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Fuel Oil Supply May Exceed Demand in Global Market Next Year: IEA
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17 Nov 2024, 15:37
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that supply may exceed demand in the global fuel oil market next year.
On Sunday (November 17), the IEA organization reported this information from the forecast of a rapid increase in oil production in non-OPEC countries. Reuters news.
According to the IEA, in 2025, more than 1 million barrels of oil may be extracted per day. The main reason for this is China's weak economy. Because China is the largest buyer of crude oil in the world. The country's economy continued to shrink in September. In addition, the use of electric vehicles is increasing in China. As a result, the demand for fuel oil is decreasing. China's demand was the 'main pressure' on global oil demand this year.
Meanwhile, outside the 13 petroleum exporting countries, the United States, Guyana, Argentina, and Brazil are seeing rapid growth in oil production. The countries are on track to increase production by a combined 1.5 million barrels per day. Which is higher than IEA's oil consumption growth forecast (990 thousand barrels per day).
On the other hand, the OPEC Plus countries are withdrawing from their decision to reduce their production by 2.2 million barrels per day. They can start the work of increasing the production quota from next January.
However, even if the OPEC plus countries led by Saudi Arabia do not deviate from their decision, there will be an oil surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day compared to global demand in 2025. With the volatility in international markets caused by COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and unrest in the Middle East, only a relaxed supply situation can restore stability.
The IEA said that Trump's victory in the US election and his 'Do The Business' policy will change the war situation. The Russia-Ukraine war could ease and destabilize the Middle East. It will also affect the oil market.
The United States has retained its position as the world's largest oil producer for six consecutive years. Last August, the country's domestic production reached a daily record of 13.4 million barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
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Banking Sector Reforms Underway, Customers Confidence Being Restored
The banking sector has been on the path of development since the interim government took over. Looting in the name of loans has stopped, and customers are regaining confidence in deposits. As a result, the liquidity crisis has started to decrease.
Under the leadership of the dictator Sheikh Hasina, the Awami misrule of almost 16 years has been the festival of looting and money laundering. A large part of this was taken from the bank by the party leaders and workers in the name of fake company loans. Several banks are now on the verge of bankruptcy due to such unusual looting.
But hopefully, the banking sector has started to turn around since the interim government took over. According to the data of Bangladesh Bank, at the end of last August, 43 banks out of 61 scheduled banks have excess liquidity, amounting to Tk 1 lakh 90 thousand 306 crores.
Excess liquidity in five state-owned banks is Tk 63 thousand 670 crore. Of this, only Sonali Bank has 49 thousand 43 crores. 31 private banks have 91 thousand 674 crore taka. Besides, additional liquidity in 9 foreign banks is 34 thousand 677 crores.
Banking sector expert Dr Toufic Ahmad Choudhury said that the owners or the board used to collect deposits from all the employees. Then they took them under the name of sharing and lending. As these are stopped, the confidence of the customers is returning. As a result, deposits in banks are also increasing.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, Senior Research Fellow of Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said, that if the hide-and-seek game that has been going on in the banking sector for a long time is not overcome, people's trust will not be returned.
Mahfuz Kabir, the research director of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) said that Banking
Govt to No Longer Determine Electricity, Gas Prices
Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) will determine the price of electricity and gas from now, said Muhammad Fauzul Kabir Khan, the adviser for the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.
He stated this at a seminar related to 'energy' organized at a hotel in the capital on Sunday (October 20).
Muhammad Fauzul Kabir Khan said, "Not the government, Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) will determine the price of electricity and gas from now on through public hearings. This decision will come through BERC."
He said that the previous government also cheated on people about fuel. They were not interested in gas exploration. They were interested in building a power plant citing urgent reasons and increased demand.
The energy adviser said that the government has no objection if any organization wants to take the initiative of renewable energy production. However, if they want to sell electricity to the government, they must come through a tender.
He also said that currently, the elected government is not in power, but the interim government has taken charge. There is no designated bidder in the ministry now.
Fauzul Kabir said about the movement on various demands, "There is no opportunity to accept all the demands. If you think this government is weak, you will be wrong. Banking Commission is necessary to build a strong banking sector in the future."
