autism, despite the agency's own previous research showing no link.
The HHS Secretary has also downplayed a measles outbreak in Texas that has infected 500 people and killed two unvaccinated children.
Autism community advocates are skeptical of Kennedy's goals
Advocates for the autism community met the HHS Secretary's announcement with skepticism. The UK's National Autistic Society called Kennedy's claim a "fake news publicity stunt."
"We're stunned by the callous and anti-science way autistic people are talked about by Trump and RFK Jr." said Tim Nicholls, Assistant Director of Policy, Research and Strategy at the UK's National Autistic Society. "Wouldn't it be better if they could deploy their huge financial resources to making life better for autistic people and their families, and improving society's understanding of autism?"
Bird said "tensions" in the way people think about and research autism are common, particularly when it comes to the idea of reducing it or wiping it out. Some advocacy groups argue that autism is not an illness, and "therefore there is not anything to 'cure'," Yardley told DW.
But others argue that those who argue autism isn't a disorder "outweigh the voices of a large number of people with autism who feel their lives have been negatively affected by having autism," Bird said.
