After a deadly gun attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam, India and Pakistan's relationship has entered a new phase of heightened tension. Holding Pakistan responsible for the attack, India has unilaterally announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
In response, Islamabad has issued a strong warning, calling the move a de facto "declaration of war" and threatening retaliation with both conventional and nuclear forces.
India's National Security Committee decided to suspend the treaty this Wednesday, reportedly as a move to increase pressure on Pakistan.
Pakistan's National Security Council (NSC) issued a statement on Thursday, saying that water is the country's "lifeline," tied to the existence of over 240 million people. Therefore, blocking the water flow would be considered an act of war, and Pakistan would not hesitate to respond with military force.
The NSC's statement added, "Any attempt to block or divert Pakistan's water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty, or deprive the rights of the lower riparian areas, will be treated as an act of war and met with the full spectrum of national power."
Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the media, "I completely reject the allegations imposed by the Indian government—strongly reject them."
He further stated, "We have no connection with the armed groups operating in Indian-administered Kashmir."
In addition, Pakistan has suspended visas previously granted to Indians under the SAARC program and ordered all Indian citizens, except Sikh pilgrims, to leave the country within 48 hours.
Analysts say India's move is not just symbolic—if any dam, reservoir, or water-blocking project is implemented, Pakistan may launch military strikes to destroy them, and some even suggest that the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out.
One defense analyst said, "If India builds a reservoir or dam that infringes on Pakistan's water rights, Pakistan will destroy it using military force—even if that means a nuclear strike."
Another expert emphasized, "Water has been declared a matter of national interest now. Any threat to it will trigger immediate military action from Pakistan."
Former Indus Water Commissioner of Pakistan, Jamaat Ali Shah, believes India's decision is a "political tactic and an effort to calm public sentiment." According to the treaty, it cannot be unilaterally terminated or suspended. Any changes require mutual consent from both countries.
However, Indian officials say they used the word "suspend" rather than "terminate" deliberately, which may serve as a strategic move before the World Bank. India claims that if Pakistan addresses its security concerns, the treaty could be reinstated.
Given the situation, international relations analysts are not ruling out the possibility that these two nuclear-armed neighbors could be drawn into full-scale war over the waters of the Indus River.