Forex Reserves Rise as Governor Assures Economic Stability
Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H. Mansur has reported an increase in foreign currency reserves since the interim government took office, following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina administration amid a student-led uprising against inequality. He assured that if things go smoothly, economic stability could return within the next year.
Key Stats:
Foreign Reserves (as of October 8, 2024): Net Reserves $19.82 billion, Gross Reserves $24.97 billion
Debt Repayments: Government Debt Initially $2.5 billion for power, fuel, and essential services; Repaid in Last 2 Months $1.8 billion; Remaining Debt $700 million
Foreign Debt Burden: $103 billion
Loan Plans: Central bank preparing to secure $10 billion in new international loans
Outlook: Target to clear remaining debt in 2 months; Economic stability expected to return within 1 year
In an interview with UNB on Sunday (October 20), the governor said that while reserves were previously depleting by $1.3 billion per month under the previous government, they are now on a positive trend. He added that significant payments have been made to settle debts related to fertilizer, electricity, and some loans owed to Adani and Chevron, reducing the overall debt burden.
The governor further disclosed that the government owes around $2.5 billion to various service providers for electricity, fuel, and other essential services. However, in the past two months, the central bank has repaid $1.8 billion, bringing the outstanding debt down to $700 million.
He expressed optimism that reducing these debts would ease pressure on the economy. "Our target is to clear the remaining debt within the next two months. If we succeed, market liquidity will improve, leading to a boost in economic activities," he added.
As of October 8, according to the IMF's BPM6 reserve calculation method, Bangladesh’s net foreign reserves stood at $19.82 billion, with the gross reserves at $24.97 billion.
The central bank is also preparing to secure an additional $10 billion in loans from international organizations. However, Governor Mansur expressed concerns over the growing burden of foreign debt, which currently stands at $103 billion. He cautioned that patience will be required over the next year to manage the situation effectively.
Bangladesh Receives $1,532.66 Million Remittance in 19 Days
Expatriate Bangladeshis sent around $1,532.66 million in remittances during the first 19 days of October in the fiscal 2024-25.
Of this, remittances through state-owned and specialized banks accounted for $478.98 million, while private banks received $1,049.66 million.
According to the Bangladesh Bank data, during the 19 days, six state-owned commercial banks - Agrani, Janata, Rupali, Sonali, Basic, and BDBL - received $400.82 million while one state-owned specialized bank- Bangladesh Krishi Bank- received $78.16 million.
Of the state-owned banks, Agrani Bank received $95.17 million, Janata Bank $105.50 million, Rupali Bank $96.06 million, Sonali Bank $104.05 million and Basic Bank received $0.04 million.
Besides, the expatriates have sent $1049.66 million through private commercial banks.
The highest $308.15 million remittance came to the country through Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd.
Gold Climbs to Record Highs in World Market
Gold hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $2,777, breaking all previous records in the world market. For the first time in the world market, the price of one ounce of gold exceeded 2,777 dollars.
On Wednesday (October 30) until 9:30 am, the price of one ounce of gold in the spot market was 2,777.78 dollars.
Traders are turning to gold as a safe-haven investment amid the Middle East conflict, volatility in the labor market, the Ukraine war, and rising odds for a Trump victory in US elections. Due to these reasons, the price of gold in the world market is on an upward trend, according to Reuters.
Bank of America, one of the leading investors in the world's financial sector, considers gold to be the most ideal investment at the moment. Michael Widmer, an expert from Bank of America recently said, "Gold is ideal for investment in the current situation. Gold is best suited to mitigate investor risk at the moment, especially as inflation and government debt continue to rise.
Predicting the continuation of the rising trend of gold prices, Bank of America said that the price of gold will rise to three thousand dollars per ounce by the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, to deal with the inflation situation, the central banks are more inclined to buy gold to maintain the value of their currency, according to various international media. Currently, 10 percent of the world's central banks' reserves are gold. Which is just 3 percent of their total reserves even a decade ago.
From June this year, gold prices started to increase at an unusual rate. Last June 7, the price of gold per ounce was 2,293 dollars. After that, the price increased gradually, on October 18, the price of gold per ounce was 2,700 dollars for the first time in the world market. In less than a week, the price of gold per ounce increased to $2,750.
If the price increases in the world market, it affects the country's market as well. So the price can be adjusted in the country's market as well at any time.
Bangladesh Jewellers Association (BAJUS) determines the price of gold in the country's market. As such, Bajus last adjusted the price of gold in the country's market on October 22. The organization fixed the price of 22-carat gold at Tk1,41,951 after increasing the price by Tk1,890.
Besides, the price of gold was fixed at Tk1,35,501 per bhori of 21-carat, Tk1,16,138 per bhori of 18-carat, and Tk95,423 per bhori of traditional method gold. It came into effect on October 23 last.
It should be noted that the price of gold has been adjusted 44 times in the country's market so far this year. Among them, the price was increased 27 times and decreased 17 times. In 2023, the price was adjusted 29 times.
World Bank Pledges $1 Billion to Bangladesh's Export Development Fund
The World Bank will provide $1 billion to the Export Development Fund (EDF) in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bank’s Executive Director and spokesperson, Husne Ara Shikha, confirmed this on Wednesday (October 30), citing Governor Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur.
She mentioned that Dr. Mansur, along with economic, trade, and science and technology advisor Salehuddin Ahmed, visited Washington, D.C., this month to attend the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings. Upon his return, the governor shared the news of this loan from the World Bank.
Officials at the central bank stated that, as part of the IMF’s conditions for a $4.7 billion loan, the EDF fund size has been significantly reduced over the past year. The fund, which was at $7 billion during the COVID period, has recently decreased to $2.5 billion.
According to Bangladesh Bank, the EDF was established in 1989 with an initial $3.872 million. When foreign exchange reserves surged during COVID, the EDF was increased to $7 billion in 2022. However, the subsequent economic situation, with rampant money laundering and the dollar shortage after the Ukraine war in February 2022, led to a shortage. Abdur Rouf Talukder then took over as the new governor of Bangladesh Bank.
Governor Talukder emphasized reducing the EDF, which was lowered to $4.77 billion in May, $4.6 billion in June, $3.21 billion in July, and $2.91 billion by August after the change of government. By September, it further declined to $2.77 billion and has continued to decrease since.
It was reported that lending from the EDF was paused mid-last year to meet the IMF’s conditions for the $4.7 billion loan, and later resumed on a limited scale.
Sources indicate that approximately $600 million has been tied up with the top 40 companies, including Bismillah, Crescent Group, and Beximco, with around $250 million owed by just eight groups.
EU Agency Finds Banned Chemicals in Some 6% of Cosmetics
A pilot enforcement project found that around 6% of inspected cosmetic products contained hazardous substances banned under European regulations, the European Chemicals Agency said in a statement on Wednesday.
The ECHA said that national enforcement agencies in the 13 European Economic Area (EEA) member states — including Germany — checked almost 4,500 cosmetic products, and found banned substances in 285 of them.
The investigators were looking for a series of chemicals banned or restricted under a pair of EU regulations, the POPs Regulation banning persistent organic pollutants, and the REACH Regulation on the registration, evaluation, authorization, and restriction of chemicals.
Offending chemicals found 'mainly looking at the ingredients list'
The ECHA said that its pilot project had for the most part used a very simple methodology for tests carried out between November 2023 and April 2024.
"The inspections were mainly done by checking the ingredients list — measures that can be easily used also by consumers," it said.
"Consumers should be aware that the restricted substances were found in different types of cosmetic products, from various sellers and at all price ranges," it said.
Enforcement agencies had taken some first steps to remove the non-compliant products from the market, the ECHA said.
"In most cases, the first step was issuing a written advice guide to suppliers on how to comply with the law. At the time of writing the report, investigations were still ongoing in about half the cases," the ECHA said.
Pencil eyeliners and lipliners, conditioners and hair masks among the items
The Helsinki-based organization was primarily seeking indications of the presence of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), long-chain perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) and related substances, and cyclic siloxanes D4 and D5.
It said it often found perfluorononyl dimethicone, which degrades into PFOA and PFCAs, in pencil and crayon eyeliners and lipliners — and that D4 and D5 were often present in conditioners and hair masks.
"PFOA and siloxanes, D4 and D5, break down slowly in the environment and build up in humans and other species. PFOA is not only persistent in the environment but also toxic to reproduction and suspected of causing cancer. D4 is also suspected of damaging fertility," the ECHA said.
